Olaf Scholz is too hesitant, calls Vladimir Putin too much, and does everything wrong. This often-voiced opinion of the chancellor contrasts with figures from a Forsa survey. 83 percent of those surveyed think it’s right to talk to Putin, even if he’s a war criminal. 68 percent believe that the war can only be ended through negotiations. And 58 percent think that the chancellor is acting correctly and in a balanced manner when it comes to arms deliveries.
Scholz is traveling to Kyiv this Thursday during a phase in which the war is developing to the detriment of Ukraine. Together with Emmanuel Macron and Mario Draghi, the Italian newspaper “La Republica” published a picture of the three in the saloon car on the way to the Ukrainian capital.
For all the grumbling, this is still a right, important time. Scholz said he wasn’t going for a photo shoot, but only when there were specific things to discuss. So the expectations are all the greater.
A clear message about whether you want Ukraine in the EU
Scholz’ visit, scheduled for six hours, has to do three things. It may only be a symbolic encouragement, but firstly: The support of the leading EU states for Ukraine’s application for EU membership is an act that should not be underestimated and shows the Kremlin: Our united front is not crumbling, we will not let Volodymyr Zelenskyj in the lurch . And we will never let Vladimir Putin’s fear and nuclear rhetoric get us down.
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Germany has already provided over four billion in aid
And secondly, since the term “Scholz” was coined in Ukraine as a synonym for “announce, manoeuvre, but deliver little”, Scholz, as recently in the Bundestag, must make it unmistakably clear what Germany is already doing – even beyond arms aid. Since 2014, Germany has provided 1.8 billion euros in support.
Since the beginning of the war, 185 million euros have been added for Ukrainian civil protection, internally displaced persons and host communities. In addition, another 440 million euros were made available for humanitarian aid and 650 million euros in untied loans to continue paying social benefits and pensions. Another billion was also pledged to allow Ukraine to continue its state affairs.
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The West’s weapons aid takes time – because of the training
The most complicated is and remains the delivery of heavy weapons. It is also the Chancellor’s declared goal to put Ukraine in the best possible negotiating position with Western arms deliveries. Initially, the West provided much, which at first helped repel the Russian attacks. Now Ukraine lacks ammunition and artillery. Most Western systems cannot be operated without weeks of training. But the scale and speed of Western supplies will determine how far Ukraine will lose ground. It is also not possible that Scholz will announce the delivery of multiple rocket launchers and then software problems will at least greatly delay it.
And it is up to Scholz to come to an agreement with the NATO partners as to whether a massive expansion is needed again. The military expert Carlo Masala thinks that Ukraine basically needs a “whatever it takes” moment if Scholz’s promise also applies that Ukraine at least must not lose and Putin must not win.
But the many delays and the complexity of responsibilities also show that better, faster coordination is needed. The chancellor should follow the example of concerted action to combat inflation and establish a coordinator in the chancellery who can coordinate things better with the armaments industry, NATO, the German armed forces and Ukraine.
The tank question must be answered
Germany is in a key role simply because of the amount of immediately available tanks – almost 200 Marder and Leopard. So far he has not been able to explain why Panzerhaubitz 2000 and Gepard anti-aircraft tanks should be delivered to Ukraine, but not infantry fighting vehicles, for example.
If Scholz does not want to deliver German tanks to Ukraine, then he should say so and not tactically. Kyiv deserves this clarity.
Then Ukraine will have to look elsewhere, but Zelenskyy won’t help. The word time is in the term turning point. And that’s running away from Ukraine.
