Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog plays for the Sunday slate of Week 4 games.
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Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 4
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x, even money, or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Monday night Underdog Pick’ems.
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For the Sunday slate, there are far more games than the individual prime-time games. Underdog entries are limited to five pick’ems. Most weeks, there will be more than five pick’ems I like. Additionally, hitting a five-pick’em entry is hard. I don’t want to consistently go 3-2 or 4-1 and lose.
As a result, I will limit this list to my favorite picks of the week. I will try and keep it to no more than 10 maximum. At the bottom of this article, I will provide my pick’em entry, which will be three to four of my top pick’ems.
Joe Mixon Lower Than 52.5 Rushing Yards
Death. Taxes. Running back rushing yards unders against the Titans. Joe Mixon is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry this season. He’s looked fine but hasn’t had anywhere to run.
Now, he gets what may be the best run defense in the NFL. The Titans are allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and allowed a total of 156 rushing yards through three games. I’m expecting a pass-heavy game plan from the Bengals against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense. Look for Mixon to finish with something like 14 carries for 42 yards.
Javonte Williams Higher Than 52.5 Rushing Yards
Death. Taxes. Running back rushing yards higher against the Bears. In Week 2, Rachaad White ran for 73 yards on 17 carries. Last week, Isiah Pacheco tallied 62 yards on 15 carries, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire recorded 55 yards on 15 carries.
Javonte Williams has struggled to get going because the Broncos can’t win any games. But he looks healthy, and he’s running with power. The Broncos are favored in this one. I’m feeling a Williams breakout game.
Roschon Johnson Higher Than 31.5 Rushing Yards
Roschon Johnson has gone above his rushing yards projection two weeks in a row. Let’s make it three.
I don’t think Underdog is reacting enough to Johnson’s steady increase in usage. This number presumes he’s still the clear backup to Khalil Herbert. This could be the week he flips the backfield. It also may not matter against a Broncos run defense allowing 6.1 ypc.
Johnson only needs a handful of carries to have a shot to hit this. If he sees 8-10, which is firmly in his range of outcomes, he should sail past this number.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Lower Than 28.5 Receiving Yards
Thankfully for everyone on the New England Patriots, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s knee has not exploded. But he’s a shell of his former self.
Smith-Schuster has surpassed 30 receiving yards just once this season (Week 1). Since then, he’s seen his snap share go up, but his target share goes down. JuJu’s targets went from seven to six to three. And last week, he ran a season-low 18 routes.
Smith-Schuster is the fifth option in this passing game behind DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s not explosive and no longer capable of splash plays.
As we saw in Week 2, he’s capable of racing up five receptions and still not getting to 30 yards. Against an angry Cowboys defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith-Schuster goes catchless.
Braxton Berrios Higher Than 24.5 Receiving Yards
This projection is curiously low for a guy who has gone higher than this number in all three games this season. Perhaps it’s because Jaylen Waddle is returning, and he and Tyreek Hill are locked in as the top two targets.
MORE: Week 4 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
However, River Cracraft and Erik Ezukanma are both out. Braxton Berrios is the clear WR3. With those two out, he could set a season high in routes run.
As we’ve seen over the first three games, Berrios only needs two catches to hit this number. He could easily catch 3-4 balls and reach 25 receiving yards.
Nelson Agholor Higher Than 24.5 Receiving Yards
This is another curiously low projection. Nelson Agholor has sailed higher than this number for two straight weeks. Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman are out, leaving Agholor as the WR2 behind Zay Flowers.
Agholor ran 33 routes per week and has seen 10 targets over the past two games. He should be running a route on nearly every Lamar Jackson dropback this week. I think we get there in the first half.
Chase Claypool Lower Than 19.5 Receiving Yards
Every season, there are not-so-great wide receivers I like to pick on. This year’s guy is Chase Claypool, who has gone lower than this number in two out of three games.
Claypool has had some choice words for Bears coaches, and there have been questions about his work ethic. I will fade him until he gives me a reason not to.
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2023-10-01 04:11:15
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