The big fear in the Easycredit Basketball Bundesliga!
Five game days before the end of the regular BBL season there is high tension in the table cellar.
A third of the league is still trembling about falling into the second division. For the last six teams the motto is: Save yourself if you can!
Dream assist from World Cup hero Bayern star with mega dunk
Source: DYN MEDIA 23.04.2024
Two teams have to believe in it after the last matchday on May 12th at the latest and compete in the lower house next season. As of now it would be Crailsheim and Tübingen. Who gets hit in the end?
Someone who knows the BBL very well is Bastian Doreth (34/375 Bundesliga games for Bamberg, Bayern, Trier, Artland, Bayreuth). The ex-national player (96 international matches) currently plays for second division club Nuremberg and will end his career after the season.
For SPORT BILD, today’s Dyn expert assesses the gripping relegation battle.
Table before the last five matchdays
PlatzvereinSiegquote13BG Göttingen31 % (9 S -20 N) 14Rostock Seawolves28,6 % (8-20)15Syntainics MBC27,6 % (8-21)16MLP Academics Heidelberg27,6 % (8-21)17Hakro Merlins Crailsheim24,1 % (7-22)18Tigers Tübingen20,7 % (6-23)
BG Göttingen
BG Göttingen has the best starting position before the final five match days. Lower Saxony has the most wins of all basement teams (9). The basis for staying in the league?
Doreth: “You have the best chance of staying in this constellation. I assume that one win from the remaining five games will be enough for them to stay in the league. The chance of winning it is greatest on the penultimate matchday against MBC.”
Foto: picture alliance / Eibner-Pressefoto, picture alliance / BEAUTIFUL SPORTS/Wunderl, picture alliance / nordphoto GmbH / Hafner, picture alliance / Pressefoto Ba
In addition: “The BG is ahead against four of the five relegation competitors in a direct comparison.” That would be important if two teams had the same number of wins.
The only thing that can get in their way is the injury misery: Doreth: “They recently played a seven-man rotation, if one of them is out, then you have a six-man rotation, then you won’t win a game anymore.”
RestprogrammBamberg (A)Oldenburg (H)Vechta (A)MBC (H)Hamburg (A)
CHANCES OF MAINTAINING THE CLASS: 70%
Rostock Seawolves
The Seawolves from Rostock have suddenly discovered their away strength. After only scoring twice in their first eleven games away from home, they recently celebrated two away wins in a row. Including the extremely important 95:72 against fellow competitor Tübingen.
The rest of the program has it all: Bonn, Ludwigsburg and, on the last matchday, Bayern are still waiting for the North Germans. Not the only challenge, analyzes Doreth: “What worries me a bit about Rostock is that an important player, Chevez Goodwin (26), is injured. He is the best rebounder on the team (6.8 on average, editor). And since rebounding and defense are often a problem area for the Seawolves, this is a major weakening in my opinion.”
Nevertheless, Doreth believes that Rostock will stay in the league. Provided they are successful at home in the key game on the penultimate matchday against Crailsheim. Doreth: “You have to win this. Then I trust them to stay in the position in the table they are currently in.”
Remaining programBonn (A)Ludwigsburg (H)Braunschweig (A)Crailsheim (H)Bavaria (A)
CHANCES OF MAINTAINING THE CLASS: 60%
Syntainics MBC
The Syntainics Mitteldeutscher BC is currently in free fall. Recently they suffered five bankruptcies in a row. There were just two wins from the last twelve games.
Doreth: “I have the hardest time making a prediction for the MBC because nominally they actually have a good team. They have already shown against top teams that they can keep up. An absolute surprise for me!”
Heidelberg and Crailsheim are putting a lot of pressure on from below. And of all things, it’s against Bayern’s conqueror Heidelberg on Friday (8 p.m. live on Dyn/DISP). “This will point the way,” Doreth is certain. “If they win this, in my opinion they will be saved.”
Remaining programHeidelberg (H)Würzburg (A)Ludwigsburg (H)Göttingen (A)Vechta (A)
CHANCES OF MAINTAINING THE CLASS: 50%
MLP Academics Heidelberg
With coach Ingo Freyer (53), whom Doreth considers “one of the most underestimated coaches in the league”, Heidelberg is the team with the strongest form in the last ten matchdays (5 wins). With the sensational win against Bayern at the latest, Heidelberg has absolute faith in staying in the league.
