Now that the NFL finalists are known in anticipation of Super Bowl LVIII, which will be presented on February 11 in Las Vegas, fans have a little less than two weeks to analyze the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers before making their insightful predictions for the most-watched game of the year.
The 49ers, on the one hand, finished the regular season with the best record in the NFC (12-5, tied with the Lions and Cowboys). On the other, the Kansas City Chiefs are participating in a 4th Super Bowl in the last five years. Patrick Mahomes and his teammates are 2-2 in those appearances.
With sports betting in the spotlight, as usual, during the presentation of the Super Bowl, observers are already very attentive to the movement of predictions and the day after the association finals, we have a favorite team… by one very small margin.
The Niners favored
As of this writing, Monday morning, sportsbooks have the 49ers pegged as the favorite team to win the Super Bowl.
On the Loto-Québec websitefor example, the Niners are favored by one point and if you want to bet on a Chiefs victory, the advantageous odds of 2.00 will be attractive for your bets.
In the same vein, the total points are set at 47.5. So, experts expect good performances from the attacks.
Depending on the majority of people’s bets, these odds will change.
Historically, on the other hand, does the favored status offer an advantage on neutral ground?
Beware of point gaps
Since 2014, the team favored to win the Super Bowl has lost six times. This is therefore a return of 40% for the training considered the best by experts.
When you dig deeper and look at the point spreads, it’s even more interesting.
In 2022, the Rams won the game, but since they were favored by 4 points, it was a loss for the bettors after a final score of 23-20 against the Bengals.
The line has stabilized at 1 point or 1.5 points twice in the last ten years. In 2020, the Chiefs beat the 49ers despite being favored by 1.5 points. In 2015, the Seahawks were favored by one point and gave the game to the Patriots with the controversial play that led to an interception in the end zone to the Pats’ advantage.
This is the second year in a row that the Chiefs enter the Super Bowl as underdogs, although the 1-point gap suggests fairness between the two teams.
For a bit of history, the Patriots were involved in the two biggest upsets in Super Bowl history when considering point spreads before the game.
In 2008, against the New York Giants, New England arrived at the Super Bowl with a 12-point advantage according to the betting houses. After a perfect 16-0 season, the Pats lost in the Super Bowl.
In 2002, on the other side of the coin, the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era began against the Rams who entered the Super Bowl with a 14-point advantage. The “Greatest Show on Turf” led by Kurt Warner lost to New England, 20-17.
2024-01-29 15:36:30
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