Euro 2024 Will Austria benefit? Which side of the tournament tree is easier to fill
Thanks to the surprising group victory, Austria is seeded in the top half of the tournament tree. This could be an advantage as the European Championship progresses.
© Andreas Gora / DPA
The preliminary round of the 2024 European Championship ended with four matches on Wednesday, and the teams for the round of 16 have been determined. It turns out that the respective halves of the tournament tree could not be more different.
No, it couldn’t be much harder for the hosts at the European Championship. While Germany was quite lucky to qualify for the European Championship round of 16 as group winners on Sunday, the much harder half of the tournament tree now awaits Julian Nagelsmann’s team. Denmark, the 2021 European Championship semi-finalist, will kick things off on Saturday, but they have not been very convincing so far. But the other teams are also tough: Later on, the Germans could face the so far convincing Spain (quarter-finals) as well as France with superstar Kylian Mbappé, Belgium with playmaker Kevin De Bruyne or Portugal with veteran Cristiano Ronaldo (semi-finals). Four of the five top favorites These teams will play in the knockout round in the lower tournament tree.
The top half of the tournament tree looks much easier, however, with only top favorite England and reigning European champion Italy playing in it, but so far they have not lived up to expectations. The performances of Switzerland, who will face Italy in the round of 16, and Austria, on the other hand, were much more convincing.
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The Austrians could be the main beneficiaries, as they will play against Turkey in the round of 16 and will also face an apparently easier opponent in a possible quarter-final. They could only cross paths with Italy or England in the semi-final. It is the reward for a surprising victory in Group D, in which Ralf Rangnick’s team left France, the Netherlands and Poland behind.
Two other third-placed teams, Slovakia and Georgia, qualified on Wednesday evening – much to the chagrin of the Hungarians. Their German opponents had been hoping to advance since Sunday, but it was only late on Wednesday evening that it became clear that they would be eliminated from the tournament. (Read more about the controversial rule for the third-placed teams here)
At the European Championships there is often a weaker tournament tree
A look at the history of the European Championship shows that there has always been a stronger and a weaker tournament tree. At the 2016 European Championship, the first European Championship with a round of 16, Portugal seized the opportunity. While France, England, Germany, Italy and Spain eliminated each other in the lower tournament tree, Portugal faced Croatia, Poland and Wales in the upper tree. It was only in the final that a big caliber team, France, awaited them, who the Portuguese defeated 1-0 in extra time to become European champions for the first time.
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The 2021 European Championship was completely different – and not just because it was held during the corona pandemic. Here, too, the upper tournament tree was the supposedly easier one. The eventual finalist England faced a modest German team in the round of 16, followed by Ukraine in the quarter-finals and Denmark in the semi-finals. The lower tree, on the other hand, was full of favorites with Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, the then reigning world champions France and runners-up Croatia. Italy narrowly beat Austria, Belgium and Spain and defeated England in the final on penalties.
Editor’s note: This article was updated after the preliminary round
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