Britain is facing a change of government with a clear majority for the Labour Party. According to the first forecast, the previous Labour opposition achieved a majority of up to 410 seats in the general election on Thursday; the Conservatives were only able to win around 130 seats, thus losing around 240 of their seats. According to the forecast, Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform Party won 13 seats – more than polls had led him to expect.
The Liberal Democrats also had success; they were able to increase their number of seats in the House of Commons to around 60, almost fivefold. According to the forecast, the Scottish Nationalists lost dramatically, retaining ten of their almost 50 seats.
The forecast is based on a post-election survey conducted by the polling company Ipsos on behalf of the BBC and British private broadcasters in selected representative constituencies. Projections that predict the parties’ nationwide vote share are only of limited use in the British electoral system, as the majority in each of the 650 constituencies decides which candidate wins the seat in question.
The Conservatives’ defeat had been expected in recent weeks. At the end of May, Prime Minister Sunak surprisingly set July 4 as the date for the election, even though the legislative period could normally have lasted until the end of the year. The hope that the unexpected advance would put his own party on the offensive, which had been far behind the Labour Party in the polls for years, was not fulfilled.
Instead, a series of mishaps generated further negative headlines, such as the fact that Sunak left the commemorations of the Allied landings in Normandy early to attend a television appointment or that two of Sunak’s close confidants placed bets on the election date the day before the election date was announced.
Boris Johnson should limit the damage to the Conservatives
In the final weeks of the election campaign, the Conservatives no longer held out the prospect of their own victory, but simply warned against the Labour Party being too successful. At his last campaign event, Sunak said that voters had the power to “prevent an uncontrolled Labour government”.
The former leader of the Conservatives even asked his old rival and predecessor Boris Johnson to make a public appearance. Johnson alluded to the feud with Sunak by saying that the differences within the Conservatives were “completely insignificant compared to the disaster that awaits us if the polls are correct”.
Ministers from Sunak’s cabinet also joined in the chorus of warnings. The current defence minister, Grant Shapps, said on election day that a Labour victory would be “a threat to NATO” because Labour had not confirmed the Conservatives’ pledge to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of economic output by 2030.
New government faces important foreign policy deadlines
Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is expected to be called upon by King Charles III to form a new government later on Friday, said on the eve of polling day that the British people deserve a government that meets their expectations for the future. Starmer promised that if he wins the election he would hit the ground running. Parliament’s summer recess, which normally begins in mid-July, is expected to be postponed until the end of the month.
The new Prime Minister has two important foreign policy appointments in the next few weeks. Firstly, he will attend the NATO summit in Washington next week. Then on 18 July he will host the heads of state and government of the European Political Community, a meeting attended by all EU states, the EU accession candidates and other European countries.
Starmer said it was “very important to readjust Britain’s role in the world”. International respect for Britain has waned, “we are no longer the engine of change that we should have been around the world in recent years”.
