Carlos Alcaraz’s Easy Road to Wimbledon Glory: Analysis of the Draw and Potential Matchups

Carlos Alcaraz was lucky in the Wimbledon draw, being paired in the first round with world number 262, Estonian Mark Lajal, and will have a relatively easy path to a hypothetical semi-final, where he could meet Jannik Sinner, avoiding Novak Djokovic until the final. Lajal will come to this match in good form, having gone through the qualifying phase of Wimbledon against three tennis players with higher rankings than him, Passaro, Rocha and Duckworth, but this 21-year-old Estonian, 1.91 m tall, should not be a problem for Alcaraz, who could face Aleksandar Vukic or Sebastian Ofner in the second round and whose first serious test would not be until the third stage, when Frances Tiafoe appears on the horizon. The American, however, has been a shadow of his former self since eliminating Rafael Nadal at the US Open in 2022 and in fact comes to this tournament with many doubts, after injuring his knee following a fall at Queen’s less than two weeks ago.

From there, Alcaraz could face Ugo Humbert in the round of 16. The Frenchman is a good player on grass, with the title in Halle last year as his credentials, but this season he has been disappointing on the surface with defeats in the first rounds of Queen’s and Mallorca. In the quarter-finals there is the allergic to grass Casper Ruud, who is the only player in the top 40 who has not played a tournament on grass this year or the more likely Tommy Paul, champion at Queen’s last week and one of the few who can boast of having a close head-to-head with Alcaraz, whom he has beaten on two occasions. Having lost the status of second seed, by giving up the 500 points of the winner of Queen’s, Alcaraz starts this tournament as the third favourite and that means he will have to face Jannik Sinner, world number one, in a hypothetical semi-final, while avoiding Novak Djokovic until the final.

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Alcaraz will have the privilege of opening the centre court on Monday at 1:30 p.m. local time (2:30 p.m. in Spain) as the reigning champion. Djokovic, after putting his knee problems behind him, will face Vit Kopriva in his debut on Tuesday and has a feasible draw until the quarter-finals, when Alex de Minaur, winner in S’hertogenbosch, and Hubert Hurkacz, one of the best servers on the circuit, appear. For Sinner, the draw has been treacherous and, despite the first round being against Yannick Hanfmann, in the second he could face Matteo Berrettini, finalist in Stuttgart this year and at Wimbledon in 2021, or Marton Fucsovics. In addition, the transalpine could meet Tallon Griekspoor in the third round, who had him on the ropes a week ago in Halle. In the round of 16, he will face a limping Nicolas Jarry or a fading Ben Shelton, and in the quarter-finals Daniil Medvedev. According to the draw, based on the rankings, the quarter-finals would pit Sinner against Daniil Medvedev, Alcaraz against Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev against Andrey Rublev and Djokovic against Hubert Hurkacz.

As for the rest of the Spaniards, Alejandro Davidovich will debut against Sebastian Korda, Pablo Carreño, who has never won a match at Wimbledon and is returning after a serious elbow injury, against Griekspoor, Pedro Martínez, against Paul, Roberto Bautista, against Maximilian Marterer, Roberto Carballés, against Alexander Zverev, and Jaume Munar, against the local Billy Harris. Alejandro Moro, the only Spaniard who passed the qualifying round, will debut against the British Jacob Fearnley. In addition, Andy Murray, still with doubts about whether he will play or not, will have a debut with bitter memories, since he will face the Czech Tomas Machac, against whom he injured his ankle ligaments in the Miami Masters 1,000.

The women’s draw

The Castellón Sara Sorribes will start Wimbledon against the Italian Jasmine Paolini, finalist at Roland Garros this year and seventh favorite in the British tournament. For her part, Paula Badosa will face Karolina Muchova, a Roland Garros finalist in 2023 and who returned to competition this week in Eastbourne after ten months out due to wrist surgery. The Czech and the Spanish have met twice, with a victory for each one. Badosa comes to this Wimbledon after reaching the quarterfinals in Bad Homburg, the best result of her career in a grass tournament. Of the Spanish women, the one who had the worst luck this Friday in the draw was Jessica Bouzas, who passed the qualifying round last year and made her debut in the tournament and who will have to face the current champion, the Czech Marketa, in the first match. Vondrousova.

Cristina Bucsa, who is defending last year’s second round, will face Romania’s Ana Bogdan, while Rebeka Masarova will have to deal with Russia’s Liudmila Samsonova. As for the big favourites for the title, Iga Swiatek, world number one but with a lot to prove on grass, will have a difficult debut against the American Sofia Kenin, winner of the Australian Open in 2020, but who has been on the decline in recent years. Elena Rybakina, winner in 2022, will face Elean Gabriela Ruse, Aryna Sabalenka the American Emina Bektas and Cori Gauff her compatriot Caroline Dolehide. According to the draw, Swiatek would avoid Sabalenka until the final, while the Belarusian has fallen into Gauff’s quadrant, with whom she could meet in the semi-finals.

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2024-06-28 11:01:34
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