And it cannot be revived.
“The goal is to win.”
Win now. This was the idea of the management of the Chicago Bulls. Idea that seems to be no longer easy to achieve.
The team fails to impact matches with the right mentality, does not finish well in clutch time (3-12 their record in razor’s edge matches this year) and does not stem the opponents’ attacks (19th for Defensive Rating) , conceding too much both on the perimeter and on the rim.
There are several problems that are cornering the franchise of the windy city, starting right from the defensive department. And the reason, above all, is one.
Lonzo Ball’s Nightmare
The long ordeal he is undergoing Lonzo Ball with a right knee injury that keeps him away from basketball played since last January, he has created a void in the starting point guard slot, a void that seems to affect the defensive department, first of all, in a decisive way.
Zo’s perimeter defensive ability is star-level and paired with excellent Alex Carusogave clear support to the rest of the team.
The pair recorded 3.5 steals on shoe ties last season, making them a fearsome duo for any offense in the league. Not to mention, Ball was featured in 3 of the Bulls’ Top 5 lineups of 2021/22:
- L.Ball – A.Caruso – Z.LaVine – D.DeRozan – T.Bradley: 137 possessi, +31.5 net rating (99° %ile), 96° %ile defensive rating
- L.Ball – A.Caruso – Z.LaVine – D.DeRozan – N.Vucevic: 189 possessi, +20.6 net rating (80° %ile), 92° %ile defensive rating
- L.Ball – Z.LaVine – D.DeRozan – P.Williams – N.Vucevic: 135 possessi, +11 net rating (73° %ile), 99° %ile defensive rating
But, beyond the mere statistics, what seems to have failed is that ability as a defensive leader that the UCLA product brought with it. His effort in his own half and his intelligent choices involved his teammates, freed from a defensive shyness that today seems to have reappeared on almost the whole team.
The defense (and Nikola Vucevic)
The boys of Coach Billy Donovan they are 29th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed (37.9%), taking nearly 37 shots from beyond the arc per game, one of the highest rates in the NBA – 38.6% of opponents’ shots, trailing only the Rockets, Heat and Magic. Data that are not sustainable for a team created with a “win now” perspective and aiming for a position in the playoffs.
As far as internal defense is concerned, the situation is no better: in the past season, the perimeter work also supported the problems of defending the paint, with an approach that allowed many shots on the rim, poorly defended, and always high opponent percentages from outside, but on low frequency.
| Opp. Rim freq% | 36.5% | 30° |
| Opp. Rim FG% | 64.4% | 7° |
| Opp. 3PT freq% | 33.6% | 2° |
| Up. 3PT% | 37.2% | 27° |
30th frequency = the highest; 2nd frequency = second lowest
This season, however, things are also bad for iron. Reference data is the 15th position both in frequency and precision adversary to iron, not the best to assist in the tragic perimeter defense mentioned above. Furthermore, he doesn’t even help the team’s sixteenth position in blocks per game, with the long starter, Nikola Vucevic (arrived in an exchange with Orlando in the 2020-2021 season) who travels at 0.9 blocks per game, blocking only 1.4% of total opponent shots, proving he is not a cumbersome presence to protect the rim.
Vooch seemed particularly subdued and not very energetic in almost all fields, defensive and offensive, while continuing to carry out his job as a connector for the Chicago Bulls offense, assisting 13.6% of teammates’ baskets (81st percentile among peers ), number of good level in relation to usage and with few collateral turnovers, only 12.2% of his possessions (73rd percentile).
1.11 PPPs, with only 9.7% turnover%
This, however, is not enough. The trade with which he arrived was not named by chance and, in hindsight, the needle of the balance leans towards Orlando in the exchange for Wendell Carter Jr., who is becoming the author of an excellent season with the Magic ( despite the physical problems), and with a greater growth potential, given the age difference with the Montenegrin.
And the writer is deliberately glossing over the draft pick granted to the Florida team, which was awarded the talents of Franz Wagner, future All-star, who in his second season is traveling at over 19 points per game.
anachronistic attack
Ball’s absence and the general problems in defense are also affecting the offensive phase. Chicago is cumbersome, inattentive and the overall vision seems compromised.
