Rodrigo Garro has managed a shot on target in eight of his last nine games
Our football props column heads back to Brazil on Sunday where a 9/2 Bet Builder double looks a good value play…
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Good ref and two good teams for cards
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Garro has landed 1+ SOT in 8 of his last 9
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Back Bet Builder double at around 9/2
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Atletico Mineiro vs CorinthiansSunday 28 July, 23:00
As we await the return of the Premier League and EFL, we’ve been looking at the games in Brazil quite a bit of late in this column – but for good reason.
There is a plethora of props markets available for these Serie A matches and there are a couple worth highlighting in this contest.
Leg 1: Over 6.5 cards
First of all, it looks worth taking a chance on a high card count.
These two sides are in the top seven in the league when it comes to bookings, while Corinthians are the division’s most-fouled side.
We’ve also got a card-happy referee in Bruno Arleu de Araujo, one who has averaged 6.5 yellows across his eight Serie A games this season, also showing three reds.
If that’s too small a sample for you, those figures are pretty close to those he managed across the entire 2023 season when Arleu de Araujo averaged 6.75 yellows per game.
Look a little closer and you see several high make-ups on the official’s card count, plus a few low ones.
With this in mind – and the teams involved – I think it’s worth chancing over 6.5 cards which is offered at 9/5.
It’s actually landed in six of Arleu de Araujo’s 12 domestic games this season so we look to be getting some value here.
Leg 2: Rodrigo Garro 1+ shot on target
I’m going to double that up with one in the shots markets – Rodrigo Garro to have 1+ shot on target.
The Corinthians man has been landing this bet with regularity. He’s now rewarded his backers in this market in eight of his last nine games, plus 10 of his last 12.
OK, Atletico’s defence is one of the stronger ones in terms of conceding shots but, even so, I’m not sure we should be getting odds-against about something that’s happened so often.
For the record, he’s managed a shot on target against leaders Botafogo and third-placed Palmeiras, the reigning champions, already this season.
The double pays around 9/2. Worth a try.
Recommended bets
Back over 6.5 cards and Rodrigo Garro 1+ shot on target @ 9/2
Column P/L 2024/25
Staked: 12pts Returned: 14.4pts P/L: +2.4pts
2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts
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2024-07-28 09:09:22
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