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What you need to know for today’s NBA list
by Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Return of Durant: All signs point to Kevin Durant returning from a knee injury against the Heat tonight. This likely limits Cam Thomas’ appeal both in the season and in DFS. The impressive rookie has been held below 15 points in five of the last six games while Durant has been healthy. (He averaged 16.5 PPG in February, a month Durant missed entirely).
Hitzecheck: Miami lost a huge lead in Milwaukee last night when Kyle Lowry missed another competition due to personal reasons. In Lowry’s absence, guard Gabe Vincent – who appeared in just 2.5% of leagues – scored 21 points for six dimes. Vincent has now lost at least 20 in consecutive games and logged 65 minutes in his last two games – both starts. With Lowry remaining sidelined, finding a spot for Vincent in your fantasy squad or DFS lineups tonight could be a wise move.
See red: Bogdan Bogdanovic’s figures (31% available) are down compared to last season, but he’s trending in the right direction. Bogdanovic has an average of 11.5 PPG in October, 11.6 in November, 12.3 in December, 15.1 in January and 17.0 in February. He’s an interesting option in prop markets and DFS games as he was a much better shot at home than he was on the road in Atlanta. He posted a season-high with 27 points (and five triples) last Thursday against the Bulls.
Magie in Memphis: Yes Morant is on a different level but De’Anthony Melton is an interesting option in the 89%+ leagues where he is still available. The fourth-year guard recorded a steal in every game last month, averaging 11.5 points and 5.0 rebounds. Boston’s defense is among the best in the league, so Memphis’ supporting cast may need to be bolstered tonight.
Betting on Boston: The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown in this matchup against Memphis with an ankle injury. Since Brown has been off the court this season, Jayson Tatum has seen the team’s biggest jumps in usage rate and fantasy points per minute, which has helped his case score points. Newly acquired Derrick White is also in a good position to help DFS investors. Defensive props for up-and-coming DPOY contender Robert Williams could prove rewarding as he has had multiple shots in back-to-back games and tonight faces a Grizzlies team ranked fourth in shot attempts from within five feet of the basket proven.
Luminous Spur: One of the most underestimated results of the trading deadline was Devin Vassell’s recent jump as a playmaker for Spurs. With white traded to deadline, Vassell (listed at 16.2%) has averaged almost five dimes over his last five games. His shot hasn’t come off lately but maybe that will change tonight against the Kings’ soft full-back.
game of the night
Line: heat (-3)
Currency line: Heat (-140), Webs (+120)
In total: 221 points
BPI forecast sum: 216 points
BPI Profit %: Heat (63.6%)
Trends:
Heat (Spread) 71 % der Tickets, 71 % der Dollars
Over 71% of the tickets, 84% of the dollars
Key players excluded: Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving
Remarkable: Overs are 9-2 in Brooklyn’s last 11 games and, going back to last season, overs are 12-1 in Miami’s last 13 games on the second night of a back-to-back (they were in Milwaukee last night).
Fantasy-Streamer: Gabe Vincent. Surprisingly, Vincent is still available in 96.3% of ESPN leagues. Due to personal reasons, Kyle Lowry will not be available for the near future, so be sure to stream Vincent. When Lowry isn’t in the lineup, he’s a reliable streamer. This season he has averaged 13.2 points, 4.7 assists and 2.8 rebounds in 20 spot starts. – Eric Moody
Best Bet: Heat -2.5 points. The Nets are expecting Kevin Durant back, which should give them a big boost, but this is his first game in months playing with a largely unknown supporting cast against one of the league’s best teams. The Heat have won nine of their last 11 games, with an average goal margin of +9.3ppg. Fresh from yesterday’s heartbreaking loss to the Bucks, they should be motivated to try to send a message to the Nets on KD’s return. – André Snellings
Mine the rest of the slate
Line: Bullen (-1,5)
Currency line: Bulls (-115), Hawks (-105)
In total: 231.5 points
BPI forecast sum: 226 points
BPI Profit %: Falken (60,2%)
Key players excluded: Onyeka Okongwu, John Collins
Questionable: Trae Young (ankle), Lou Williams (hip)
Remarkable: Under tickets have been played in each of Chicago’s last three games and five of the last six. The Bulls have dropped consecutive games ATS after going 7-2 against the number in their previous nine games.
