Anyone who misses (too) many points will be punished in the 2nd league!
The database shows how fatal Schalke‘s stumbled start against Kiel (1-1) at the end of the season can be.
Of the 22 teams that have only had 31 points after the 19th matchday since the introduction of the 3-point rule, not a single one has finished first or second. is therefore (statistically) excluded.
Statistics prove: Schalke can no longer be promoted DIRECTLY!
Which gives a bit of hope: 4 of the 22 teams managed at least 3rd place and got promoted – Energie Cottbus (1999/00, 2005/06), Mainz 05 (2003/04) and 1. FC Köln (2007/08).
This would put Schalke’s current chance of promotion at 18 percent. But even this value is deceptive. Because the 4 teams went straight up as 3rd and didn’t have to go into relegation, which was only reintroduced in 2008/09.
Exciting, with how many points from the remaining 15 games they managed third place. Cottbus got 27 each (1.8 on average), Mainz had 23 (1.5 on average) and Cologne had 29 (1.9 on average).
Means: Coach Dimitrios Grammozis (43/”A 1-1 win against Kiel is not enough for our purposes”) and his team should start a real series as soon as possible. Although Schalke is unbeaten in three games, the result was not right in Hamburg (1:1) with a view to the strong second half.
If you want to go into relegation, you have to start winning again on Saturday in Aue!
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