The fantasy baseball season is more than half over. There is still time to reduce the deficit if they play from behind and those in head-to-head format could advance into the playoffs with the right moves. Here are some of the questions that were in the mailbag.
Can you cut Zach Eflin in a 10-team league? He was just so average. I know the answer is probably that I have to shop around. —Ben W.
Frustration leads to rude reaction. Eflin had high expectations based on where he was drafted and last season. He wasn’t huge, but he wasn’t terrible either. If you drafted Eflin expecting last season’s stats, then this was a disappointment. Last year, the Rays right-hander had a 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 26.5% strikeouts and 1.9% walks. The strikeout rate was a career-high last season, and based on this season, it looks like it will be that way. He hasn’t been able to generate as many hits and misses on his four-seamer and sweeper. Eflin has a 3.30 xERA and a good WHIP. If you didn’t draft Eflin in the early rounds, the disappointment wouldn’t be as great. Eflin has struck out 19 in his last 18.2 innings. The curveball has looked better in that span. Be patient with Eflin until you realize he’s overworked, but he could be solid in the second half.
What Dylan can we expect in the second half? – Cristóbal O.
The stoppage caused his draft value to change dramatically when he was traded from the White Sox to San Diego. It was a better team environment and a more pitcher-friendly home park. The first month was fantastic. May and June weren’t as great, mostly due to the increase in home runs. Strikeouts have always been there and will continue to be numerous. Stop has a 31.3% strikeout rate and sits in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage and 94th percentile in strikeout percentage. Walks have always been an issue for Stop, and he’s cut his walk rate from over 10% over the past two seasons to 7.5%. When hitters break contact, they do it well. He’s in the ninth percentile at barrel level. The underlying numbers aren’t that bad overall, but he just had a great season. There will be inconsistency. He’ll get off to a dominant start that will be negated by games that hit him hard. I would change him because most people consider him a great pitcher.
What to do with Oneil Cruz? Is there anything pointing to a breakup in the future or is it just who he is? The roller coaster is very annoying. -Jeremy B.
Tools, talent, and highlights make Cruz better than he is. He’s 6-foot-7 and can hit the ball far. Sadly, this doesn’t happen often. Cruz’s problem is a lack of contact and not getting to fly. He has a 32.7% strikeout rate, a 36.3% fly ball rate, and a 45.1% ground ball rate. Cruz is in the 98th percentile in barrel velocity, 96th percentile in hard hit velocity, and 99th percentile in average exit velocity. While that’s great, Cruz is in the fourth percentile in strikeout rate, sixth in strikeout rate, and 17th percentile in chase rate. There will be peaks and valleys until Cruz makes some changes.
AL Only: How would you rate my starting pitchers over the season? Looking to trade one (less value) for savings or a bargain. Cole Ragans or Logan Gilbert? Taj Bradley or Bailey Ober? Cutter Crawford or Spencer Arrigetti? -Barry F.
For the first pair, I prefer Gilbert. The important thing to remember when making trades is what needs to be improved. We all want to keep the best player, but the other team has to get what they need. If the market prefers Gilbert and he gives you the piece you need, don’t hesitate. Gilbert and Ragans are close. The difference is Gilbert’s .88 WHIP. He had a 4.9% and 4.7% walk rate last season. He’s one of the few pitchers who is all but guaranteed to go six innings, and he’s pitched at least seven innings on seven occasions. Ragans gets hit more, but has a 1.17 WHIP. Ragans has 40 innings in 2022, 96 last season and 102.2 innings this season.
Ober and Bradley are close, and both are susceptible to home runs. Ober takes a slight edge throughout. Bradley can bring you back even more after his latest stretch. He has at least eight hits in three of his last four games, including 11 in two of those starts. Bradley has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts; I like that a lot. Ober allowed eight hits and nine runs in 1.2 innings in his first start of the season, but did well to lower his ERA to 4.30 with a 1.09 WHIP. If a trading partner prefers Ober, don’t let that interfere with your business.
While Crawford has struggled of late, he’s my preferred pick over Arrigetti. Crawford has good numbers for the season, but runs have hurt him in his last four starts (eight allowed). Arrighetti is coming off a 10-hit game against the Rockies over seven scoreless innings, but he’s wildly inconsistent and his 11.8% walk rate will be a problem against better teams. Give me Crawford.
In a mixed 5×5 roto league with 5 outs and 12 teams, is it time to move on from Daulton Varshaw? -Greg R.
I feel your pain for Varsha. I drafted him in my top two dollar leagues because he was cheaper than last season because he no longer has the ability to catch, but still offered 20-20 potential. One issue that hasn’t changed is batting average, and it’s worse than the previous two seasons. After hitting .235 and .220 in 2022 and 2023, Varshaw is hitting .197 in 77 games. Varsho has a career .234 batting average (BABIP) and .262 batting average. He has a career-high 57.4% slugging percentage, leading to a low BABIP. His xBA is .165, so he wasn’t unlucky. His strikeout rate is a career-low 30.6%, and he ranks in the top third percentile in exit velocity. The scoring stats weren’t bad considering Toronto’s offensive struggles: 41 runs, 11 homers, 35 RBIs and eight stolen bases. As bad as the average was, Varshaw was able to finish with 20 homers and 15 stolen bases. He’s a top-50 defender, which also highlights the lack of good players at the position. It’s easier to get on a roll if you’re in a head-to-head league and hitting for average. It’s easy to say skip Warsaw, but as always, it depends on the replacement.
Thoughts on David Hamilton all the way down the road? The projections aren’t encouraging, but if he can put together a half-decent line, the runs, stolen bases, and 2B/SS compatibility should make him worth signing up for even in the minors, right? Will Bryce Turang be fair to Hamilton? – Sarvat K.
The biggest concern for me is playing time. Hamilton played three of five games last week and was not in the starting lineup Tuesday night. If his playing time stays like this, he won’t be eligible for the minors. In an everyday format with multiple spots, he could stay on the roster a little longer to see if playing time changes. If there isn’t enough room, he can be cut. The injury could open up more playing time for him, but if he’s facing right-handers, it’s not a good sign. Turang plays every day, so he’s more valuable.
What do you think of Corbin Carroll and Grayson Rodriguez? -Ryan R.
Carroll was a huge hit. I passed on him in the draft for Kyle Tucker, but I didn’t see him as that bad. He was better in June, hitting .250 with 21 runs and five stolen bases, but no home runs. Nothing looks promising for Carroll. He has no power, doesn’t hit the ball hard and has a 15 percent barrel. He’s not someone you buy cheap.
Rodriguez was strong, but I was expecting better. I thought he had a chance to make a big jump, but it didn’t happen. The numbers are similar to last season with a better WHIP. I’ve been expecting similar numbers from Rodriguez along the way. Four of his last five starts have been really good outside of the game against Houston, where he allowed seven runs on nine hits in five innings.
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(Top photo of Corbin Carroll: Denis Poroy – USA TODAY Sports)
2024-07-03 05:15:42
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