Nadal stronger than ever? The figures are flattering but beware of hasty conclusions

You’ll forgive the dubious pun, but that foot was the left. The one that Nadal still had in plaster last September. While he was wondering if he was not going to bow out, the Spaniard therefore came back, he won, and even better than that: he chained victories as he had never done before, at least at the start of the season. His previous best start dates from 2014 with 11 successes in a row before colliding with Stan Wawrinka at the antipodes. As a reminder, here are the four best starts of his career:

• In 2009, he lost in the quarterfinals in Doha before winning the Australian Open, the final in Rotterdam and the Indian Wells title: 19 wins, 2 losses
• In 2013, he lost in the final at Vina Del Mar on his return from injury, before winning three titles in Sao Paulo, Acapulco and Indian Wells: 18 wins, 1 loss
• In 2014, he won in Doha, before losing in the Australian Open final and then going for the title in Rio: 16 wins, 1 loss
• In 2022, he has three titles in Melbourne, the Australian Open and Acapulco: 15 wins, no losses

A rebirth on hard courts linked to technical progress

Not only had Nadal never found himself with so many trophies in his bag so early in a season, but you had to go back to 2013 to see him win three consecutive hard court tournaments, a surface that puts a strain on his joints. If there was a decline in recent years in the Spaniard, it was on this side that we had to look for it. In seven seasons from 2015 to 2021, he had triumphed “only” six times (US Open 2017, Beijing 2017, Toronto 2018, Montreal 2019, US Open 2019 and Acapulco 2020) on hard.

To this observation, it should be added that he did not lose the slightest set either during the ATP 250 in Melbourne or during the ATP 500 in Acapulco, which tends to show that Nadal has regained a certain margin. Undeniably, at 35, the performance is remarkable. Because to achieve this, he had to considerably evolve his game and take a new bias, that of reasoned aggressiveness.

In Acapulco in particular, he systematically shortened the point each time he was given the opportunity. And his serve, as he himself has pointed out on several occasions, worked very well: 79% of firsts in the final against Cameron Norrie, 89% even in the first set. Aware that more players like the Briton can now compete with him in long rallies, he has added more tools to his arsenal.

Djokovic’s absence changes everything

In this sense, technically, the 2022 Nadal is a better tennis player, much more complete offensively than at the start of his career. Still, these observations cannot make us forget a very important factor in the current success of the Majorcan: the absence of Novak Djokovic against whom he has not won on hard since 2013 has undeniably made his task easier. Relieved of this threat in Melbourne, he was mentally freed from it, which no doubt also helped him to win his 21st Grand Slam title.

If we wanted to be teasing, we could also point out that the Mallorcan has not beaten his other old rival Roger Federer on hard since… 2014. The 2017 Nadal who lost to the Basel in an epic final of the Australian Open was he less strong than the current Nadal? Hard to be convinced. Gilles Simon, who cannot be suspected of ignorance of tennis, himself affirmed it a few weeks ago. “In the Australian Open final, I saw a Rafa who played 75% or 70% of what he was playing before“, he observed.

Medvedev missed the mark, Tsitsipas is looking for himself, Zverev is disappointing

Before being overwhelmed by the Spanish revolt and perhaps by his emotions in front of a hostile public, Daniil Medvedev had also shown that he had the keys to win in three dry sets. In the long track, the Russian quite logically dominated a Nadal who, despite his exceptional resources, no longer has the running speed combined with the phenomenal endurance of his best years (2008, 2010 and 2013). It is mentally, by his fierce will not to let go, to fight until the end that the “Taurus of Manacor” has reversed the dynamic.

As for his other potential young rivals, they are undeniably not playing at their best at the moment and for different reasons. Although a semi-finalist at the Australian Open, Stefanos Tsitsipas is still looking for benchmarks after his right elbow surgery in December. As for Alexander Zverev, he was unable to surf on his impressive dynamics of 2021. Very nervous, even admitted not having been able to manage the pressure attached to the possible conquest of the place of world number 1. His bloodshed in Acapulco is the latest glaring example.

This splendid start to the season therefore shows above all to those who have forgotten that Nadal still belongs to a special category of champions. The only member of the “Big 3” operational, he confirmed in the most beautiful way what we already knew: if the physique holds up, he remains above the fray. But his exceptional statistics perhaps say as much about his current level as about the disappointing one of the (young) competition.