Finally, we experienced meaningful baseball for a whole day. The vast majority of major league baseball teams (the Yankees and Nationals were eliminated after kicking off on Thursday) played a regular season game on Friday for the first time since September 29, 2019. It felt so good to watch the best players in the world trade in their games. It was way too long ago.
Well, this version of opening day overreactions will definitely be fun, just like I’ve done in recent years. The overreactions to a game in a 60-game season are still there, but they are nowhere near as silly as crazy about a game in a 162-game marathon. A game now counts almost three times as much as normal. It should be noted, however, that part of it will be mitigated by 16 out of 30 teams playing the playoffs. So, yes, we still shouldn’t overreact. Let us go through some possible overreactions and discuss their validity.
Yo is back! Diaz is fixed …?!
The Mets won 1-0 against the Braves behind the outstanding work of Jacob deGrom and the Bullpen, who could keep up with the zeros. The lonely run came courtesy of a solo shot by Yoenis Cespedes (full story here). Edwin Diaz locked in ninth place and gave Freddie Freeman a walk – and it’s never a bad decision to be careful with him and a one-time lead – and nothing else.
So, yes, Mets fans, going crazy. Diaz is fixated with his newfound confidence and Cespedes is back, giving the Mets a ridiculously deadly combination of power with Pete Alonso and Cespedes. Be excited!
The reality here is that these two overreactions could actually prove to be true. Diaz was an absolute beast before being traded to the Mets and falling apart last season. At the age of 26 it is not the case that he hits a wall due to age. He only blew a few games and then it became a lost season. It happens to the best. The trip on Friday will likely give him the confidence that all he had to do was turn the calendar to 2020. I would bet he is back. The problem is that we can’t definitely be over it. We have to see more than a four stroke trip to be sure.
The same applies to Cespedes. He only played 81 games in 2017 and 38 games in 2018 before missing out on 2019. He hadn’t played a meaningful game in over two years. The home run was very exciting and it looked good, but it is also 34 years old and has not been used for some time.
Careful optimism is fine. It’s been a big overreaction in the past.
Yelich is broken
Former MVP Christian Yelich, who could have won playing twice in a row last year before a broken kneecap got him out of the way, had big problems in his summer camp games. It was consistently well documented. The reports of the actual numbers were different, but it was about 4 to 34 with 16 strikers. That was the most common record I found.
Friday against the Cubs, he didn’t look good at all. He knocked weakly on the pitcher in his first stroke and then struck twice before landing harmlessly on ninth place with a runner (technically it was the choice of a field player). It swung and missed five times, including twice with two strikes.
Overreaction gone!
It is quite possible that he will not be there for a year after something that could have turned out to be a career-changing injury. The smart money, however, is that this is a superstar in the midst of its heyday and that he will find out something at some point. Even if he cannot return to the MVP level, he was previously an all-star level.
The reds are the outbreak that many thought it was
The Reds were a trendy choice to win NL Central, and they came out of the gate incredibly strong. They scored seven runs with nine hits and allowed only one run (a solo homer) and three hits. Sonny Gray was excellent on the hill. They have not burned any of their top-class backend helpers. Mike Moustakas had quite a red debut and went 3 on 4 with a huge home run. Joey Votto had two hits, including a home run. Shogo Akiyama made her RBI single debut in two bats. Nick Castellanos had an RBI double. It was a fairly complete performance with lots of good signs. They seemed to be as great as many thought.
But they played the tigers. The first inning for the Reds was achieved with a walk, single and then two straight hit batsmen before Moustakas singed and Cameron Maybin summarized the 2020 Tigers.
The red ones could be great. We cannot overreact and say that beating a cruel team proves nothing.
The upstart Padres too!
The Padres are a team that I’ve been pushing for weeks as a good sleeper this season. Months likely. The Diamondbacks were a playoff contender last year, adding starlings Marte and Madison Bumgarner in the off-season, making them an outstanding opponent preparing for the brothers’ opening day.
And the Padres, behind Chris Paddack’s dominance (6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K) on the hill, high-quality bullpen work and Eric Hosmer exploded with three hits, including a pair of three RBI doubles and looked absolutely like the contender. Tommy Pham stole two bases, Fernando Tatis looked like a star as usual, Jurickson Profar took two walks to load the bases in front of Hosmer with two outs to set the table for the six RBI night, and this team had generally just the look of a San Diego team is going to gather.
