Seth WalderESPN AnalyticsNov 5, 2023, 07:10 AM ET4 Minute Read
Will the Texans cover against the Bucs?
Tyler Fulghum explains why he expects the Texans to cover in their matchup vs. the Buccaneers.
If I’m placing bets on a Sunday, I’m not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty, anyway. It’s what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.
If there’s an advantage to be found now, it’s in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.
Odds via ESPN BET.
QB interceptions
C.J. Stroud over 0.5 interceptions (+155 at ESPN BET)
Yes, he has thrown only one interception. But he’s still a rookie quarterback playing in what is expected to be a close game. And sometimes, picks just happen. My model suggests the fair over price is +121. So while the under should be favored, it believes the over is a value at the price offered.
See also:
Jordan Love under 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+115)
Pass completions
Baker Mayfield under 22.5 completions (-102)
I’m rolling out a new completions model this week, and it projects Mayfield to record just 20.5 completions. A simple but big factor: Mayfield’s below-average completion percentage (64%), which ranks 22nd among quarterbacks despite a slightly below average air yards per attempt.
See also:
Daniel Jones over 19.5 completions (-102)
Pass attempts
Lamar Jackson under 34.5 pass attempts (-114)
Even under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens still drop back to pass at a below-average rate. And when they do, no QB scrambles more often than Jackson (12% of the time), which takes away some attempts. And the Ravens are also decent-sized favorites, so there’s a chance they end up going quite run heavy.
Receptions
D’Andre Swift under 2.5 receptions (+115)
There’s no model here, just some compelling stats. Leaguewide this year, running backs catch passes on 15% of dropbacks vs. zone but on just 9% of dropbacks against man coverage. The splits for Swift are more extreme: Only one of Swift’s 28 receptions this season has come against man. And guess which team deploys the man-heaviest defense in the league? Dallas, by a significant margin, running man 68% of the time.
Sacks
Montez Sweat (CHI) under 0.5 sacks (-110)
My model prices this at -149, and while that’s accounting for Sweat now playing for a substantial underdog in this game, it’s not considering that he no longer has the benefit of playing alongside Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Chase Young. Chicago’s pass rush is much worse, and that hurts Sweat’s chances to record a sack.
Nate Landman (ATL) over 7.5 tackles + assists (-106)
My model projects 8.2 tackles + assists for Landman, but I think even that is low given Vikings quarterback Jaren Hall will likely be starting in place of the injured Kirk Cousins. Yes, that is reflected in the spread and therefore to some degree in the model. But I think it means the Vikings will have to shift into less of a pass-first team, and that is not reflected in the model’s forecast. Thus, the over.
See also:
D/ST anytime touchdowns
Jessie Bates III (ATL) over 0.5 interceptions (+480)
My model makes this a value (+351), though to be fair, we’re mostly guessing here on Jaren Hall. I generally assume any quarterback without data is in the 25th percentile for most statistics (like, say, interception rate).
That might be generous for Hall, who is not just making his NFL starting debut, but doing so as a fifth-round rookie.
Results
Last week
QB interceptions: 1-0 (+1.0 unit)
Pass attempts: 0-1 (-1.0 unit)
D/ST touchdowns: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Sacks: 7-7 (+4.5 units)
Tackles: 7-3 (+3.4 units)
Overall: 15-13 (+5.8 units)
2023 Season
QB interceptions: 7-12 (-3.5 units)
Pass attempts: : 2-5 (-3.5 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
Sacks: 50-39-1 (+10.1 units)
Tackles: 35-21 (+11.7 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 98-104-1 (+5.8 units)
2023-11-05 12:10:00
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