The receiver position is incredibly deep this season. I mean, deep. But that doesn’t mean that you should love each and every wide range at their current prices.
Last week, Elisha Twerski and I went back and forth to discuss – on Slack – about some ball carriers that we are moving away from in 2020. Now we are doing the same thing for the receivers.
What fades are we disappearing this season?
Austan Kas: The receiver position is loaded for 2020. I have to scroll far enough in the positional ADP of the July versions of BestBall10 to find openings that hurt me. That said, there are guys who I think are too expensive at the moment. Who is someone at the position on which you are absent for 2020? Can be an early game choice or a cheap player.
Elisha Twerski: Odell Beckham is the WR11 in ADP, and I just can’t think of it. The guy was the WR25 in 2019 despite his 16 games. In terms of points per game in half PPR, he was the WR32. In fact, in the semi-PPR, OBJ had 11 games last year in which he scored less than 11 fantastic points. It is not very good.
Last year, the Browns had a pass-to-run ratio of 1.47. It was the middle of the pack. Last season, newly hired head coach Kevin Stefanski was in his first year coordinating a Vikings attack with a ratio of 1.04, the fourth lowest. The season before Stefanski, Minnesota’s ratio was 1.81, the fourth highest. All this to say that Cleveland could launch a lot Less in 2020, no more.
The fact that the Browns added Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. – two guys who are good at blocking the race – should make people want to hit the rock. From 2018 to 2019, Stefon Diggs experienced a drop per target of 3.7, while that of Adam Thielen was even larger, at 4.8 per game. Does that make you want to go there and spend one of your top three choices on Beckham? I didn’t even mention the fact that the Browns signed the Austin Hooper tight pass and retained Kareem Hunt. Have you ever jumped on the OBJ ship? Also, for some strange reason, Jarvis Landry, despite an average of 2.2 more points per game as Beckham last year can be obtained 38.8 choices later.
Yes, I know Beckham suffered injuries in 2019, but it still doesn’t make sense to me. Did I miss something? What do you think of OBJ?
Austan Kas: So I agree with a lot of what you said. To play devil’s advocate a little, OBJ is still only 27 years old and had a terrible chance of hitting the wheels last year – scoring only four times despite 74 catches and 1,035 yards. And as you said at the end, he would have been rather roughed up.
For me, there is clearly a top seven off this season (not in any order) – Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Outside of this group, I can see why people would give OBJ the best chance of putting together an elite season. If he stays in good health, gets a better chance of hitting wheels and Baker Mayfield is not that bad, he could have a great season. These are a few, however, and I think you have raised several good points.
Elisha Twerski: The regression in touchdown makes sense if he were sure to get the volume he got last year, but he could see a drop in appearance. That worries me.
Who are you on?
Austan Kas: Cooper Coup is my biggest receiver fading to wideout this year, and anyone reading numberFire on regular probably already knows. I will try to regurgitate certain information from these two linked pieces in a new way.
Last season, Kupp was the WR2 PPR for weeks 1 through 8. From weeks 9 to 16, he was the WR43. Week 9 was the Rams’ week off, and they emerged with a different plan of attack after departure – namely, involving their tight ends more. Tyler Higbee benefited a lot while Kupp came out at the other end. According to AirYards.com, Kupp had a target share of 28% in the first half, and this clip dropped to 14% from week 9. Four touchdowns in the second half of the season really saved Kupp from its trough absolute.
I don’t think Kupp will be WR43 this year, but I think the change in the Rams’ attack after the bye was real, and some will continue. Coach Sean McVay actually talked about this offseason about wanting to also involve Gerald Everett.
The loss of Brandin Cooks will help some, but I think this passing game will go through Robert Woods and Higbee. I do not see the advantage for Kupp, and I also worry for the parquet. Kupp is the current WR16, two places before Woods leaves the board. I’ll take Woods all day on Kupp.
What do you think of Kupp? Am I overreacting to his strange second half of 2019?
Elisha Twerski: I don’t think you are overreacting – his shortened playing time on the stretch is not a good sign.
