ATP Ranking – Daniil Medvedev can become N.1 in place of Novak Djokovic on February 28 if…

Soon a new boss? Novak Djokovic, expected at the ATP 500 in Dubai (February 21-26) for his return to competition after the Melbourne fiasco, is guaranteed to remain world No.1 on Monday, but could be dislodged on February 28 by Daniil Medvedev, according to the ATP.

The Serb hasn’t played since the Davis Cup semi-finals in early December and, on the ATP Tour, since his year-end Masters semi-final in mid-November. The Russian, Australian Open finalist, beaten by Rafael Nadal, is expected to return to the ATP 500 in Acapulco (February 21-26), the same week as Djokovic in Dubai.

Here are, according to the ATP, the conditions under which Medvedev could become world No.1 on February 28 and replace Djokovic, who will then have raised the record for weeks spent at the top of the men’s tennis hierarchy to 361:

• If Medvedev wins the title in Acapulco, whatever Djokovic’s result in Dubai
• If Medvedev reaches the final in Acapulco and Djokovic does not win the title in Dubai
• If Medvedev reaches the semi-finals in Acapulco and Djokovic does not reach the final in Dubai
• If Medvedev reaches the quarterfinals in Acapulco and Djokovic does not reach the semis in Dubai
• If Medvedev loses in the 2nd round in Acapulco and Djokovic does not reach the semi-finals in Dubai
• If Medvedev loses in the 1st round in Acapulco and Djokovic does not reach the quarter-finals in Dubai

Djokovic is therefore guaranteed to remain world No.1 for 86 consecutive weeks since he returned to the throne on February 3, 2020. His longest streak is 122 weeks between July 7, 2014 and November 6, 2016.

If Medvedev dislodges him, he would become the third Russian N.1 in the world after Yevgeny Kafelnikov (1999) and Marat Safin (2000-2001). He would also become only the second player, after Andy Murray, to rise to the top of the world rankings for the first time since Djokovic first achieved it in July 2011. The last non-Big 4 player (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray) to have been N.1 at the ATP is the American Andy Roddick… on February 1, 2004.