Of course it’s just a game. It was 0-0 for a while. The timeliness of the Hosmer doubles was happy and the whole game swung on them. But man, it was hard not to be happy about the Padres. As I would like to say, careful optimism is probably the right track here, San Diego.
Oh oh, Phillies
Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola looked like an elite-level pitcher in the first five months of 2018. Since then he’s been more than awesome and sometimes even mediocre. Friday the Marlins got him for four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He hit seven against one step, but was thrown around in a sixth run with four runs.
In the meantime, the Phillies’ offensive was only two runs with five goals. They were mainly dominated by Marlin’s starter Sandy Alcantara.
Nothing has changed? Are the Philies still mediocre rather than good? If so, does that mean fourth place in NL Ost … or worse? The Marlins handled them lightly.
I would say there is some level of concern here, but let’s not go crazy. Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto have done nothing on the plate and they are safe bets to play the rest of the way on a constant basis. The pitching part is a little worrying, but Zack Wheeler has been added to last year’s group. They are better than they played.
Blue Jays> Rays
Look at that. The “Buffalo” Blue Jays have a lot of young talents and brought Hyun-Jin Ryu as Staff Ace. The Rays are a playoff team believed to be the greatest threat to the Yankees in AL East. The Jays went in and punched Rays’ ass Charlie Morton in the mouth. A Cavan Biggio Homerun chased him with the following line: 4+ IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
The legacy trio Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero joined for four goals, four runs and three RBI in the first three slots of the order. Maybe they have arrived?
In the meantime, the Rays offense only collected five hits. Sure, they were on time enough to get four runs, but some of it is just luck. They went 5 for 33 and that’s an average of 0.152. Frankly, the lineup on paper doesn’t look that impressive.
Have the jays passed the rays yet?
Probably not. This was also just a game. However, I think the Jays will be competitive this season and it will be a lot of fun to see them. Even if they miss the playoffs, there is a good foundation.
Lucas Giolito: Annual Miracle
White Sox starter Lucas Giolito was the worst starter in baseball by ERA in 2018 among qualified starters with a miserable 6.13 ERA. Last year he made himself an all-star who finished sixth in the match with Cy Young. He is now expected to lead the rotation of an upstart on the south side of Chicago.
Friday night, Giolito was beaten for seven runs with six hits in 3 2/3 innings. He went three. The history of baseball is shaped by jugs that were short-term and in the long run simply could not do justice to this great season. Giolito seems to have a ticket for the one-year miracle status after the opening day, right?
I assume it is possible. I don’t think it’s likely. He was a talent developed in the first round of high school and a top 5 candidate for several years in a small league. He put everything together at the age of 24 last season and came across a crime with stacked twins on Friday. The smart money is that he will be fine. With only about 11 starts left and a stinker in the books, don’t expect a Cy Young. Speaking of awards and Chicago …
Hendricks for Cy Young!
Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs threw the second opening day since 2003 and the fifth since 1993 (full story here). He was remarkable in every way. He looked exactly like the Cy Young contender he was in 2016, though he has added a very effective curveball since then.
Hey, since there are only 11 starts left and there is already a shutout, this may not be an overreaction, but Hendricks hasn’t received a single Cy Young vote since 2016.
Globe Life Field is a pitcher dream
The Rangers debuted in a new stadium and won. I wonder how really excited the clubhouse is – at least on the position player side – after this. The two teams combined for a run with six goals. There has been some discussion in recent weeks about the possibility that this ballpark could be the opposite of Globe Life Park and could be a pitcher’s paradise. The first game sure looked like this. Lance Lynn is good. The German Marquez has a good upward trend and has generally been very good outside of Coors Field, but still this hasn’t given a hitter-friendly mood. It appears that the Rangers woke up to the Padres when they opened Petco Park.
Correct?
Let’s wait a second. It’s just a game. We did not declare Wrigley Field Pitcher’s Park after the 3-0 result with few hits on the opening day. We also have to take into account the above mention that the jugs are good, and we also have to keep in mind that the Rockies in general are pretty horrible when they strike away from Coors Field. It seems possible that this is a pitcher-friendly yard, but we don’t have enough to go on.
The tigers and orioles are terrible
Yes, that’s not an overreaction. They are both. Difficult to say which was worse, but it really doesn’t matter. You will select 1-2 again in next year’s draft.