Starting from the lack of Zo who, while not bringing all-star statistics, is an important void: his selfless style of play, high basketball IQ, and his “new” excellent shot from distance are missing from coach Donovan and his companions.
The pace, although statistically almost unchanged (98.3 last season, 99.9 this season), is slower to the eye and the perception would almost suggest that the isolations have increased due to the static and not very involving attack, although the data are even decreased.
The presence of the eldest of the Ball brothers, on the other hand, gave the team a much more fluid movement against the deployed defense and his dangerousness in three-point shooting (fifth for percentages from 3 last season, with .423) gave breathing space and balance to the windy-city offensive.
However, the point that is most affected by the absence of the Californian point guard is the circulation of the ball: the Bulls are twenty-second for the percentage of assisted shots per game (only 57.5%), a statistic that is numerically no different from last year but which, once again time, it is in discord with perception, which shows us a much more individualistic attitude in the field.
And it is this individualism that conditions the Bulls’ offensive fluidity, which is reflected in the statistics and rankings. Chicago is ranked last in three-pointers attempted per game, with 28.8 and above the latter frequency, with only 29.8% of shots coming from outside.
This datum, a little anachronistic for today’s basketball, almost by itself affects the style of play of the whole team. The three-point shot is now fundamental in the evolution of basketball, above all as a balance tool between the various offensive departments, and being dangerous from beyond the 7.25 arc forces the opposing defenses to pay greater attention to the perimeter and to a difficulty in assisting on penetrations and near-iron play.
A natural consequence is a difficulty for the Illinois team to conclude with efficiency on the rim, ranking twentieth for percentage of points in the paint, also reaching the rim with a good frequency (11th) but, for the reasons listed above, closing with low efficiency (18th).
So, if Chicago doesn’t shoot from three and doesn’t work well at rim, only the mid-range game remains.
The most nostalgic fans can only be happy with this information, but we must immerse ourselves in the evolutionary reality of today’s game and understand how inadequate a strategy focused on the jumper and mid-range isolations is in fact in the year 2023. In the economy of game, extremely faster, rhythmic at frenzied levels and with the need to grind points from distance, it is clear how unsustainable and out of balance it is for a team, which aspires to have its say in the title race, to maintain a game which, although it has historically made many of us fall in love with, it is not in step with the DNA of the American championship, so devoted to the show and the offensive frenzy.
Because as I wrote here, LaVine has questioned his role internally at times. That Dec. 20 report from The Athletic stated LaVine and the organization “are not seeing eye to eye.” This is all part of it. A storyline to monitor, for sure: https://t.co/3sSqfmJKGI
— K.C. Johnson (@KCJHoop) January 3, 2023
The locker room
Net of the technical issues that led the franchise to tenth position in the Eastern Conference, there seem to be bad moods and splits in the locker room (which we talked about WHO).
Some insiders speak of strong arguments between the star Zach LaVinefresh off a five-year, $215 million extension, and the actual go-to-guy and veteran Demar Derozan. Not surprising, in a precarious situation on the field, some frictions, with the elected franchise player (LaVine) who also seems to have issues with the coaching staff and management, guilty of not having composed a team up to par (a deepening WHO).
The solutions for the Chicago Bulls, in such a bleak scenario, seem to be limited: on the one hand there are those who are pushing for a complete rebuild, hoping to appropriate a good pick in the next draft; on the other, those who ask for the wait for Ball’s return, and an attempt to reconfirm trust in this roster, in the hope of a surge of pride on the part of the players. What is clear is that the situation for the management of the windy city requires timely measures and that there is no single or risk-free solution.
Ayo Dosunmu, la luce in fondo al tunnel
Quick honorable mention for Ayo Dosunmu. The local kid has shown flashes of solidity and efficiency, with constant growth that has resulted in some excellent performances, including 19 points and 5 steals in the losing effort against Cleveland on December 31st. The boy shows potential and desire to work, and his performance on the pitch, net of numerical data, seems to justify the 27 minutes of average per game that coach Donovan allows him.
