Eight ranked teams lost after the initial College Football Playoff rankings, so there are bound to be changes in Week 11. Before the CFP committee unveils the rankings on Tuesday, I predict where the top 25 teams will land.
The second of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 7 (here’s the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.
College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Week 11 Top 25 projections
These predictions are as of Sunday, Nov. 5.
Georgia (9-0) | LW: 2 — The reason Ohio State ranked above Georgia in the first CFP rankings was ranked wins. After beating then-No. 12 Missouri, the Bulldogs have a win to put them back atop the rankings.
Ohio State (9-0) | LW: 1 — Ohio State trailed Rutgers at halftime. That, plus Georgia’s win, drops the Buckeyes a spot.
Michigan (9-0) | LW: 3 — Michigan stays put after another win with a wide margin of victory.
Washington (9-0) | LW: 5 — Washington picked up a ranked win over then-No. 20 Southern California to give it the boost into the top four.
Florida State (9-0) | LW: 4 — Florida State’s struggles against Pittsburgh drop the Seminoles out of the top four.
Oregon (8-1) | LW:6 — Oregon dominated Cal in a blowout.
Texas (8-1) | LW: 7 — Texas narrowly beat then-No. 23 Kansas State in overtime, but head-to-head matters and that keeps the Longhorns above Alabama.
Alabama (8-1) | LW: 8 — It’ll be hard for Alabama to pass Texas until the Longhorns lose, even with a ranked SEC win like LSU.
Ole Miss (8-1) | LW: 10 — Ole Miss could fall here after only a three-point win over Texas A&M, but the Aggies play in the SEC, so a win is a win.
Penn State (8-1) | LW: 11 — Penn State enters the top 10 after a win over Maryland.
Louisville (8-1) | LW: 13 — Louisville moves up two spots after Oklahoma and Missouri’s losses.
Missouri (7-2) | LW: 12 — Missouri stays put. Yes, the Tigers lost to Georgia, but Oklahoma, LSU and Notre Dame all lost too. There’s no two-loss team that looked better than Missouri last week.
Oregon State (7-2) | LW: 16 — Oregon State held off a late rally from Coach Prime and Colorado to move up.
Tennessee (7-2) | LW: 17 — Tennessee could rise higher after a dominant win over UConn. The eye test would allow it, but the Vols’ resume that includes a loss to Florida won’t.
Utah (7-2) | LW: 18 — Utah only allowed three points to Arizona State. The Utes move up three spots.
Oklahoma State (7-2) | LW: 22 — Oklahoma State rises six spots after defeating a then-top-10 Oklahoma team. The Cowboys should rank above the Sooners wherever they end up in the rankings.
Oklahoma (7-2) | LW: 9 — Oklahoma falls one spot below Oklahoma State. How many spots the Sooners dip depends on how high the Cowboys get ranked.
LSU (6-3) | LW: 14 — LSU was the highest-ranked two-loss team last week. The Bayou Bengals will be the highest ranked three-loss team with all of its defeats coming to top-10 opponents.
Kansas (7-2) | LW: 21 — Kansas stays behind LSU because a seven-point win over Iowa State isn’t impressive.
Tulane (8-1) | LW: 24 — A three-point win over East Carolina may keep Tulane at No. 24, but I think the committee will change its tune from last week to put the Green Wave in the top 20.
Notre Dame (7-3) | LW: 15 — Notre Dame won’t fall out of the rankings but it will see a steep drop after a loss to Clemson.
UCLA (7-3) | LW: 19 — UCLA lost to a resurgent Arizona team. However, the Bruins stay in the rankings because of the Pac-12’s depth.
North Carolina (7-2) | LW: NR — North Carolina bounced back with a win over FCS opponent Campbell after losing its two previous games. However, since the two-loss Tar Heels were unranked last week, they won’t enter the top 20.
Southern California (7-3) | LW: 20 — The Trojans have lost three of their last four games, but a head-to-head win over Arizona keeps Southern California in the rankings over a 6-3 Arizona team.
Liberty (9-0) | LW: NR — Liberty takes Air Force’s spot as the last ranked team that’s also undefeated.
New teams: Liberty, North Carolina
Teams to drop out: Kansas State (23), Air Force (25)
CFP????: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule
Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions
Does Ohio State drop after its slow start to Rutgers?
Ohio State looked the worst of last week’s top three teams, trailing to an unranked Rutgers team at halftime. Will that be enough to drop the Buckeyes from the top spot, even with a win? Georgia hopes a ranked win can get it back to the top, while Ohio State’s rival Michigan will always think it should be above the Buckeyes.
UNDEFEATED TRACKER: Here’s a look at all of the undefeated FBS teams
How will the committee sort the two-loss teams?
Expect eight two-loss teams in Week 11’s College Football Playoff rankings. Where each team will land remains to be seen. While the reasoning in the top 10 of last week’s rankings was clear, the latter part of the rankings created confusion. Did the committee value head-to-head wins, ranked wins, or something else? We’ll see what the committee values more in Week 11 with even more teams neck-and-neck.
Stan Becton joined NCAA.com in 2021 and has since served as an FCS, track and field, cross country and HBCU beat reporter. He has covered numerous NCAA championship events, including the FCS Championship, DI Track & Field Championships and Men’s Frozen Four. Additionally, he has covered the 2022 College Football Playoff’s Peach Bowl and HBCU sporting events like the Celebration Bowl and Legacy Classic. Stan graduated from Carnegie Mellon University, earning a degree in Professional Writing and playing football as a five-year letterman. You can follow him on Twitter @stan_becton.
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2023-11-06 04:30:27
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