Those who listen to my work on podcasts know that I’m one of the few writers in the fantasy baseball industry who creates and maintains my own projections throughout the draft season. Most managers use rankings available on sites like this one, which is a good idea. But I’m taking it a step further and beginning a process in early December where I’m forecasting stats for the upcoming season for nearly 600 players and adjusting those forecasts daily through opening day based on injuries, transactions and more. .
Projecting player stats is only part of the battle. Sure, I have stats associated with players, but the final step in the process is figuring out how to convert those stats into fantasy stats. To arrive at these conclusions I have been using SGP formulas for about 15 years.
Those interested in learning more about using SGPs can pick up a copy of The Process by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell.
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Using SGPs is an eye-opening experience, with players sometimes ending up with definitive stats that even surprise me. In this article, I’ll walk you through some surprising player groups for the 2022 campaign.
Power Speed Blends
Players who assist in all (or almost all) Roto categories tend to be ranked higher than expected. For example, a player who is 15-20 in home runs and steals provides a lot of fantastic production without attracting much attention to their skill in any area.
Here are some power-speed mixes that came out surprisingly high in my 2022 predictions.
Teoscar Hernández (OF, TOR)
Hernandez is an obviously fantastic stud due to his ability to beat the 30 homer plateau from the cleanup point of Toronto’s highs lineup, but his ability to also produce 10-15 interceptions is the icing on the cake that de Hernandez does to a top 20 power racket.
JT Realmuto (C, PHI)
Realmuto is useful across the board, and his 10+ steals from receiver position make him a game changer.
Robbie Grossman (OF, DET)
Grossman is one of my favorites because he was one of the few players in baseball last year at 20-20 and could repeat that feat this season. Grossman is the perfect example of someone making a difference, despite not being exceptional in any area.
Andrew Benintendi (OF, KC)
Benintendi may never reach the heights he was once predicted, but he’s able to hit 20 home runs and 10 interceptions, making him more valuable than many writers believe.
Harrison Bader (OF, STL)
Bader is a bad version of Grossman, who can hit 15-20 home runs and nab 10-15 sacks. Often chosen at the bottom of the round, Bader will be valuable this year.
Andrés Gimenez (2B/SS, CLE)
Gimenez is someone I would have liked to see further down my list, but I can’t find a way to bring him down. Though Gimenez still isn’t a great offensive player in real life, he could produce a dozen homers and 25 interceptions this year.
deceptions
The following players are good majors but leave my projection system asking for more. They have holes in their games compared to the five standard rotation categories and are not exceptional in any area. For these reasons, they end up lower in my projections than one would expect.
Eloy Jiménez (OF, CWS)
Jimenez has poor speed skills, which is an issue. He doesn’t steal bases and runs at a mediocre pace, meaning he needs to hit .290 or better to be a notable fantasy asset.
Carlos Correa (SS, MIN)
Correa doesn’t steal bases, has a modest 26 career homers, and has only hit over .280 once in his seven-year career. There just isn’t enough category juice here.
Alex Bregman (3B, HOU)
Bregman has had potency issues since baseball changed after the 2019 season. He also rarely steals and has reached 0.261 since the beginning of 2020. Bregman could bounce back this year, but the forecasts don’t like him.
Yoan Moncada (3B, CWS)
Moncada has a 17-homer season, a .263 season and has 28 interceptions in 539 career games. Having made Moncada’s projections, I don’t see why managers are picking them up in the middle rounds.
The WHIP factor
On the pitching side, pitching value is more affected by WHIP category than most managers realize. Here are some pitchers that have extreme production in this area.
John Means (SP, BAL)
Means is the poster boy for this segment as his career 1.08 WHIP in 348.2 innings is a remarkable number for someone to pick in the second half of a draft. The change in fences at Camden Yards makes Means even more attractive.
Logan Gilbert (SP, SEA)
Gilbert belongs to the next generation of beginners who give up many flyballs but still succeed thanks to their excellent shot skills and control. I could see Gilbert taking a leap forward this year.
Giovanny Gallegos (RP, STL)
Gallegos is expected to be a top-20 pitcher in the WHIP category with positive influence (0.92 career mark) this season, no matter how deployed in the Cardinals’ fickle bullpen.
Tschadgrün (RP, NYY)
Green is a bad version of Gallegos as he is less likely to get saves. But Green (1.01 WHIP career) is expected to be one of the top 30 pitchers by WHIP influence this year.
Luis Castillo (SP, CIN)
Castillo has long been overrated by fantasy executives who misjudge the WHIP category. The right-hander has a mediocre career 1.22 and was a big problem in that area (1.36) last season.
Ian Anderson (SP, ATL)
Anderson looks better in the ERA category (career grade 3.25) than in WHIP (career grade 1.20). The right-hander looks even more like a midfielder considering he’s been lucky in his 30 career starts (.262 BABIP).
