You could argue that Shohei Ohtani is coming off the three best seasons in major league history.
That might be true if he had simply punched and thrown simultaneously at an average level, considering how hard it is to be even good at either.
But from 2021-2023, Ohtani has a 2.84 ERA and struck out an MLB-best (400 innings minimum) 31.4% of those he faced while hitting the second-most homers (129 -124 behind Aaron Judge). Only Corbin Burnes (.576) held hitters to lower OPS than Ohtani (.602).
Through Sunday, only Judge (1.019) has an OPS higher than Ohtani’s .967 (minimum 1,000 plate appearances).
Oh, by the way, Ohtani is tied for the most triples over this span and is 16th in steals.
So throw like Burnes, hit like Judge, run like the wind. A human.
Shohei Ohtani produces arguably the greatest three-year streak in MLB history. JASON SZENES FOR THE NEW YORK POST
Which brings us to this counterintuitive: no baseball operations department should recommend signing a record deal with the greatest player unless the owner:
He said there was no other choice. Promised separate paychecks – one as if Ohtani wasn’t on the list, then the one for Ohtani.
Number 1 is pretty self-explanatory.
Ohtani could be worth so much in terms of marketing, status, etc. that the property is ready to enter into a more record contract. The Angels have never publicly stated how much extra Ohtani is worth each year. The value would fluctuate from franchise to franchise. But each organization must also calculate how much it might be worth if Ohtani only hits for a long time while healing from a torn elbow ligament and what it might be worth if his performance inevitably declines with age (Ohtani will be 30 next July).
Shohei Ohtani prepares to throw a pitch.PA
The second element – two separate payrolls – would be necessary even if Ohtani was capable of being a two-way player next season. Because, as valuable as it may be, you’re building a roster and payroll around a once-a-week newbie who’s also a DH.
Let’s say for this argument that a team has a payroll of $200 million and Ohtani costs $50 million a year. It can’t be $150 million plus Ohtani. It has to be $200 million plus Ohtani’s $50 million.
Because having Ohtani in your rotation means needing an entire rotation next to him. He never pitches with four days off. It is therefore necessary to have five other holders, which is difficult to manage for each team.
If one or more veteran starters ask to throw four days off, it involves a lot of manipulation to get around Ohtani. Plus, having six total starters means running with one less reliever than the norm.
Plus, at the best of times, Ohtani is an everyday DH. Thus, the payroll must allow players in eight positions while handcuffing a manager from not being able to rotate regulars through the DH slot for a pseudo day off. Anyone who simply adds the wins on top of Ohtani’s replacement as pitcher and hitter, without adjusting what’s necessary to allow him to do both, has the wrong formula.
And if Ohtani needs a second operation at Tommy John, he’ll miss the start of next season as a single hitter and all that as a pitcher. Moreover, it took Ohtani practically two seasons to return from his first Tommy John procedure. So anyone who assumes he will pitch again in 2025 might be ambitious, given that the standard rehab will be disrupted by his strike next season.
If Tommy John is needed, it will take five years between the first and the second. How long would you estimate between the second and the third? Would he even get a third?
I also think it’s ambitious to assume that Ohtani will move smoothly to the outfield if he can’t throw anymore. Clearly, he currently has the athletic qualities needed to be an elite outfielder. But what is the warranty on an outfield arm if it requires two Tommy John procedures? There’s no way a team this offseason will buy a DH for the majority of a contract.
Shohei Ohtani’s free agency is much more complicated due to his injury. Corey Sipkin for the NY POST
I hope not. Ohtani is ideal for sports. I hope he doesn’t need surgery and if he does, he will heal well again as an elite player both ways. Hell, I hope a New York team signs him – it’s not my money and I would love to see him play on a daily basis.
But what shouldn’t be ignored for those spending the money is that alongside the announcement of Wednesday’s elbow tear for Ohtani, the Angels put Mike Trout back on the injured list with lingering pain. caused by a previously broken left hand. Trout has long been the best player in the game and currently holds the biggest contract ($426.5 million). But he no longer crosses the seasons without missing a considerable amount of time.
The following day, it was revealed that Stephen Strasburg was retiring. He was once considered the greatest amateur pitcher of all time and signed a seven-year, $245 million deal after being essential to the 2019 Nationals title. He will retire after making eight total starts on that pact.
These long contracts feel good the day they are signed. It’s generally a bad idea because of the risk – and as big as Ohtani is, he’s also a big risk, especially as a two-way player.
No organization should sign it without an owner determined to invest in a roster like Ohtani isn’t around.
2023-08-27 20:57:43
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