“Here too, the game that points the way is the one against MBC on Friday, because there will be little to gain after that,” predicts Doreth.
Coach Ingo Freyer played a decisive role in Heidelberg suddenly having a realistic chance of staying in the league
Photo: picture alliance / Eibner-Pressefoto
The last game of the season at home against bottom team Tübingen can also be quite unpleasant. Doreth: “You don’t want to make it to the very last matchday where you’ll be playing against a team that – I think – will already have been relegated. They play freely and when the pressure is on you and you absolutely have to win the game, it becomes difficult.”
Will it come to that? Possible. Doreth is determined: “If Heidelberg wins the MBC, things will look really good, then they will stay in the league.”
Remaining programMBC (A)Alba (A)Ulm (H)Würzburg (A)Tübingen (H)
CHANCES OF MAINTAINING THE CLASS: 50%
Hakro Merlins Crailsheim
Crailsheim is the only team from the bottom third that can play at home three more times on the last five match days. All competitors only have two home games left. And that could be important for survival. Because the magicians are the worst away team in the league, losing 14 of their 15 appearances away from home.
But the form is right: recently there were three wins from five games. Doreth: “I see that they are on the rise. However, they are very dependent on scoring high and throwing good percentages, as was the case recently against Bonn (56% from the field). I’m excited to see whether they can pull this off with the difficult remaining program.”
What are the key games to get to the safe shore? Doreth: “Bamberg at home: This is a little derby, the hut will burn in Crailsheim. In addition to the game in Rostock, this is the game they would have to win to have a chance of staying in.”
RestprogrammUlm (H)Hamburg (A)Bamberg (H)Rostock (A)Alba (H)
CHANCES OF MAINTAINING THE CLASS: 25%
Active for Bayreuth in the BBL until last season, now at Nuremberg and working as a Dyn expert: ex-national player Bastian Doreth (96 international matches)
Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
Tigers Tübingen
The air is thinnest for bottom team Tübingen. The Tigers are both the weakest team at home and the weakest in form in the BBL. At home there were only three wins in 15 games. In the last ten league games there was only one success.
Doreth honestly: “There is relatively little that encourages you. They will probably lose in Munich at the weekend and at the same time Heidelberg or the MBC will have one more win after their direct duel. If the distance to the safe shore becomes too great, it is also extremely difficult psychologically.”
What kind of Tübingen miracle has to happen? “If you want to have another chance, you have to beat Braunschweig, Hamburg and Heidelberg. And even then, the teams have to play for Tübingen,” said Doreth. “That’s why I see the Tigers as having the worst chance of staying in the league – even though I like them a lot.”
Remaining program Bavaria (A) Braunschweig (H) Oldenburg (A) Hamburg (H) Heidelberg (A)
CHANCES OF MAINTAINING THE CLASS: 10%
Conclusion: Everything is still possible for everyone. What is important in the all-important phase of the relegation battle? Doreth: “You need a good mix. On the one hand, people who have a high level of identification with the club. On the other hand, you shouldn’t get too tense either. You always need one or two players who play without a care in the world. The team chemistry has to be right and you have to be able to take on this fight at full speed.”
The remaining Kellerkinder program at a glance
GÖTTINGEN ROSTOCKMBCHeidelbergCrailsheimTübingenBamberg (A)Bonn (A)Heidelberg (H)MBC (A)Ulm (H)Bavaria (A)Oldenburg (H)Ludwigsburg (H)Würzburg (A)Alba (A)Hamburg (A)Braunschweig (H)Vechta (A)Braunschweig (A)Ludwigsburg (H)Ulm (H)Bamberg (H)Oldenburg (A)MBC (H)Crailsheim (H)Göttingen (A)Würzburg (A)Rostock (A)Hamburg (H)Hamburg (A )Bavaria (A)Vechta (A)Tübingen (H)Alba (H)Heidelberg (A)
2024-04-25 16:22:10
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