It’s not official yet, but in a few days the San Antonio Spurs will draw Victor Wembanyama with the first pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. How does the Frenchman fit into the legendary Gregg Popovich’s team?
It’s been a tough few years for the Texans, so spoiled by success. After 22 playoff appearances in a row, the Spurs missed them four times in a row. Just 22 games were won in 2022-23, the fewest since 1997, when Spurs went on to win the draft lottery and draft a certain Tim Duncan who would go on to lay the foundation for Spurs’ five championships.
Now the Spurs have the first pick again, for the third time in their history and for the third time a big man is waiting (in 1988 it was David Robinson) who can and possibly will change the fate of the franchise in the long term. Victor Wembanyama is a player the likes of which the basketball world has never seen. Even the otherwise conservative Adrian Wojnarowski (ESPN) described the Frenchman as “possibly the best prospect” in the history of US sports before the draft lottery.
And the evening could not have gone better for Wembanyama. Secretly, the Spurs were his dream destination, also because San Antonio is very popular, especially in France. Tony Parker played here for many years, and Boris Diaw was also an important part of the legendary team that played dizzily the Miami Heat and their Big Three around LeBron James in 2014 and is considered a role model for basketball in its purest form.
“Today was a good day”, Wembanyama tweeted after the lottery. So the 19-year-old doesn’t seem to mind that he will join one of the worst teams in the NBA, although theoretically more “ready” teams like Portland or Dallas were also in the draw. So how does Wemby fit into San Antonio and how good will Spurs be next season?
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Spurs: This is what the squad looks like
If any team needed a young star, it’s San Antonio. Since Kawhi Leonard’s trade in 2018, Spurs have often had a solid roster but no real stars. Dejounte Murray did become an All-Star in 2022, but after the season Spurs traded the guard away for a hefty pick package. DeMar DeRozan played under the radar for a few years, but was also too old to truly represent Spurs’ future.
What the Spurs also lacked was a high pick. After the 1997 Duncan draft, it wasn’t until 2022 that San Antonio was allowed to make the top ten again. The Texans landed some direct hits like Parker, Manu Ginobili or Leonard in between, but other teams have caught up in terms of scouting. San Antonio continues to pick well, like Keldon Johnson or Murray recently, but the franchise players were not.
Still, Spurs have a nice framework to build on. Devin Vassell, the 11th pick of 2020, has star potential but struggled with an intractable knee injury in preseason. The guard scored 18.5 points with a true shooting of 55 percent, which gives hope. The 22-year-old has always flew under the radar in his draft class but has the makings of a star wing.
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He is already hitting well from outside, and he also has skills for the role of secondary ball handler and can defend. So Vassell should be seeded like Jeremy Sochan. The Pole is another versatile defender who, like Vassell, has a high basketball IQ. His throw needs work, but with Wembanyama at his side it should be a tandem that works. Before the 2022 draft, many tried to draw a comparison to Draymond Green, but a guy like the Nuggets’ Aaron Gordon is more realistic. Not an all-star, but very valuable for your own team.
Another mainstay is Keldon Johnson, whose four-year, $74 million contract begins July 1. Last year he was the best scorer, but mainly due to a lack of alternatives. The 24-year-old is a power forward trapped in the body of a guard whose throw wobbles and who does a lot with his power. There’s some overlap with Sochan, but that’s not a problem for now.
Still, Johnson should be a long-term candidate for a trade, partly because his deal is so team-friendly and his salary is falling year after year. Ultimately, this trio will benefit from Wembanyama because they all slide down the pecking order and don’t have to take on more roles they’re clearly not ready for.
The Vassell-Johnson-Sochan-Wembanyama axis is a good start at least for once and fits together quite well on paper.
