Chris Falica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Week 4 of the college football season is here, and I like several underdogs to bark this weekend.
As for betting on college football every week, I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I’ve got you covered.
On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.
Let’s dive into my favorite wagers for Week 4.
Last week: 2-2 (6-10 season)
(All times ET)
Air Force at San Jose State10:30 p.m. Friday, FS1 and the FOX Sports App
Air Force Falcons
AFA
-6.0
-226
o45.5
San Jose State Spartans
SJSU
+6.0
+184
u45.5
The Falcons are 3-0 after beating an FCS team (Robert Morris), an FCS team that has just become an FBS team (Sam Houston State) and one of the Mountain West’s bottom teams (Utah State).
The Spartans predictably got beaten up by USC and Oregon State, but the defense didn’t play poorly last week, as San Jose State lost at Toledo 21-17. The Spartans have turned it over just twice all season. I bring this up because, in a game versus an opponent like Air Force, where you aren’t going to get many possessions, you need to capitalize on yours.
Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro should give the Falcons some problems through the air and keep this one close — and us entertained on Friday night.
PICK: San Jose State (+6) to lose by fewer than 6 points (or win outright)
Auburn at Texas A&Mnoon Saturday, ESPN
Auburn Tigers
AUB
+8.0
+255
o51.5
Texas A&M Aggies
TXA&M
-8.0
-319
u51.5
In their road game at Cal, the Tigers put up a grand total of 14 points, turned it over four times and Payton Thorne was 9-for-14 passing for 94 yards.
This will be a bit tougher of a task, as the Aggies did what they should have done against a bad Louisiana-Monroe team last week (47-3). What if Miami is pretty good? That certainly would change one’s opinion of that 48-33 loss, no?
A&M has the better roster, and while I know this game has historically featured some big upsets and strange results, I don’t see that being the case here. The A&M defense will make things tough on Auburn while quarterback Conner Weigman and the offense will continue to grow.
PICK: Texas A&M (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points
Tulsa at Northern Illinoisnoon Saturday, CBSSN
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
TULSA
+4.0
+158
o54.5
Northern Illinois Huskies
NIU
-4.0
-189
u54.5
NIU shocked a bad Boston College team in the opener, but since then, the team has lost to Southern Illinois and Nebraska, scoring 11 points in each game.
The Huskies offense is nearly non-existent, and I’ll take the Golden Hurricane and the points here in the “drop in class” off consecutive drubbings at the hands of two of the better offenses in the country in Washington and Oklahoma.
PICK: Tulsa (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
Georgia Southern at Ball State2 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
Georgia Southern Eagles
GEOSOU
-6.0
-239
o61.5
Ball State Cardinals
MEMBER
+6.0
+195
u61.5
Six turnovers did the Eagles in last week at Wisconsin, and now Georgia Southern heads back on the road to a far less anticipated spot — Muncie, Indiana — to take on the Cardinals.
Ball State was competitive for a quarter at Kentucky and Georgia, and might be catching QB Davis Brin and Georgia Southern at the right time — big underdog last game, let an upset chance slip away, now favored on the road against a team that hasn’t played terrible defense so far.
The Eagles have a home game against Coastal Carolina next week, so this feels like the ultimate sandwich spot.
PICK: Ball State (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
Liberty at Florida International6:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
Liberty Flames
LIB
-10.0
-388
o54.5
FIU Golden Panthers
FIU
+10.0
+302
u54.5
At some point, the turnover fairy has to stop for the Flames, no? Liberty is +8 on the year, and turnovers were huge factors in the wins over Bowling Green and New Mexico State.
The 55-27 win at Buffalo was no fluke, but now you’re going on the road again to FIU, which is shockingly 3-1 and could be 4-0. The Golden Panthers are 3-0 with young QB Keyone Jenkins, including outscoring North Texas 46-39 two weeks ago.
Maybe it’s time to buy in a little bit more to FIU before the numbers catch up.
PICK: FIU (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points (or win outright)
No. 3 Texas at Baylor7:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC
3
Texas Longhorns
TEXAS
-14.5
-652
o49.5
Baylor Bears
BAYLOR
+14.5
+465
u49.5
After sleepwalking through the Wyoming game, expect the Longhorns offense to explode here. Baylor gave up 42 points to Texas State, and Texas has a far better set of offensive players than the Bobcats.
It just doesn’t look like a typical Dave Aranda defense. It wasn’t good last year, and I’m not sure if it is any better this year. Quinn Ewers and that receiving corps should put up points and have a monster day.
PICK: Texas team total Over 33.5 points
Mississippi State at South Carolina7:30 p.m. Saturday, SEC
Mississippi State Bulldogs
MSST
+6.0
+189
o47
South Carolina Gamecocks
SCAR
-6.0
-234
u47
There could be some residuals in this game after the Gamecocks’ hard-fought 24-14 loss at Georgia last week. Included in that is the injury to wide receiver Juice Wells, which will be a factor here against a Mississippi State team that was pretty much a no-show last week against LSU.
Will Rogers didn’t suddenly forget how to play QB and the Bulldogs, at some point, will convert more than 30% of their third downs. After being embarrassed last week, expect MSU to make a better showing of itself.
PICK: Mississippi State (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
Western Michigan at Toledo, 1:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN+
WMU has predictably been throttled by two Power 5 teams the last two weeks and now gets a little break in the schedule as it returns to MAC play. As QB Dequan Finn goes, so does the Rockets offense. Last week, Finn threw for just 92 yards and the Rockets needed a pick six to beat San Jose State. I’m not really sure what the level is for WMU, but getting 21.5 here in its MAC opener, I’m willing to take a chance.
PICK: Western Michigan (+21.5) to lose by fewer than 21.5 points (or win outright)
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrysphallic.
 
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2023-09-22 14:39:56
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