Best Bet: Zach LaVine over 31.5 total points + assists + rebounds. In all of the Bulls’ post-break games, LaVine has scored 20 or more points while shooting 46.2% from the field. In his last five games against the Hawks, he averaged 29.4 points, 4.6 assists and 4.2 rebounds. Atlanta ranks 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — moody
Line: Celtics (-2)
Currency line: Grizzlys (+110), Celtics (-130)
In total: 224 points
BPI forecast sum: 216.5 points
BPI Profit %: Celts (59.8%)
Key players excluded: Jaylen Braun
Remarkable: The Grizzlies are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games, but betting the total has been a rollercoaster ride: three straight unders on the heels of eight straight overs.
Best Bets: Grizzlies +2.0. The Celtics (12-2 in last 14 games, +14.7 points advantage) and Grizzlies (11-3 in last 14, +10.5 points advantage) are two of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. But without Jaylen Brown, the balance of power shifts even down the road to the Grizzlies. – Snellinge
Line: Raptoren (-8,5)
Currency line: Raptors (-420), Pistons (+320)
In total: 216.5 points
BPI forecast sum: 211.5 points
BPI Profit %: Birds of prey (72.8%)
Key players excluded: OG Anunoby
Questionable: Fred VanVleet (Knee)
Doubtful: Marvin Bagley III (Knöchel)
Remarkable: Don’t look now, but the Pistons are 4-0-1 in their last five ATS with zero of those games going below the total.
Fantasy-Streamer: Isaiah Stewart. With Marvin Bagley III dodgy, Stewart, available in 37% of ESPN leagues, is on the streaming radar. In his last eight games, he has averaged 10.5 points and 8.4 rebounds. It’s a good idea to bet on total points + rebounds and a double-double. The Raptors are one of the worst offensive rebound teams in the league. — moody
Line: Krieger (-2,5)
Currency line: Warrior (+105), Misfit (-125)
In total: 219 points
BPI forecast sum: 223.5 points
BPI Profit %: Outsiders (61.6%)
Key players excluded: André Iguodala, Draymond Green
Remarkable: The Mavs have played five straight games and nine of their last 10 (taking tickets through seven of those 10 games).
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 23.5 total points + assists + rebounds. In the last six games, only Luka Doncic (33) has averaged more points than Brunson (17). During that time, Brunson averaged 3.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game along with a 20.2% utilization rate. In the last six games, the Warriors have dropped 116 points per 100 possessions. — moody
Fantasy-Streamer: Dorian Finney-Smith (available in 83.2% of leagues) has quietly become a major contributor since trading Kristaps Porzingis. In his last five games, he averaged 13.0 PPG (61.5 FG%, 53.8 3P%), 6.0 RPG, 2.8 3PG, 1.2 APG, 0.8 SPG, and 0.6 BPG in 35.2mpg. He’s toyed with a points/rebound double-double in his last two games, with 14 and 9 against the Warriors and 16 and 9 against the Lakers. — Snellings
Line: Traces (-6.5)
Currency line: Spurs (-270), Kings (+220)
In total: 238 points
BPI forecast sum: 224 points
BPI Profit %: Traces (71.4%)
Key players excluded: Romeo Langford
Remarkable: Spurs are playing their first game of the month tonight and are looking to get out of a home radio: 2-5 ATS in their last seven.
Best bet: Dejounte Murray over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Murray has an excellent opportunity to hit back against the Kings after the Spurs were blown out by the Grizzlies on Monday night. You’ll want to build your DFS rosters around Murray, as he has the highest cap of any player on the board tonight against a Sacramento team that ranks 29th in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions. — moody
Line: Screen shafts (-2.5)
Currency line: Clippers (-145), Lakers (+125)
In total: 218.5 points
BPI forecast sum: 210.5 points
BPI Profit %: Hair clippers (64.2%)
Key players excluded: none
Questionable: LeBron James (knee)
Remarkable: The Lakers have failed to cover three straight games and have seen four straight games go under the total.
Analytics-Edge
BPI highest forecast totals
1. San Antonio Spurs (115 Punkte)
2. Atlanta Hawks (114,3 Punkte)
3. Dallas Mavericks (113,4 Punkte)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Detroit Pistons (102,4 Punkte)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (103,3 Punkte)
3. Brooklyn Nets (106,1 Punkte)
Highest BPI Win Probability (Straight Up)
1. Toronto-Raubvögel (72,8 %)
2. San Antonio Spurs (71.4%)
3. LA Clipper (64,2 %)
