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Conference competition is heating up, and today, Ohio State beat writer Cameron Teague Robinson joins me to share a breakdown and a prediction for the Buckeyes’ date with Penn State.
But first, here’s what’s happening in college football Until Saturday …
Poll Movement
Washington soars, USC plummets
This week’s AP poll climber was Washington, which rose two spots to No. 5. Meanwhile, three teams suffered major drops: USC down eight to No. 18, Louisville down seven to No. 21 and UCLA down seven to No. 25.
Here are the top five (with first-place votes in parentheses):
1. Georgia (43)
2.Michigan (16)
3. Ohio State (1)
4. Florida State (1)
5. Washington (2)
A few takeaways:
Hello G5! No. 22 Air Force (6-0) and No. 23 Tulane (5-1) jumped into the poll this week. The Falcons beat a ranked Wyoming team 34-27 on Saturday while Tulane topped Memphis 31-21 on Friday. This is Air Force’s first appearance in the poll since 2019.
Oh, Iowa. The Hawkeyes (6-1) are back in the poll at No. 24 after beating Wisconsin and taking control of the Big Ten West. Iowa’s last appearance in the poll was in Week 3. Despite having basically no offense, the Hawkeyes just keep winning. Even more jarring, a College Football Playoff appearance is not out of the picture, our David Ubben says.
Next to climb: First, it was Florida State. Then, it was Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma and Washington. Almost every week, a new team rockets up the poll. So, which is next? No. 7 Penn State has the biggest chance this week. With a road matchup against No. 3 Ohio State on Saturday, the Nittany Lions are in prime position to make a statement. But will Ohio State let them? I asked Cameron Teague Robinson for the keys to the game.
Drew Allar (15) and the Penn State Nittany Lions face Ohio State on Saturday. (Matthew O’Haren / USA Today)
Big Ten Showdown
Buckeyes-Nittany Lions keys
Here are my questions for Cameron about Saturday’s game and his thoughts, including a prediction:
Ohio State battled through injuries against Purdue (Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Wiliams out). What’s the update on their returns? There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding those injuries.
Ryan Day was secretive after the Purdue game, refusing to comment on any injury, but the initial word from Day last week on Henderson and Egbuka was that they were short-term injuries. I believe both were out on Saturday as a precaution. We have no word on Williams; his injury came out of the blue during the weekend.
But there are a few other concerning injuries. Running back Chip Trayanum, who has been Henderson’s backup this season, took a hard hit in the first half against Purdue and never returned. He seemed to have a head injury, but Day did not confirm that. In the second half, star cornerback Denzel Burke left the game and walked gingerly, although under his own power, to the locker room. That didn’t look too serious, and if I know Burke, he’s going to find his way onto the field on Saturday.
Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding some major players for Ohio State, and I doubt Day is going to tip his hand with any updates in his news conference on Tuesday.
Ohio State beats Penn State if … the offense takes care of the ball. This is going to be a defensive battle. Although both offenses combined for 104 points in their big wins on Saturday, these are defensive teams. Penn State and Ohio State are both giving up fewer than 10 points per game, so the Buckeyes can’t afford to turn the ball over and give Penn State a short field to score.
Think about this: In the past three games, Ohio State has given up 38 points, but 14 came after turnovers by its offense that led to short fields for the opposing offenses. Ohio State also has to stop the best rushing team in the Big Ten from gashing it, but that’s for another point.
Ohio State loses if … Penn State runs all over the defense. Ohio State’s defense is one of the best in the country, and it doesn’t give up big plays. But it has shown in the past three games that it can be susceptible to the run. Notre Dame ran for 176 yards (including 123 in the second half), Maryland had its good moments, and Purdue had some success.
Penn State is a better running team than all of those, and it leads the Big Ten with 203 yards per game and has two terrific backs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. The Ohio State linebackers have to be up to the challenge because Penn State QB Drew Allar is good even if he hasn’t been a major threat downfield.
If Ohio State can stifle the run, it can put Allar in some difficult down and distances. If not, Penn State, which averages a conference-leading 44 carries per game, is going to run all game and take control.
Your prediction? I’m going with Ohio State at home, if it’s healthy. I believe both defenses will play well, but Ohio State is the more explosive of the two, and that will give it an advantage for at least one drive. Give me Ohio State 17-14.
I know this is on paper, but I reserve the right to re-evaluate at the end of the week if injuries are still a problem, specifically Henderson, Egbuka and Burke.
2023-10-16 14:21:23
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