Image credit: © KEVIN R. WEXLER/NORTHJERSEY.COM / USA TODAY NETWORK
Translated by Fernando Battaglini
In this series, we look at key MLB trends in run scoring, position player pitching, injuries, stolen bases and pace of play. It’s a month-by-month examination to isolate seasonal trends. Here’s April’s report. Here’s May.
Scoring runs
The offense as a whole took a hit in May. After 4.38 runs were scored per game in April (traditionally the lowest-scoring month of the year), runs fell to 4.24 per game in May. The offense rebounded somewhat in June, to 4.47 runs per game. Since the 30-team era began in 1998 (excluding 2020), 26 Junes have been played. Runs per game in June 2024 rank below average, at 18th. The 4.47 runs per game was the fewest for the month since 4.33 in June 2018.
But not all of those races were the same.
Pitchers allowed 3,482 runs in 6,991 2/3 innings pitched through the first nine innings of June games. But look at the two right-hand columns of the table. Things changed dramatically with zombie runners: 91 runs in 73 1/3 innings. And the change was even more dramatic, but in a different way, when position players took the mound. There were 16 position player pitching appearances in the month, covering 16 innings, and they allowed just three runs. For the second straight month and so far this season, fewer runs were scored in innings in which position players took the mound (7.84 through June 30) than in innings that began with a zombie runner on second (9.79).
But given the stinginess of position pitchers, scoring in June…
…it doesn’t really change if you take out the zombie running backs and pitching position players.
While June’s runs per game ranked 18th out of 26 in the 30-team era, it ranks 17th when playing real baseball with real pitchers.
Here’s the breakdown since the implementation of the universal hitter.
Pitching Position Players
Before last season, MLB changed the rules regarding position players such as pitchers. Trailing teams can use a position player only when they are down by eight or more runs; the previous limit was six. Leading teams can use a position player only in the ninth inning, and only when they are up by 10 or more runs; there was no limit before. (There were, and still are, no limits on the use of position players in extra innings.)
This was supposed to reduce the use of position players as pitchers. For the second month in a row, MLB’s initiative is working. There were fewer position players pitching in June 2024 than in June 2023, 2022 and 2021.
The headline about position players as pitchers, though, wasn’t the drop from 23 in 2022 to 18 in 2023 and 16 in 2024. It’s how well those players performed. Position players allowed a .250/.343/.350 batting line to the 70 batters they faced in June. Actual pitchers allowed a 28-point higher OPS: .246/.313/.407. Zach McKinstry appeared on June 5 and 7, retiring all five batters he faced. In 15 appearances during the month of May 18-June 17, position players pitched 15 innings, allowing just 15 baserunners (seven walks, six singles, one double, one hit) and no runs.
Have position players figured out how to pitch? Well, in the last four position player appearances of the month, Jose Trevino, Tucker Barnhart, Emmanuel Rivera, and Dominic Smith combined to allow 10 hits (seven singles, one double, and one homer), one walk, and three runs in four innings. On the other hand, they still allowed fewer runs per inning than pitchers did in extra innings during the month!
Injuries
In April, there were a rash of ulnar collateral ligament injuries that made it seem like every good pitcher was going to need Tommy John surgery. But as Derek Rhoads and I observed, injuries tapered off in May. Normally, the number of players on the disabled list rises steadily through May, but it dropped this year. Did the health improvement continue in June? This chart shows the number of players placed on the disabled list from June 2 to July 1 — the period when players who were injured in June landed on the ill-fated list.
The decline continued. However, not all Junes are the same. Only 780 games were played in June 2023, compared to 808 in June 2019 and 2022. This year, 800 were played. Here’s how the injuries occurred per game.
Through the end of June, there have been fewer injuries per game played during the season (i.e., excluding spring training) in the six years we’ve looked at it. It may not seem like it, but it’s true.
Running the Bases
With the pitch-clock-adjacent disconnect rule implemented last season, stolen bases rose sharply. But so did the stolen base success rate, well above the break-even point. That led people, including myself, to expect even more stolen bases in 2024, with lower risk aversion bringing the success rate back to the cost/benefit balance of roughly 75%.
That was the case in April. Stolen bases per game were at their highest level since April 1999, with a modestly low success rate. Exactly the same thing happened in May. However, in June it didn’t work.
Stolen bases per game were down in June compared to June 2023, between 0.74 and 0.69 — still the highest level since 1999, but the first time since the rule change that monthly stolen bases year-over-year weren’t up. And the success rate fell from 78.7% to 77.2%. That’s still the second-best success rate ever in June, but it may be that pitchers and catchers are figuring things out.
Game time
Perhaps the most interesting finding from this series last year is that while the pitch clock significantly reduced game times in 2023, the year-over-year reduction slowed over the course of the season. Nine-inning games (those in which the home team batted in the ninth inning) were nearly 31 minutes faster in April 2023 compared to April 2022. The year-over-year time savings decreased in each subsequent month: 28 minutes in May, 27 in June, 25 in July, 22 in August, and 18 in September.
MLB was apparently aware of this. In 2024, the time between pitches with runners on base will be limited to 18 seconds, up from 20 seconds last year. What is winning so far this year: MLB’s efforts to further limit game length, or players’ efforts to lengthen it?
In April of this year, games were almost exactly as long as they were in April of last year. However, in May, the release clock showed additional savings compared to 2023. And it happened in June, too.
Nine-inning games in which the home team batted in the ninth inning lasted, on average, 2:40. Nine-inning games in which the home team did not bat in the ninth lasted, on average, 2:31. Each of those numbers is a minute slower than in May, when we had the lowest per-game averages since the implementation of the pitch clock. But compared to June 2023, nine-inning games were about a minute and a half slower, and 8.5-inning games were nearly four minutes shorter. Sure, fewer runs this year compared to last year helps. But game times aren’t increasing.
Thanks to Derek Rhoads for the injury data.
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2024-07-05 12:14:16
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