The fasting month of Ramadan is usually celebrated with evening feasts in the Middle East. Only after sunset are devout Muslims allowed to eat and drink again. But this time millions of people are facing a poor Ramadan. As the Islamic holy month begins this weekend, the Ukraine war and an unusually dry winter in the Middle East are driving up bread and cooking oil prices.
For those people in the Middle East and North Africa who can hardly feed their families anyway, it will be even more difficult in Ramadan because of the price increases, warns the World Food Program of the United Nations. For governments from Tunis to Beirut, the development is a warning sign. In the past, shortages of basic foodstuffs have led to political upheavals and wars, for example in Syria.
According to a study by American scientists, a severe drought between 2006 and 2009 drove around 1.5 million people from rural regions to the cities; mass migration became a driving force behind the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad a few years later. Also this year it is very dry in many areas of the Middle East.
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As the research center of the EU Commission reports, much less rain fell in Morocco, Algeria and parts of Tunisia and Libya than in normal winters. The US consulting firm Gro Intelligence, which specializes in agriculture, also estimates that Tunisia has only received half the usual amount of rain. If the drought persists, the region’s need for imported grain will increase.
The supply of sunflower oil is also suffering
But additional imports to compensate for crop failures are much more expensive than usual because of the Ukraine war. Ukraine and Russia are the most important wheat suppliers for the Middle East. In Lebanon and Egypt, more than 80 percent of all wheat imports come from the two countries, in Libya it is 75 percent and in Tunisia 50 percent.
Since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, world market prices have at times risen by more than half. The supply of sunflower oil, used in cooking by millions of people in the Middle East, is also affected, as Ukraine is the world’s leading exporter.
Wheat, sugar and cooking oil are already being rationed in civil war-torn Syria. The aid organization Oxfam reports that in the area around the capital Damascus, people have to queue for hours for subsidized bread. Children rummaged through garbage to find something to eat. According to Oxfam, six out of ten Syrians do not know where their next meal will come from.
In Lebanon, bread prices rose by 70 percent
Moutaz Adham, the organization’s Syria director, expects life for ordinary people to become even more deprived because of the aftermath of the Ukraine war. Food rationing “might just be the beginning”. The Washington Post quoted a Syrian woman as saying her husband was able to smuggle a container of sunflower oil into the country from Lebanon. “I’ll save that for Ramadan.”
In Lebanon, bread prices have shot up by 70 percent since the start of the Ukraine war. Because the explosion disaster in the port of Beirut in the summer of 2020 also destroyed grain silos, the country has little opportunity to store grain. The Ministry of Economic Affairs announced at the beginning of March that the supplies were only sufficient for one and a half months.
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In Egypt, the state needs more and more money to keep bread affordable. Around 70 million of the 100 million Egyptians eat state-subsidized bread, which the government wants to remain cheap: Exploding bread prices for the poorest could trigger riots. Bread has become so expensive on the free market, which supplies 30 million Egyptians with their food, that Cairo imposed a price freeze. The export of pasta and lentils from Egypt is banned for the time being.
