Carlos Alcaraz: The Next Tennis Legend in the Making?

Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. These three legends are the figureheads of tennis.

Carlos Alcaraz’s second Wimbledon triumph against Djokovic marked the beginning of a changing of the guard. The 21-year-old Spaniard won his fourth Grand Slam title at the grass court classic. In the final, he didn’t give the 37-year-old Serb a chance.

The mentality monster from Belgrade is the record holder with 24 Grand Slam titles, Nadal holds 22. Federer, who retired in 2022, has 20 on his resume. The trio has pulverized the former record of Pete Sampras (14). Djokovic, Nadal and Federer set numbers that were considered unattainable.

But is this reality? Carlos Alcaraz is setting new standards at the age of 21.

How far can he go? Can he really reach the same level as the three legends and even surpass Djokovic’s record?

LAOLA1 ventures a forecast and draws a comparison.

Major title at the age of 21

Carlos Alcaraz Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal Roger Federer Grand Slam titles 4 1 3 1 Masters titles 5 4 9 1 Total 9 5 12 2

The number of Grand Slam victories and Masters titles were used as parameters. The table illustrates the achievements that Alcaraz, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer achieved after their respective Wimbledon tournaments at the age of 21.

Alcaraz is a pioneer in the Grand Slams with four titles. When he won his first title in 2022 (US Open), he was just 19 years and 129 days old. Only Nadal was younger when he won the French Open in 2005 (19 years and three days). In addition, the man from Murcia became the youngest number one of all time after his US Open victory.

It is remarkable that Alcaraz is almost unbeatable in finals. Only Djokovic managed to beat him in a Masters final at the crazy 2023 final in Cincinnati. The Spaniard’s record in Grand Slam finals is 4-0.

The steep path to the top

In February 2020, Alcaraz played his first match at ATP level at the Rio Open. A year later, he made his Grand Slam debut at the Australian Open. In May 2021, he was in the top 100 of the world rankings, and in July he won his first ATP title in Umag. The developments took their course. After being knocked out in the semifinals in Vienna, he won the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan. Alcaraz finished 2021 in 32nd place.

In 2022, the Spaniard had finally arrived in the tennis elite. In Miami, he won his first Masters tournament. After his Barcelona triumph, he moved into the top 10. In Madrid, he beat Nadal, Djokovic and Zverev on his way to the title.

Finally, at the US Open, he made his first Grand Slam final. He had to go the full distance of five sets three times in a row. In the quarterfinals against Sinner, he fended off a match point. In the final against Ruud, he realized his Grand Slam dream and also became the new number one in the world.

These players made the jump to ATP number 1

In 2023, in addition to his 100th singles victory on the ATP Tour, he also celebrated the Masters title in Indian Wells. At Wimbledon, he finally won his second Grand Slam title. In 2024, he defended the title in Indian Wells. In addition, there were Grand Slam successes at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

These numbers need to be achieved

Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal Roger Federer Grand Slam titles 24 22 20 Masters titles 40 36 28 Total 64 58 48

For more than twenty years, there was no getting past Djokovic, Nadal and Federer. Between 2003 and 2024, 86 Grand Slams were held. Of these, 66 went to one of this legendary trio alone. That corresponds to a rate of over 75 percent – meaning that in every fourth tournament, the winner was not Djokovic, Nadal or Federer.

The competition was glorious with Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Juan Martin del Potro, Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev etc. The three legends were constantly pushed by their competitors, and they also pushed themselves to peak performances against each other.

Now Alcaraz could seize the opportunity. He is currently competing with Djokovic, who seems to be reaching his peak. The injury-prone Nadal is planning to end his career in 2024. With Jannik Sinner, he feels he has a competitor in his age group who will stand up to him in the long term. In addition, there are two other stars, Alexander Zverev and Medvedev, who could hurt the Spaniard on a good day.

Behind them, it gets thin. Alex de Minaur, Hubert Hurkacz, Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune – a selection of players who can only pose a threat to Alcaraz when they are at their best. And maintaining such form, especially in a Grand Slam tournament over five sets, seems more than difficult given the Spaniard’s development.

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If Alcaraz continues like this…

In his fourth year on the professional tour, he has 15 career titles. In addition, he has four Challenger titles and won the Next Generation ATP Finals. Since 2022, Alcaraz has won at least one Grand Slam per year.

If the Spaniard stays injury-free and keeps his performance consistent, Djokovic’s record could one day be shaken.

Carlos Alcaraz Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal Roger Federer Grand Slam appearances 14 75 68 81 Titles 4 24 22 20 Average 1.14 1.28 1.29 0.99

Before the facts speak, mathematics shows us how far Alcaraz can actually go. Since we can’t look into a crystal ball, this calculation at least gives us a rough answer. The formula for this is quite simple.

First, the average number of Grand Slam titles per year was calculated. To do this, the respective career participations were divided by the number of Grand Slams in a year (4).

The result is the guideline for calculating the average number of Grand Slam titles. To do this, you take the number of titles and divide it by the result from the first calculation.

Let us take Roger Federer as an example, who is the only one from the selection who is no longer active:

81 participations / 4 Grand Slams = 20.25

20 titles / 20.25 = 0.99 titles per year

Djokovic and Nadal are nearing the end of their careers. Alcaraz still has many years ahead of him. How many is unknown. Therefore, we have taken the years in which the trio participated in Grand Slams and calculated an average.

Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal Roger Federer Grand Slam years 20 22 23 expected Alcaraz years Ø 21.67 – 4 = 17.67

17,67 * 1,14 = 20,14 ≈ 20 Grand Slams

Subtracting four from the average calculation corresponds to the number of Grand Slam years that Alcaraz has already played. This leaves a value of 17.67, which means that the Spaniard can be expected to stay on the tour for another 17 to 18 years. Accordingly, he would retire at the age of 38 or 39.

If you multiply his Grand Slam average (1.14) by the expected years, you get 20.14. Mathematically, this means that Alcaraz will win 20 more Grand Slams, rounded down.

This means that he has a total of 24 titles and would thus be equal to Djokovic.

Of course, this cannot be said in general terms, the values ​​will vary over time. It can go in either direction. The trend is currently pointing upwards.

At 21 years old, Alcaraz is already so experienced that we can expect him to win several more Grand Slam titles. The right-hander’s playing style is a mixture of Djokovic’s nerves, Nadal’s power and Federer’s elegance – a fact that should scare the competition.

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2024-07-17 09:00:58
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