[분석] 0.73%p The factor of the ultra-thin match… Lee Dae-nyeo, Honam, and the number of confirmed cases surged

There are various analyzes related to President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol’s new victory by 240,000 votes. Just before entering the ‘blackout’ period, President-elect Yoon overtook Lee by a gap of 5-8 percentage points, and People’s Power Representative Lee Jun-seok said, “Candidate Yoon will beat Lee by a gap of 10 percentage points a day before the election. ‘, but the actual difference in votes was only 0.73 percentage points.

First of all, the last-minute gathering of women in their 20s, who were passive in opinion polls, is considered to be the main cause of the ultra-smooth match. The high turnout in the Honam region also seems to have driven the 0.73%p difference. In addition, it is analyzed that the increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients in a short period of time had an impact on the game.

2030 Women’s Gathering Drives Lee Jae-myung’s Voting Rate

According to an exit survey conducted by three terrestrial broadcasters KBS, MBC, and SBS, the approval rate of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, was 58% and that of the elected Yoon was 33.8%. On the other hand, the approval rate of Yoon-elect Yoon in his 20s was 58.7%, and in the case of Candidate Lee, 36.3%. Analysts suggest that women in their 20s, who had not shown support for a particular candidate in various opinion polls, gathered at the last minute.

Jin Joong-kwon, a former professor at Dongyang University, said, “A lot of women in their twenties escaped (from Yoon Seok-yeol). For women in their 20s), it must have come as a realistic horror.”

Professor Jin said, “The continued mention of the abolition of the leisure department is a disappointing part because it seems that candidate Yoon was campaigning for his own defeat.”

Lawyer Jeon Jeon-chaek also said, “It is the power of the people that campaigned on the issue of the gender issue of Lee Dae-nam and Lee Dae-nyeo. I think this election campaign has failed.”

Similar opinions emerged from within the People’s Power. In an interview with MBC Radio, Kim Jae-won, a member of the People’s Power Supreme Council, said, “When approaching the gender issue, it should be softer for young women in their 20s, especially women in their early 30s, when asked if there was a failure in their approach to gender issues. He said, “I think that the effort to approach is not enough.

Regarding the re-examination of the promise to abolish the Ministry of Leisure, Supreme Commissioner Kim replied, “There will be many discussions in the future.”

However, it is difficult to dismiss it as a ‘lack of strategy’ in that, in the 2020 general election, Yoon-elect received 8.7 percentage points of votes higher than the percentage of votes received by women in their 20s (25.1%) of the Future United Party, the predecessor of the people’s power, in the 2020 general election. There is also an evaluation.

Honam, which had a higher concentration than TK

Honam, Daegu, and Gyeongbuk (TK), where the Democratic Party and the People’s Power support group are concentrated, both exceeded the national average turnout, but Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk, which had more than 80% turnout, is also considered to be the cause of the close match.

These regions ranked 1st to 3rd in the districts with the highest voter turnout. The highest region was Gwangju with 81.5%, followed by Jeonnam (81.1%) and Jeonbuk (80.6%). Daegu was 78.7%, and Gyeongbuk was 78.1%, slightly exceeding the national average turnout (77.1%).

People’s Power Representative Lee Jun-seok boasted about the votes in Honam right before the election, saying, “Of course, it will exceed 20%, and I think he can get up to 30%.” It stopped.

An official from the Korean Power of Power said, “The problem was the attitude of arrogance at the last minute because of the large gap in approval ratings.

The Democratic Party systematically sent phone calls and text messages to encourage voting until just before the end of the election, but some say that the power of the people did not reach this level.

“The number of votes from the confirmed cases is 610,000… It would have been advantageous for Lee Jae-myung because of the high turnout in their 40s and 50s”

Judging from the average daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases (245,564 people) for a week as of the 9th, the number of confirmed voters is about 1.71 million.

According to the provisional count of the National Election Commission on the 9th, a total of 34,071,400 voters participated in the voting as of 7:30 pm, the official closing time of the voting on that day. As of 6 pm, the number is 618,541 more than 33,452,859. This means that about 610,000 confirmed and quarantined people participated in the main voting.

In this regard, a physician said, “Even with the same confirmed case, young people in their 50s or younger who are asymptomatic or with mild symptoms would have been more active in voting, but it would not have been easy for the elderly people in their 60s or older who are often sick to go to the polls.” said

An opposition official said, “Whatever the reason, the government mass-produced the number of confirmed cases by easing social distancing and quarantine right before the presidential election was not in any way to help the Democratic Party in the presidential election. seems to have voted for this candidate,” he said.