San Antonio Spurs: All contracts at a glance
Spieler (Alter)Position23/2424/2525/2626/2727/28Keldon Johnson (23)Forward20,019,017,517,5UFADoug McDermott (31)Forward13,8UFA—Devonte’ Graham (28)Guard12,112,7UFA–Zach Collins (25)Center7,7***UFA—Khem Birch (30)Center7,0UFA—Devin Vassell (22)Guard5,9RFA—Jeremy Sochan (20)Forward5,35,6**7,1**RFA-Malaki Branham (20)Guard3,13,2**5,0**RFA-Blake Wesley (20)Guard2,52,6**4,7**RFA-Charles Bassey (22)Center2,52,6***2,6***UFA-
* Player option, ** Team option, *** Not guaranteed or only partially guaranteed, UFA = Unrestricted Free Agent, RFA = Restricted Free Agent
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Spurs: What needs to be improved?
The Spurs have a center in less than a week, even if it is suspected that Wemby will initially play on the four and will play next to a real big. Now the focus is on the backcourt, especially on the point guard position. Tre Jones did well as a starter, but has limitations and, like his older brother Tyus of the Grizzlies, should be seen more as a backup due to his lack of length and ability to create for himself.
The 23-year-old is also a restricted free agent but will likely stay with Spurs. A deal worth eight figures a year shouldn’t be ruled out either, even if Jones might slip into the second tier. San Antonio is known for rewarding its own players for their work, and Jones made quite a splash in his sophomore season at the Alamo River.
Spurs have two other young guards in Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley, with the former having some good moments as a scorer in his rookie season. No. 25 pick Wesley, on the other hand, spent the entire season in the G-League, with 42 percent from the field and more turnover than assists (2.7 to 2.6) not really promising.
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What can the Spurs do in the summer?
After the Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz, no team has more capspace this summer than the Spurs, who could theoretically hand over a maximum contract if they wanted to. Austin Reaves has been mentioned several times as a possible Spurs candidate, and there have even been rumors about Chris Paul.
The Spurs have a lot of options. You can lure younger free agents with money or absorb bad contracts with Capspace to take one or the other asset with you. With CP3, for example, you could kill two birds with one stone, even if this seems unrealistic. So there could be an asset plus a mentor for Wembanyama.
This should also be the focus of the Spurs. Only three players on the team are 28 or older (Doug McDermott, Khem Birch, Devonte’ Graham), another veteran should do the team good. Ideally, this is a playmaker who makes it easier for Wembanyama to get started and serves the ball in his conform zone.
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What resources are available in the long term?
Lots. The trades of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Pöltl filled the box properly. Between 2024 and 2028, the Spurs hold a whopping ten first-round picks including two pick swaps. So what else is coming in?
Hawks 2025 and 2027 picks (both unprotected)Swap rights with Hawks 2026Raptors pick 2024 (Top 6 protected)Hornets pick 2024 (Top 14 protected)Bulls pick 2025 (Top 10 protected)Swap rights with Celtics 2028 (Top 1 Protected)
In addition, the Spurs still have all of their own picks plus another eight second rounders. Add Wembanyama to the equation and you can see how well Spurs are positioned for the years to come.
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How good are the Spurs next season?
Of course, this question cannot be answered at this point in time, too much can change in the offseason for that. If the Spurs go organic, meaning no big names in free agency, the Texans will certainly win a few more games, but the playoffs could be tough.
The past has shown that rookies are usually not very promising as a first option. The last big exceptions were Ja Morant (Grizzlies) and Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), both guards. Big men often take longer to get a foothold, even though Wembanyama already has a lot of professional experience and the transition should be easier.
At the same time, the Spurs will pack the Frenchman in cotton wool. You don’t burn a giant like him, the risk of serious injuries will always be there, as the history of players who clearly crack the famous 7 feet mark, i.e. around 2.13 meters, shows.
San Antonio should be a nice League Pass team that will annoy big teams at times, but don’t expect much more. But if Wembanyama performs like an all-star in year one, then there is at least a small chance of the postseason.
2023-06-26 00:25:21
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