Lincoln Riley is among the best in the nation when it comes to designing and calling offensive plays. His units have been creative and explosive at every stop on his collegiate journey, which is why his name is regularly mentioned as someone to watch when an NFL vacancy surfaces.
That talk is heating up early this year. With only two games remaining in the season, and his USC squad ostensibly out of the running for any significant postseason possibilities after losing for the third time in four games Saturday, speculation about his future is going to be a regular topic of conversation until it’s not.
Dan Patrick speculated before the college season that Riley could finally be ready to make the jump, then fanned those flames again two weeks ago on his multi-platform show, reciting how “InsideUSC with Scott Wolf” reported that “chatter within NFL coaching circles” is that Riley not only is putting out NFL feelers but he would also be receptive to overtures if they involve a package deal with Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams, the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
My message to NFL owners: caveat emptor.
It’s understandable if you feel this discussion is premature, coming with 10 weeks remaining in the NFL season. But things don’t happen suddenly in the NFL. Team executives know well before the end of the season whether they will make a change and plan accordingly. Fact is, decision-makers regularly keep a list of prospective coaches even when things are going well. Their attitude is, you don’t have to get ready if you stay ready.
We know the Las Vegas Raiders are looking for a new coach after firing Josh McDaniels earlier this week, and a handful of other clubs figure to be in the market considering an average of roughly seven new coaches have been hired each year since 2000.
If Riley wants an NFL job, his resume will definitely get him an interview. Club owners are infatuated with offensive play callers because NFL rules strongly favor offenses and passing games. And with quarterback being the highest-paid position, the need to develop that position is considered paramount, which can make for decisions that are sound in theory but poor in practice. Look no further than Kliff Kingsbury.
Despite being fired at Texas Tech after going 35-40 over six seasons, Kingsbury immediately was hired by the Arizona Cardinals because he had a reputation as a creative offensive mind and there was a belief he could bring out the best in quarterback Kyler Murray.
End result: The Cardinals fired Kingsbury after going 28-37-1 over four seasons.
There is so much more to being a head coach than calling plays, which is why Riley scares me. Yes, he has had a lot of success, going 55-10 and finishing in the AP Top 10 in each of his five seasons at Oklahoma; he is 18-6 in two seasons with the Trojans. But his teams have regularly come up small in big games.
He was 1-3 in bowl games with the Sooners, and is 0-1 with the Trojans. Last season, his team led Tulane by 15 with 4:30 to play and still squandered the advantage. Sometimes you have to win with grit instead of glamor. Riley’s teams rarely display that quality. Consider Saturday against undefeated Washington.
The Trojans scored 14 points in each of the first three quarters and did not punt until the fourth quarter. They passed for 312 yards, rushed for 202 and were 4-for-4 in the red zone. And yet they were shut out in the fourth quarter and lost 52-42.
This marks the first time Riley has lost three games in a season, and he could be staring at five overall with games remaining against Oregon and UCLA. If Williams forgoes his final season and jumps to the NFL, might that factor in Riley’s future?
He has previously said he envies the life of an NFL coach, which he described as “awesome in a lot of ways” because there is no recruiting season, so to speak. The NFL schedule allows for more family time in the offseason, which is important to him. He also has indicated he does not see himself as a coaching lifer, acknowledging a bigger picture.
“I know right now, there are things I want to do,” Riley told the Los Angeles Times earlier this year. “I don’t want to have regrets when I’m done, at the end of my life. I do think about that. I just don’t want to have regrets, especially with anything that has to do with my family. It’s hard not to consider the possibility of starting over in life.”
GO DEEPER
No. 5 Washington outlasts No. 20 USC to remain unbeaten
It likely would be easier to jump to the NFL if he knew Williams would be his quarterback, but it will be months before the draft order is determined. Currently, 14 teams have three or fewer wins, with five having two or fewer. And some of those teams don’t figure to be in the market for a new coach considering two have coaches in their first season and two others have coaches in their second year — which is not to say a team won’t make a change in those situations. McDaniels was fired midway through his second season, and Arizona owner Michael Bidwill previously fired coach Steve Wilks after one season.
So nothing should be ruled out. But it’s fair to ask whether Riley is truly built for the NFL. Yes, he developed Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks in Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Williams, but Mayfield and Murray have not enjoyed the same type of success in the NFL. Mayfield is with his fourth team in six seasons, and Murray is still trying to establish himself as a true franchise player.
Another concern: Riley has a reputation for micromanaging. He temporarily suspended a beat writer this season because he took issue with what was reported. He will not have that type of power or control on the next level, and he also doesn’t figure to receive many of the perks that accompanied the job at USC. Heck, there are no guarantees he would receive a salary that matches or exceeds his current income.
In the meantime, we must deal with the mixed messages surrounding Riley. Is he interested in the NFL or not? The current “chatter” seems to indicate he is. But Riley was less committal in 2019, telling Patrick of the jump from college to the NFL: “They see it as a steppingstone deal, and that is true for players; (but) for coaches, it’s not. College and the NFL are similar in a lot of ways. I don’t know if you can say one is better than the other. I think it comes down to the individual person.”
In the case of Riley, I’d be awfully careful before thinking he’s the right fit for an NFL club.
(Photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
2023-11-05 12:01:18
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