Spain has finished the group stage as first classified and awaits an opponent in the round of 16. We once again turn to our statistical model to try to answer this question: Who will Luis de la Fuente’s team play against?
Turkey, from group F, is the team that crosses the most with Spain in our model simulations (28%), but paradoxically it is most likely that the team’s rival is from another group. Behind the Ottoman team there are three teams from group E: Slovakia (24%), Ukraine (23%) and Romania (11%).
Slovakia and Romania would be the most affordable rivals, according to EL PAÍS’ ranking, which takes into account the strength of the team – measured with an Elo method – and the value of its players. Slovaks and Romanians have 45 points in this classification, far from Spain’s 80. Türkiye has 54 points and Ukraine, with valuable players like Dovbyk or Mudryk, has 64.
In the previous table, Turkey, from group F, appears as the team with the most options, followed by three teams from group E. This is explained by UEFA’s selection method for the matches, which foresees different matchups depending on which third parties qualify. . For our model, the most likely thing after yesterday’s matches is that the third parties from groups A, C, D and E (63%) or those from C, D, E and F (32%) advance to the round of 16. In the first case, Spain’s rival would leave group E; in the second, from F.
This explains the paradox that we mentioned before. The model sees it as more likely that Spain’s rival will be from group E, but since in this group right now all the teams are tied, the probabilities of Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania and Belgium are distributed.
What options does each team have to be in the round of 16?
With four games remaining, five of the teams that will play in the round of 16 are still to be determined. In the following charts you can see what probability each team has of reaching the next round according to the model.
The main doubts are who will go directly into groups E and F, where Portugal is already first, and who will be the four best third parties. With the Netherlands and Slovenia already qualified, Hungary (group A) awaits the outcome of today’s matches.
Which teams are now the favorites of the tournament?
With four games remaining in the group stage, our model has changed its preferences slightly. France’s draw yesterday left the Blues in second place in their group and alters their path to the final. They started the tournament with a 20% chance of winning and now they have 18%. England has benefited from this and, with a more benign situation, has gone from 18% to 20%.
And how is the Copa América going?
Last week we also launched a prediction model for the American tournament. The methodology is essentially the same, but with only 16 teams competing in the tournament. After the first day, Argentina is confirmed as favorite: it started the tournament with a 34% chance of winning and now has 39%. Brazil has fallen back in its expectations after its 0-0 draw against Bolivia and has gone from 27% to 21%.
CHOOSE PREDICTION DATE:
PROBABILITY OF REACHING EACH PHASE AND WINNING THE TOURNAMENT
All our predictions will be updated every day, both for the Euro Cup and the Copa America. In addition, you can read and share both models in English, here and here.
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2024-06-26 09:30:49
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