Vladimir Guerrero Jr: A Journey of Redemption and Growth in 2024

Washington DC.─ We are on a journey with an unknown destination, learning to choose better paths, the result of stumbling blocks that must necessarily dictate the steps to follow so as not to stop facing the same obstacle. Putting learning into practice, like salvation, is individual. That is life, the constant execution of activities, repetitive and different at the same time.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s career has been a roller coaster. Carrying the weight of the father figure before reaching an agreement as a professional baseball player with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2015, exceeding expectations that were already ambitious in the Minor Leagues since 2016 and especially in 2018, in the eye of public criticism for not taking that performance to MLB in the immediate term in 2019, lifting the holy grail with a collection offensive performance in 2021 and eventually slowing his production in the following two seasons.

To the cocktail we add statements that he has offered regarding rejecting the hypothetical case of playing with the New York Yankees, controversy in LIDOM for wanting to debut with his club, Leones del Esído, when the team was already eliminated from the regular phase and the result is a complex, but not strange, case of the classic cover player who has had to face two challenges in building his legacy.

At 25 years of age, the 2024 season has been special for the Dominican. A campaign that represents growth at a professional level in the way he expresses his emotions when offering statements to the press. The tournament where his name has been mentioned the most in relation to possible transactions that would culminate his stay in Toronto. The worst first month of the season of his career, this happening simultaneously with the comments of how the Blue Jays are seeing their competitive window expire with a generation of young players who could perhaps be traded before the trade deadline, in
seeks to cement the subsequent generation.

Guerrero Jr. finished the first month (March/April) of this tournament with an OPS of .678, the worst in his career by more than one hundred thousandths. Even with the poor offensive performance that MLB is experiencing, that offensive worksheet of “Vladdy Jr” was below average, slightly, yes, just 4%, however, disappointing for a hitter of his caliber.

The month of May was not only a month of redemption for Vladimir, but also one of re-establishing a record that had not happened in two years: closing a month with an OPS above .900.

Decreasing the total number of strikeouts (from 28 to 16) to the point that he finished the period equaling the number of walks, that was Guerrero Jr.’s trademark, a hitter with better discipline at the plate, which in the end showed a hitter making better contacts, not a home run hitter, since he only hit two, but he also added seven doubles and 35 hits in general to, in addition to those 16 walks, finish with an OPS of .919, something that had not happened since June 2022, when based on nine home runs he also surpassed the .900 OPS barrier in one month.

He raised his slugging percentage in May to .479, a clear improvement on the unusual .347 he recorded in March/April. In June the improvement continued, displaying a slugging percentage of .547.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. slugging percentage for each month of 2024. Source: Baseball Savant.

The power has always been there, belonging to the elite in the power of their hits, measured in miles per hour. Even the average miles per hour of his hits (94 MPH exit velocity average) has reached a place only surpassed by the 95.1 miles per hour of 2021, the year of his golden season. His swing speed belongs in the top 15 club in MLB, generating 75.5 miles per hour with his swing, on average.

Guerrero Jr.’s ability to produce power in his hits places him among the elite of MLB. For each contact he makes, he is the sixth batter who generates the most Blasts, as you can see in the image below.

Leaders in Blast in MLB. Source: Baseball Savant

What is Blast?

First it is necessary to understand the concept of Square-Up, which is when a batter generates a swing and the ball travels at least 80% of the estimated speed, taking into account factors such as the pitch speed, the swing speed of the hitter and estimated top speed. These swings do not necessarily have to be the fastest, since the leader in this department, Luis Arráez, does not have an elite swing speed.

The blast requires a minimum of speed generated by the swing and that is when players who make a lot of contact, but not with as much power, like Arráez, are discarded from the leaders.

In conclusion, a blast is a swing where the batter generates great speed in his swing and in turn, causes the ball to travel at an elite speed. This is the simplest way I could find to explain it.

I tried not to use numbers to better focus my reading friends on the concept, not on how it is calculated, something that can be overwhelming and divert the idea of ​​the explanation.

These hits are important because of the results they produce, the best in MLB on average. Think of the blast as a more detailed measure of the performance of a hit than the barrel.

What has changed for the better with Vladimir?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. improved his discipline in the batter’s box, reducing the number of swings against a league that threw fewer pitches in the zone during the fifth month of May. The better he recognizes the pitches, the fewer swings at blanks, no matter where they throw to him, but especially in territory outside the strike zone, those pitches that if you let them pass you get balls, placing the pitcher in a scenario where he must come “through the zone” to avoid losing the batter due to walks and that’s where Vladdy has been, punishing those pitches.

Runs added by plate discipline by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Source: Baseball Savant.

The interpretation of this image is simple. The area is divided into four squares:

1- The heart of the strike zone, the area where Guerrero has contributed six runs due to the selection he makes in the batter’s box, whether swinging or taking the pitch.

2- The shadow, which includes the edges of the strike zone and the outside, which is outside the strike zone, but with good “mascoting” or framing by the catcher, can become a strike if the batter let the launch pass. It is the area where Vladdy has performed poorly, costing five races.

3- The area where a pitch is pursued, or chase, in English, is that area that is outside the strike zone without discussion or where high-frequency breaking pitches usually end their trajectory. Guerrero Jr. has made good decisions with his swing in that area.

4- The waste zone, pitches that the batter manages to identify earlier that they are “clear ball” and decide not to swing.

In summary, Vladimir has contributed 13 runs with his discipline at the plate, while remaining aggressive when he identifies a pitch to punish. The procedure to calculate this number will be somewhat complex and will divert the central idea of ​​the article, so we will leave it for another installment.

In June, with the confidence that comes from a stellar May, his approach has been more aggressive, trying to create a balance where what he gives up through aggression is noticeably less than the results of his power contacts. In addition, his increase in Guerrero swings, especially in the strike zone, is due to the fact that he is receiving more pitches in that area. In fact, making the caveat that the season is still underway and the percentage can change, this is the season in which more pitches are being thrown in the strike zone to Vladimir in his career.

Percentage of swings Vladimir Guerrero Jr. takes each month in 2024. Source: Baseball Savant.

Today, on the 28th, we can say that his June has been a successful month, where the home runs are finally appearing. With an OPS of .884, six home runs, 17 RBIs, 14 runs scored, only 14 strikeouts and still two more days before the end of the month, Guerrero Jr.’s performance is that of a stellar, similar to his 2021 campaign.

Is this the best version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. we’ve seen?

I think so, because I am appreciating his performance in sports and his growth in his professional ethics when dealing with the media.

There is half a season left to know if he will surpass the professional performance he demonstrated in 2021, but even if he does not achieve that goal and his numbers are close to it, my opinion is that the added value of his maturity will result in a player and human being with great potential prior to what would be his last season before reaching free agency.

2024-06-28 22:46:58
#version #Vladimir #Guerrero