Analyzing Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Offensive Struggles: A Closer Look

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s bat is cold. No matter what mirror you look at him with, you will find that his statistics do not correspond to the figure of an “all-star” and do not do justice to his contract.

If you head over to his stats page, you’ll be shocked to see that his OPS+ score is 125, which puts him above an average hitter, but far from his own lifetime mark (141).

The strange thing is that his habits do not cause alarmism, maintaining his rate of hard hits when 52.2 percent receive that rating, in addition to there being no concern about his discipline because he strikes out (20.5%) and walks (9.5%). in good proportion.

However, the results do not accompany you in the way you would like. And with his season expanding to 268 appearances, it’s time to explore the possible reasons that make his offense “weak.”

Let’s start with your contacts, a section that does not raise suspicions. Impact the ball with power (92 mph exit speed) and with an ideal angle (10.5 degrees) to achieve air balls. Because of this, he remains within the average, whose percentage of fly balls is 26.2 and lines are 23.9, while the Dominican executes 27.7 and 23.4.

This follows the previous story and is that his practices do not condemn him. He does things that should guide him to a better path or normality. When that happens, it invites you to show attention to what is not superficial, which involves your concentration or balance in the swing.

Percentage of strikeouts and swings depending on the side of the zone. Source: Baseball Savant.

Look at the graphs, plotting Tatis’s strikeouts and swings by side of the strike zone. Clearly, it is disturbing to see his weak performance with high deliveries. You just throw him there and he is practically dominated.

Pitchers study this behavior and locate a considerable number of pitches in those quadrants, receiving indifference on their part. And as that continues to happen, they will increase the dosage.

What does it obey? We will answer it according to what is indicated by its “bat speed”, that is, how fast the center of the bat mallet is moving at the moment in which contact occurs, as well as the distance the swing travels to the point of impact. (swing length).

Swing speed and length by side of the zone. Source: Baseball Savant.

In the graphs, it is shown that the power of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s swing decreases by up to a mile per hour when facing pitches at the top, especially noting that against high and hit balls the decrease is “drastic.”

On the other hand, it shortens the swing against those same pitches. Logic indicates that long swings facilitate greater power although with the risk of increasing swings, while “short” swings promote contact.

For the Dominican, it doesn’t even work to shorten it, since in the areas where he performs that action it is the same one that is inducing his strikeouts.

It is encouraging to see Tatis’ performance in his last seven games, producing 26 total bases for the San Diego Padres and hitting .385. He remains to wait if with this “momentum” he obtains adjustments to his problems.

Statistics and graphs in this article were taken from Baseball Savant.

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2024-06-02 19:37:46
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