The most contested eighth-finals? There is no doubt: Switzerland-Italy first, then France-Belgium and Austria-Turkey. Challenges that will be played on the balance or on the episode that can change the game, in regulation time and in extra time before the possible penalties: in or out, there are no more lifelines like Zaccagni’s goal for the Azzurri, who in the end without that feat would have gone out of the group stage as one of the worst third-placed teams. The most predictable eighth-finals? Spain-Georgia, Portugal-Slovenia and England-Slovakia, all matches that according to the bookies of the main betting sites place the passage to the quarter-finals of the home teams at odds that oscillate between 1.10 and 1.25.
I BOOKIES
But let’s see match by match what the percentages of entry to the next round could be, starting from Switzerland-Italy, one of the most balanced round of 16 of the European Championships. The Swiss advanced with 5 points and never lost in their group, indeed they stopped Germany until injury time, when Fullkrug equalized. The precedents between September and November 2021 are terrible for Italy: two draws and two missed penalties with Mancini forced to face Macedonia in the play-offs. We all know how it ended. Better to think about the 3-0 in the second match of the European Championship group that we then won in the final against England: 55% chance for Italy, on trust, and 45% for Switzerland.
In the second round of 16 tomorrow night, Germany, 7 points at the start, will face Denmark, who are never an easy opponent and can always pull a trick out of the hat: but eliminating the hosts is really a feat, which is why we give 75% chances for Nagelsmann and 25% for Eriksen. The scoreboard, in the meantime, can already tell us that Germany, in a possible final, will not be able to face Spain and France, who are on their side. Indeed, the Red Furies would be the next rivals of the Germans already in the quarterfinals if they send home Georgia and Kvara, heroic against Ronaldo and the ten reserves of Portugal. For the bookies, the passage of Spain is worth 1.10 and so we say 90% against 10% percent of the revelation team.
England is worth a little more as they will face another team that was fished out among the best third-placed teams: Slovakia, still 4 points in the group like Italy. Southgate, in the crosshairs of criticism, has continued without playing attractive football. Indeed, people like Bellingham, Foden, Saka and Kane, great protagonists with their club teams, seem like stand-ins at the European Championships: if they light up, it is possible that they will take revenge for the final they lost to us in 2021. Let’s say that we can place the passage of the English at 80% and that of the Slovakians at 20%.
IL BIG MATCH
Here is France-Belgium, which is worth a semifinal in terms of values on the field: Mbappé with the mask and broken nose against Lukaku, Antonio Conte’s official wish, still looking for his first valid goal. Three of them were disallowed for a few centimeters of his body being offside. Here we are really on the edge of balance and never like in this eighth can the feat of a champion be decisive: not even the national teams of Deschamps and Tedesco are enchanting, on the contrary. We are at 55% percent in favor of the French and 45% for Belgium, the same evaluations of Switzerland Italy that cannot be used for Portugal-Slovenia: with all the starters rested against Georgia and a Ronaldo more relaxed than Wednesday night, coach Martinez can boast a 75% percent chance against the 25% of his rivals.
It closes on July 2 with Romania-Holland: the former arrived in the lead, the Orange only third. The situation seems to be reversed but we give 65% to Koeman’s team and 35% to the opponents. Austria-Turkey is the least predictable eighth and for this reason we say 49% against 51% in favor of Montella, who will face it without Calhanoglu and these days that’s not a small amount.
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1970-01-01 00:00:00
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