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For one day at least, the 2024 NFL Draft was put on the side burner when the league’s version of the hot stove lit up with a blockbuster trade that saw wide receiver Stefon Diggs land in Houston.
But as that deal makes it’s way through the news cycle, we’re bringing the draft back to the forefront with a mock of the first five picks.
Get beyond the first pick, and there’s some intrigue about how the next four selections will unfold. We made a call to our old pal Daniel Jeremiah, the NFL Network’s top draft analyst, to help guide us.
Here’s how we see things unfolding three weeks out from the Chicago Bears officially being put on the clock.
All odds listed are from FanDuel as of April 3.
Top-5 NFL Mock Draft
No. 1 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsCaleb WilliamsQBUSC-8000Jayden DanielsQBLSU+3000Drake MayeQBNorth Carolina+4000
Current owner of pick: Chicago Bears
Why Caleb Williams is the favorite: By trading Justin Fields, the Bears have clearly signaled that the former Heisman Trophy winner and consensus top overall quarterback in the draft will be the pick at No. 1, and the odds reflect that reality.
Why it could be someone else: Although they have quieted down in recent months, rumors persisted for awhile that Williams didn’t want to play for the Bears. He didn’t help matters when he liked a post on X from a fan saying Chicago should not draft him. So it’s possible (although highly improbable) that we see another Eli Manning situation. And even then, Williams should still go No. 1.
Our pick at No. 1: Caleb Williams
The Bears need a quarterback and Williams is the best in the draft, maybe even the best in the last five years. Even in an unlikely scenario Chicago trades the pick, no team is moving up to the top spot to take a receiver or edge rusher or any other quarterback not named Caleb Williams. Lock him in.
No. 2 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsJayden DanielsQBLSU-105Drake MayeQBNorth Carolina+110J.J. McCarthyQBMichigan+650
Current owner of the pick: Washington Commanders
Why Jayden Daniels is the favorite: It’s a near certainty the Commanders will take a quarterback after trading Sam Howell and exchanging in free agency Jacoby Brissett for Marcus Mariota, who is now No. 1 on the team’s depth chart. With Williams off the board, Daniels becomes the next quarterback up … maybe.
Why it could be someone else: What flavor of ice cream does new GM Adam Peters, new head coach Dan Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury like? The answer could be Daniels, Drake Maye or even J.J. McCarthy, whose meteoric rise over the past couple of months rivals that of Zach Wilson in 2021. Oof.
Jayden Daniels #QB01 of the LSU Tigers speaks to the media during the 2024 NFL Draft Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 01, 2024. Getty Images
Our pick at No. 2: Drake Maye
At the annual league meetings in Orlando last week, Quinn insisted the Commanders are “not there yet” on their choice at No. 2, which probably explains why it’s a flip of the coin with oddsmakers between Daniels and Maye.
“I’ve stuck with Drake at this pick in all of my mock drafts,” Jeremiah said. “Dan Quinn had the most success with Matt Ryan, and who’s the Matt Ryan of this draft? Drake Maye. He reminds you of Ryan because of his prototypical size and how he extends plays. And while he’s quiet off the field, he’s got that Ryan energy when he plays.”
No. 3 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsDrake MayeQBLSU+115Jayden DanielsQBNorth Carolina+130J.J. McCarthyQBMichigan+430Marvin Harrison Jr.WROhio State+1600
Current owner of the pick: New England Patriots
Why Drake Maye is the favorite: This week he’s the favorite, but oddsmakers have flipped on Picks 2 and 3 since they were first posted. There’s a good chance that if Daniels goes No. 2, Maye follows at No. 3, and vice versa. One thing we know for sure, if the Patriots keep this pick, it will be a quarterback.
Why it could be someone else: While quarterback is New England’s top need and the position is almost assuredly pegged for this spot, it doesn’t mean the Patriots will be the team picking a QB here. If Maye goes to the Commanders in the spot above, that leaves Daniels or the fast-rising McCarthy. Like most years, the demand for quarterbacks is greater than the supply. The Patriots could receive a nice haul for this pick and expedite their rebuild under Jerod Mayo by trading it.
Our pick at No. 3: Jayden Daniels
With five seasons under his belt as a starter in college, Daniels is the most ready among the top quarterbacks to take over an NFL team immediately. He’s not a flawless quarterback, but he’s smart and is a leader. And the Patriots, who floundered last season with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe and a completely dysfunctional quarterback room, need immediate help at the position.
