Although the final results of the 2022 Baseball Writers Association of America Hall of Fame election will not be known until they are announced on January 25 on MLB Network, it is a good time to identify some important trends in the voting process. now that we are close to the announcement.
Will Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and/or Curt Schilling be selected in their final year of eligibility on the writers’ ballot? What will happen to debutants like David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez in their first year on the ballot? Which candidates will make significant gains on the ballot early enough to someday get the 75% required to get into Cooperstown? And who could be dropped from the eligible list if they don’t get at least 5%?
Using data from Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker, we’re going to take a look at where things stand right now, with just a week to go before we know the results. As of Sunday at 7 pm ET, Thibodaux’s count included 170 ballots, or about 43.4% of the total estimated ballots.
Will anyone be chosen?
That’s the big question. It seems that Red Sox legend David Ortiz has the best chance of being inducted to Cooperstown, based on how things are going so far: He’s received 83.5% of the votes cast, but that’s not a guarantee that it will end up over 75% when all ballots are counted. Private votes that are not incorporated into the Thibodaux counter tend to cause a drop in the figure we see in the tracker, particularly for players who have been linked to the use of performance-enhancing substances (Ortiz, according to media reports, he failed a doping test in 2003, although there were no penalties at the time).
“The question that remains pending for Ortiz is whether the drop between what the counter shows and the number that will be revealed on the day of the announcement will be similar to what we have seen with Bonds and Clemens (last year they fell more than 11%) or in other cases (Andruw Jones, for example, was down 5.1%, while Todd Helton was down just 2.4%),” Thibodaux said. “If voters who don’t reveal their votes, or do so after the announcement, treat Ortiz as they have treated Bonds and Clemens, he will most likely end up below 75%. If they treat him more lovingly, as is the case with most other candidates, then he has a real shot at getting into the Hall of Fame on his first try.”
Ortiz certainly has the numbers to deserve such an honor: he hit 541 home runs, was an All-Star 10 times, won three World Series and is one of the most fearsome and timely hitters in postseason history, winning the Most Valuable Player of the 2004 Championship Series and 2013 World Series MVP. The question is, how much will that steroid connection affect his vote total?
Will Bonds, Clemens and/or Schilling be elected in their final year?
This year, four controversial names are on the journalists’ ballot for the last time: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and Sammy Sosa, whose ballot totals in previous years have suffered due to their links to steroids, are facing their last chance. Schilling’s chances don’t look good, either. Although last year he brushed the Hall with 71.1% of the votes, he is currently at 60%, a notable decline that is probably the product of the offensive comments he has made in recent years, including on social networks.
Bonds and Clemens’ totals over the years have been roughly similar. In 2021 they reached 61.8% and 61.6%, respectively. So far this year, Bonds — who set a record seven MVP awards and is the all-time home run leader (762) — is 77.1%, and Clemens — who has struck out 4,672 and has a record seven Cy Young Awards — he’s 75.9%. If both suffer similar drops from ballots that have been made public to those that have remained private as in previous years, it doesn’t look like either will make it.
“Their final percentage would improve again this year due to the change of groups and a small group of voters who changed from ‘Do not enter’ to ‘Do enter’ (so far they have a net amount of +2),” Thibodaux said. . “But we haven’t seen signs that we’ll see enough buy-ins or enough change in groups to make a bigger impact.
“The question mark for Bonds and Clemens is that because they historically haven’t done well with voters who keep their votes private, that also means there’s a chance they’ll get more votes from well-supported voters who made their ballots public. . If the voters who kept their votes private come close to matching this year’s public votes, then Bonds and Clemens might still have a chance.”
Alex Rodriguez, another notable candidate linked to doping during his career, debuts on the Hall of Fame ballot this year — so far he’s at 40.6%.
Who will see a big rise this year?
Four candidates appear to be making significant steps on their ballots — Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones.
Rolen, a seven-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove winner at third base, has received 12 votes from those who had the chance last year, bringing his total percentage to 68.8% — he received 52.9% in 2021 .
Helton, a five-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove first baseman for the Rockies, has seen an increase of 11 votes among those who cast a ballot last year to 56.5% — he received 44.9 % in 2021.
Wagner, a seven-time All-Star closer who had 422 saves, has seen an increase of nine votes — after receiving 46.4% of the vote in 2021, he now has 47.6%.
Jones, a 10-time Gold Glove winner in center field who hit 434 home runs, is up six votes, leaving him at 48.2% after seeing 33.9% last year.
Who would be left out completely?
The candidates in danger of not receiving the 5% required to remain on the ballot are Mark Buehrle (carries 5.3% in his second year of eligibility), Ryan Howard (carries 1.8% in his first year), Tim Hudson (carries 2.9% in his second year), Torii Hunter (has 1.8% in his second year), Tim Lincecum (has 2.9% in his first year), Joe Nathan (has 2.4% in his first year), Jonathan Papelbon (has 0.6% in his first year) and Mark Teixeira (has 0.6% in his first year).
The names that stand out from the list, taking into account the statistics in their careers, are Nathan, Papelbon and Teixeira. Nathan had 377 saves to go along with his 2.87 ERA in 16 seasons. Papelbon, who got the last out of the 2007 World Series for the Red Sox, posted a 2.44 ERA with 368 saves in 12 seasons.
Teixeira hit 408 home runs, won five Gold Gloves as a first baseman and was part of the Yankees’ team that won the World Series in 2009. His career bWAR of 50.6 is 6.7 more than Gil Hodges, the Dodgers’ great first baseman. which was recently immortalized by the Golden Days Era Committee.
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