I started sharing my NFL predictions in The newspaper last November 25. Since that time, I have offered 11 picks and these have generated a mind-blowing record of 9 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw.
The only loss was “Tennessee +1.5” to the Colts in Week 13, a game the Titans lost by a three-point margin in overtime. Nothing too embarrassing!
Obviously, we won’t be able to maintain this level of success forever. That said, I will obviously do my best to provide you with the best possible choices to help you extract money from the casinos!
Choix 1 NFL
Photo credit: Getty Images via AFP
My top pick for Week 17 of NFL action is the Chicago Bears (+2.5 points) at home against the Atlanta Falcons. I have several arguments in favor of the Illinois club in this duel.
Don’t laugh too hard, because Chicago will be a good team in 2024. If we look at their last six games, we will see that the Bears are playing good football. They also maintained a 4-2 record. Their two losses were suffered by a score of 31 to 26 against the Detroit Lions and 20 to 17 against the Cleveland Browns. There is nothing shameful in that!
Atlanta’s offense is not performing well on the road this year. Indeed, the Falcons averaged 14.7 points per game as a visiting club, despite playing against several weak defenses.
It won’t be easy this week. The Falcons aren’t used to playing when it’s cold and that’s exactly what they’ll do on Sunday. Currently, a temperature of 0°C is announced for the match.
Plus, the matchup is perfect for the Bears. Their defensive unit is built to stop the run: that’s what the Falcons’ offense primarily relies on.
The Bears should be well rested, as they will be at home for a fourth week of five. Their only outing was to Cleveland, which was not a long trip.
Chicago also gets the “revenge” factor, as it will look to avenge a 27-24 loss to Atlanta last year.
The Falcons are 2-5 on the road, while the Bears are 4-3 at home. I believe Chicago will officially end Atlanta’s playoff chances by winning this Sunday.
Choix 2 NFL
Photo credit: Getty Images via AFP
My second choice in the NFL is the Washington Commanders (+13 points) at home against the San Francisco 49ers. Yes, I believe that the club from the American capital will not lose by 14 points or more!
Let’s look at the Niners’ last two games. Last week, they allowed 33 points and 343 yards to the Baltimore Ravens. The previous week, the weak Arizona Cardinals scored 29 points and threw for 436 yards against them. This allows me to believe that the Commanders have a real chance of scoring points.
I’m going to reveal to you a way of betting that few people know. Let’s say a team had at least three interceptions in its last game. If she is favored to win by 5.5 points or more the following week, she is unlikely to beat the spread. Under these circumstances, these teams have posted a record of 17-26 over several seasons, a success percentage of 39.5%.
This seems logical to me! After being intercepted so often the week before, these teams tend to become more conservative and therefore less likely to pull off a blowout victory in their next outing. Considering Brock Purdy committed four thefts last week, that qualifies Washington as a good bet this week.
The 49ers also lost a full day of rest and preparation since they played Monday night, which is another advantage for the Commanders.
It’s also worth noting that the game will start at 1 p.m. Eastern Time, which is 10 a.m. for players in San Francisco. These are not ideal conditions.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett will get the start for the Commanders. He’s looked very good both times he’s replaced Sam Howell this season, throwing three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Last year with the Browns, he finished with 12 passes for majors and six steals. Not bad.
I’m not saying the Commanders will pull off a huge upset by beating the 49ers, but I think Washington will cover the big 13-point spread!
Photo credit: Getty Images via AFP
NHL Picks
In the National Hockey League, we have had great success in our predictions when we appeal to the “fatigue” factor. Let’s continue to exploit this vein!
During the matches which will be held on Saturday December 30, two teams will have a strong advantage in terms of scheduling: the
Sabres and the
Lightning.
These two clubs will play at home this Saturday. Their last duel also took place at home, on December 27. In other words, Buffalo and Tampa Bay will get two full days of rest in the comfort of home.
On the other hand, their rivals (the Blue Jackets and the Rangers) will be much more tired for two major reasons: they will have played the day before, Friday December 29; they will have to travel at night.
For these reasons, I believe that the Sabers (against Columbus) and the Lightning (against the Rangers) will be underestimated by bettors and represent a good betting opportunity.
Happy New Year 2024 to you!
2023-12-30 05:00:00
#Bears #Commanders #surprise #NFL
