Diplomacy is unusually brisk. The military too, of course. Anyone looking for signs of hope that negotiations can prevent an escalation of the Ukraine – policy”>Ukraine war will find them.
On the other hand, those who observe the expansion of Russian military activities see evidence that the attack is drawing closer by the day. The Olympic peace imperative ends Sunday, February 20. The Russian maneuvers in Belarus are scheduled for the same day.
Russian forces are holding further exercises on the southern side of Ukraine and blockading their ports. Military experts warn they could be the cover to position more troops for the invasion.
130,000 Russian soldiers, some trained in urban warfare and equipped with the latest fighter jets and anti-aircraft defenses, have now surrounded Ukraine from three sides: Belarus to the north, Russia to the east, and Crimea to the south.
Biden: US citizens should leave the region, we will not save them
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks of the largest deployment in Europe since the end of the Cold War. Europe must “prepare for the worst”. The advance warning times for an attack have shrunk dramatically.
President Joe Biden urges US citizens to leave Ukraine. In the event of war, he would not send special commands to get them out. If Americans and Russians start shooting at each other, it could trigger a world war.
At the same time, the world is witnessing pilgrimages by top Western politicians to Kiev and Moscow these days like it hasn’t seen in years. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) completes his on Monday and Tuesday.
Scholz demonstratively shows solidarity with Balts and Poland
The order of Washington, Kiev and Moscow was deliberately chosen after statements from the traffic light coalition on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and on the supply of defense weapons to Ukraine raised doubts about the extent of German solidarity with Ukraine and its partners in the EU and NATO. Germany’s solidarity with Poland and the Baltic States is also intended as a demonstrative sign against distrust.
French President Emmanuel Macron has already been to Vladimir Putin. There are conflicting reports about the results. Macron says Putin has pledged that he will not keep Russian troops in Belarus beyond February 20, but will withdraw them. The Kremlin has not confirmed this.
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On the other hand, it is said that Macron has suggested that Russia and NATO should negotiate a neutral status for Ukraine, as Finland had for a long time. In three historical cases – in addition to Finland, Austria and Sweden – official neutrality did not prevent the countries from firmly anchoring themselves economically and politically in the West.
Finlandization? Macron meets with contradiction
Nevertheless, Macron’s proposal has been rejected by many partners. The freedom to choose an alliance applies. Russia has also signed the principle.
The heads of state and government of the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania emphasized the principle during their visit to Scholz on Thursday.
At the same time, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss did so in Moscow in conversation with her Russian colleague Sergey Lavrov. Their exchange brought no rapprochement. Lavrov described it as a conversation “between a mute and a deaf person”. However, he left open which of the two was mute or deaf.
No rapprochement to negotiate at all
The bottom line is that the many meetings have not brought any visible progress, which should be the focus of the negotiations on the security order. The West says the Russian demands – that NATO must not accept any further members without Russian consent, and that the enlargement after 1989 and its practical effects must be reversed – are non-negotiable.
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The US is willing to negotiate security guarantees, but what it means by this proposal are arms limitation talks: a new Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Limitation Treaty; the extension of the launch treaty on long-range nuclear missiles; and the renewal of the treaty on ceilings for conventional troops and their stationing in Europe. Russia did not respond to this.
At the moment, no one can say with certainty what Putin’s goal with the troop deployment is: to invade Ukraine or to exert pressure to negotiate.
Psychological Warfare: Boats used in attack on Georgia
The threatening landscape includes not only land forces but also naval forces. With its maneuvers in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, Russia has blocked Ukraine’s important export ports: Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Mariupol and Berdyansk.
Six landing craft have also arrived at the Sevastopol naval port in Crimea. They are commonly used to land troops, vehicles, and weapons. Some of these boats were used in the 2008 Russian occupation of parts of Georgia, according to The Washington Post. This symbolism is considered part of psychological warfare.