In this case, I think it’s a bit like overvaluing Kupp and undervaluing Woods. I have Woods as WR13, six places ahead of Kupp. It’s not the sexiest choice, which is why you can currently do it at WR18, but it’s great value.
As for Kupp, I will place him in the top 20 at the position. He has played 60% of the snaps in all games except one, and Cooks’ departure is a huge advantage. The only guy below him that I would definitely take over from Kupp is Woods. The others are all on the same level for me with regard to the floor and the ceiling.
Besides Woods, who else in this range would you choose before Kupp?
Austan Kas: AJ Brown, Tyler Lockett, Keenan Allen, DJ Chark and Stefon Diggs are all guys chasing Kupp that I would take before Kupp.
Maybe not Chark.
But I like these other guys more than Kupp for 2020.
Elisha Twerski: Whoa. I’m not sure I would take these before Kupp. I would consider Brown and Lockett, but that’s it.
Austan Kas: Maybe I’m too attached to him We will see. Our model has Kupp as WR23. I think there is a bunch of guys in this lineup who are all pretty much the same – I just listed a lot – but I’m really out of Kupp for 2020, obviously.
OK, so who is another wideout that you pass on?
Elisha Twerski: I erase myself DK Metcalf. I understand the plot, but I think the hype is going a little too far.
Metcalf was the WR41 last year in terms of points per game. He finished higher than WR23 just three times. It has been classified WR35 or worse 10 times. For some reason, it is currently coming off the board as WR21.
Just why?
It’s not like Seattle is a transient high volume offense. The Seattle Seahawks also added Greg Olsen and Phillip Dorsett in the offseason, and Will Dissly will return from an injury. This increased competition is not going to really help Metcalf. You can currently have guys like Chark, Allen, Terry McLaurin, DeVante Parker, Diggs and TY Hilton after Metcalf. What do you think of Metcalf in 2020?
Austan Kas: I almost chose DK as one of my fondues. I am fully on board here. I want Seattle to join us in 2020 and let its big quarterback throw it away. But that’s not what they do, and it caps here and lowers the floor.
Elisha Twerski: Why throw it away when you can run it for a lifetime every second back? It is the motto of Seattle.
Who else are you on?
Austan Kas: Darius Slayton is someone I cannot understand why it is valued where it stands. Right now it’s the WR41, and our model has it like WR54. I am much more aligned with our projections here than with Slayton’s ADP.
I think a lot of people expect Daniel Jones to take a step forward in year 2. Although it may happen, Jones hasn’t shown me too much as a rookie to get me on board. He finished 2019 with -0.03 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) by fall, which was the fifth worst among the quarters with more than 100 attempts. I think it could very well be one of the worst attacks in the league again in 2020.
Then there is the issue of target competition. Our model has Slayton third among the targets of the Giants receivers, predicting it for 84.8 looks, behind Sterling Shepard (111.2) and Golden Tate (98.9). But by ADP, it is reversed, with Slayton who leaves the table more than 20 choices before Tate and Shepard.
On top of that, Slayton was already experiencing a negative touchdown regression.
I just can’t buy Slayton at this price.
What do you think of him?
Elisha Twerski: I wouldn’t touch Slayton at its current price, but as a WR41, it’s not like you piss off your draft if you select it.
In this range, escapees like Shepard, Anthony Miller, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Jalen Reagor are much more attractive to my tastes.
Austan Kas: Yes. As you said, he’s cheap enough that it isn’t a big deal, but he’s still a guy I don’t waste my choice on.
Okay. Is there someone else you wanted to point out or are you ready to go?
Elisha Twerski: I’m not going to deepen these guys, but I’ll pass Diontae Johnson and Mecca Hardman to their current price tags. I think these two are classic cases of players who are considered “sleepers” to the point where there is little value left to their ADP.
And you? Anyone else you want to approach?
Austan Kas: I – and all of my dynasty actions – really wanted Hardman’s escape to happen this year, but I think we’ll have to wait until at least 2021.
But no, I’m fine. Thank you for taking the time to chat with me.
Elisha Twerski: Of course! I look forward to our close conversation next week where I can tell you that I’m bleaching your boy Jack Doyle haha.
Austan Kas: Leave TE1 for the rest of your league. How nice of you.
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