THE SIMULATION
The mathematical model simulated the competition 40 thousand times according to different variables. Italy wins at 4.9%
28 giu 2024
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Since the group stage of Euro 2024 has concluded, all we can do is talk about the unbalance of the scoreboard towards the final in Berlin. In the upper part, Spain, Germany, France and Portugal could already face each other in the quarter-finals while – according more to their coat of arms than what we saw on the pitch – in the lower part there are less accredited teams. In this part of the scoreboard there is Italy, but not only that, there is also Southgate’s England who for theOpta Predictor remains the favorite national team to win the final.
The algorithm choose it is a forecasting model to estimate the possibilities of development of a competition, based on statistical and mathematical calculations that take into account many factors including weaknesses and strengths of the opponents, historical series, precedents and performance indices. The competition development is simulated about 40 thousand times determining the percentage probabilities of a result match by match. Despite the subdued group stage, which still ended with the victory of the group undefeated (1 win, 2 draws), theEngland is the favourite national teamwinning date in the final against Spain.
The performance of theItaliainstead, has lowered the chances of a repeat of the European Championship by 0.1%, going from 5% on the eve of the competition to 4.9% after the qualification obtained only in the 98th minute in Group B. And now? Always according to the mathematical model, the obstacle Swiss in the eighth finals they will be overcome (53% vs 47%), but the journey would be destined to end in the quarter-finals against the English. For completeness, reaching the semi-finals is estimated at 23%, the final at 12.8%.
According to Opta Predictor these are the Round of 16 percentages and the development of the competition:
2024-06-28 20:07:49
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