“I was in that building (Gillette Stadium) last year calling the Chargers game and they (the Patriots) didn’t score a single point,” Jeremiah said, referring to New England’s historic 6-0 loss in early December. “When it’s their pick, they’ll be staring at two pretty good quarterbacks on their board. It’s hard for me to come up with a scenario in which they don’t take one of them.”
No. 4 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsMarvin Harrison Jr.WROhio State-200J.J. McCarthyQBMichigan+330Drake MayeQBNorth Carolina+900Jayden DanielsQBLSU+1100Malik NabersWRLSU+1700
Current owner of the pick: Arizona Cardinals
Why Marvin Harrison Jr. is the favorite: It makes sense, but only if the Cardinals keep the pick, and with one of the top four quarterbacks still on the board (in the case of this mock, J.J. McCarthy), there will be plenty of teams vying to move up into this spot.
Why it could be someone else: Harrison is a special talent but the Cardinals’ needs are massive, and trading this pick to a desperate QB-needy team willing to overpay makes more sense than keeping it. The Giants (No. 6) and Vikings (11) look like teams who could be positioning themselves for such a move.
Our pick at No. 4: J.J. McCarthy
We’ve seen this play out before with rapid-risers like Wilson in 2021, Joe Burrow in 2020 and Kyler Murray the year before that. A mixed bag for sure, but what this shows is that teams are willing to roll the dice in the top five picks for a quarterback they believe can be a franchise player. The McCarthy buzz isn’t just Jim Harbaugh hyperbole. It’s real and gaining momentum.
“There’s legitimate love for him around the league,” Jeremiah said. “He’s my fourth quarterback in this draft and my 20th overall player. He’s an acquired taste. His tape doesn’t flash like the other top guys because they didn’t run the offense through him (at Michigan).”
Some team is going to squint really hard and see Tom Brady for all the obvious (and wrong) reasons, then mortgage the future in order to move up into this spot and take McCarthy.
No. 5 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsMalik NabersWRLSU+200Marvin Harrison Jr.WROhio State+300J.J. McCarthyQBMichigan+400Joe AltOTNotre Dame+500Rome OdunzeWRWashington+1600
Current owner of the pick: Los Angeles Chargers
Why Malik Nabers is the favorite: Don’t forget, the Chargers were the opponent in that awful Patriots game last year and managed just six points. Although his quarterback is in place, new head coach Jim Harbaugh inherited a mess, and his first order of business will be to get Justin Herbert more weapons after letting Mike Williams walk and trading Keenan Allen to the Bears. Nabers would be a great start.
Why it could be someone else: This is another flavor preference. Both Nabers and Harrison are dynamic receivers, but Harbaugh had a close-up view of Harrison, who torched Michigan for 12 catches, 238 yards (19.8 average) and a pair of touchdowns across two games.
Malik Nabers is a contender to be the top wide receiver off the board. Getty Images
Our pick at No. 5: Marvin Harrison Jr.
While Harrison will certainly be the best player available if he’s still around at this spot, will the Chargers be the one taking him with this pick? Jeremiah has his doubts.
“If you look at how Jim Harbaugh thinks and how he believes in building a football team — you build the foundation before you build anything else,” Jeremiah said. “All we’ve heard (since Harbaugh’s hiring) is how they are going to protect Justin Herbert and run the football.”
Wide receiver has a ton of depth in this draft, and as tempting as it would be for the Chargers to take Harrison, this is a likely drop-down spot for them, allowing some other team — like the Jets, who are all in with Aaron Rodgers — to take the uber-talented Ohio State wideout.
Odds for the rest of the top 8
No. 6 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsMalik NabersWRLSU+160Rome OdunzeWRWashington+470J.J. McCarthyQBMichigan+500Joe AltOTNotre Dame+500Marvin Harrison Jr.WROhio State+850
No. 7 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsJoe AltOTNotre Dame-120Taliese FuagaOTOregon State+600Rome OdunzeWRWashington+750Olu FashanuOTPenn State+1000Malik NabersWRLSU+1000J.J. McCarthyQBMichigan+1500
No. 8 overall pick odds
PlayerPos.SchoolOddsDallas TurnerLBAlabama+150Quinyon MitchellCBToledo+800Laiatu LatuDEWashington+1000Rome OdunzeWRWashington+1000Terrion ArnoldCBAlabama+1200J.J. McCarthyQBMichigan+1200Jared VerseDEFlorida State+1200Byron MurphyDTTexas+1400
2024-04-04 12:56:00
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