13.1 miles down, 13.1 miles to go.
I’ve never run an actual marathon, but as far as keyboard sports go, a season of fantasy baseball fits the bill nicely.
My recurring wish in the middle of summer is to normalize my plans for the second half of July. In fact, I think secondary drafts can be found in other fantasy sports as well. Draft Day is usually the best day of the year, so why not increase the fun? In addition to providing more development opportunities, we also have a way to try out formats that are rarely used in different sports.
The 12-Week Guillotine Baseball League?
Tag me!
There’s a lot to do with existing directories, and if you weren’t comfortable going through the entire directory and making major changes before, it’s safe to do so now. (It’s been weeks, but sometimes you want things to last a little longer before changing direction.)
And now, in retrospect, some of our assessments and decisions are worse than ever.
Looking back at NFBC projects from March 15-29, here are some of the interesting things we thought about in March.
- There was at least four players everyone wanted opposite Aaron Judge (his minimum pick was No. 5 overall, his ADP was 13… one spot behind Trea Turner).
- Judge had an abdominal injury that appeared before that window, which distanced some of us from the player who led MLB in wRC+ (179) from 2021-23 while hitting the most home runs (138) and one was among two players with 300-plus runs. y 300+ RBIs (Matt Olson) The spring injury news game can be brutal.
- Corbin Carroll close In the first round, he never dropped lower than 12th out of 430 drafts from various formats.
- Six pitchers finished ahead of Tyler Glasnow in ADP (38.76).
- Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader were two of the best relievers in fantasy baseball. Strikes, good salaries and job security.
- Blake Snell and Zach Eflin were reliably selected two rounds before Chris Sale.
However, things change quickly as each day’s season reveal unfolds page by page.
I’m always interested in the leaders of the previous calendar year. At this time of year, this is the path to Frankenstein numbers for the second half of 2023 with the results of the first half of 2024.
- Es Blake Snell still 13th in ERA during that span (3.01) among pitchers with at least 100 IP.
- He also has the highest strikeout rate (5.48 BB/9) and is 91/127 in WHIP (1.33).
- Ryan Pepiot is one of eight pitchers with a 1.00 WHIP (0.97) in that span.
- Christopher Sanchez is tenth in ERA! (2.91)
- Jameson Taillon has almost the same effectiveness (3.22) as Ranger Suárez (3.20).
- Aaron Judge has 50 homers, 118 RBIs and 104 runs despite playing in 142 games. (His 197 wRC+ ranks first.)
- Gunnar Henderson now third in MLB in home runs (43) last calendar year.
- Shea Langeliers hits like Nolan Gorman is in a position to catch him.
- Brice Turang looked a lot like Corbin Carroll. Carroll scored 32 more runs in that window, but they have identical strikeout and walk rates, Turang has an average lead of 19 runs, and they have nearly identical home runs and steals.
- Francisco Lindor has 28 homers and 37 steals, with a .267/.339/.469 line and 115 runs to go along with 84 RBIs. The only players with more homers and more steals are first-rounders (Bobby Witt Jr., Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani).
Looking for a drop in overall value, we might ask questions about Ozzie Albies this winter, as he hit 19 homers and stole 13 bases in 639 plate appearances (.278/.337/.456).
- Randy Arozarena’s hitting streak has dropped to 18 homers, 23 SB, 77 R and 53 RBI (.206/.314/.353).
- Matt Chapman and Nolan Arenado fell into the sub-20 home run range.
- Bo Bichette has nine homers and six steals with a .254/.302/.367 line in his last 533 court appearances.
- (Note/Confession: I liked Bo Bishet a lot (as the third round this year.)
- Jeremy Peña has just seven homers and 15 steals, with a .279/.333/.376 line in his last 656 PA.
- Brian Bello posted a 5.39 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 11.4% K-BB%.
- Marcus Stroman fell to a 7.1% K-BB%, fifth-worst among 127 pitchers with at least 100 IP.
- Luis Severino, another pitcher I really liked this draft season, has a K rate of 18.9% in 146.2 IP.
The broader point of this exercise is that a lot more will change in the last three months. There are still plenty of opportunities to be right and just as many to be wrong.
Listen to Rates & Barrels wherever you enjoy podcasts, including Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and the ad-free option within the Athletic app.
I decided to conclude last week’s recap with this since there are only three episodes left this week.
Aaron Sivale leads another “good” pitching organization
During this week’s livestream with Trevor May, we asked, “What trades might the Brewers have in mind for Civale?”
It’s always tempting to assume a new team has a tweak or two in mind when bringing in a new pitcher, and while the Rays made some minor changes to their pitching mix last offseason after acquiring Civale at the trade deadline for Kyle Manzardo, the Brewers plan to easily return to the mix Civale found success with during his time in Cleveland.
Another idea I suggested was to completely scrap his pitch order if he didn’t return, as Sivale’s cutter and sinker were more effective, and as he has plenty of suggestions for mixing and matching.
Even if the change is minimal, it leaves a division in second place (Orioles), third place (Yankees), 13th place (Red Sox) and 16th place (Blue Jays) in the NL Central standings. 17th place (Cards), 20th place (Cubs), 25th place (Reds) and 27th place (Pirates) would help.
James Wood and the deadline
In an ideal world, prospects would be promoted when they’re ready to play in the major leagues, and that appears to be the case for the Nationals’ top prospect, James Wood, who made his debut Monday and had a hit in his career debut. Recent rule and incentive changes have helped, but even within this framework, early-season debuts (Anthony Volpe in 2023, Wyatt Langford in 2024) and late-season debuts (Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson in 2022) are common because incentives around Rookie of the Year awards are made. A late push for Wood might have kept his ROY status intact for 2025 (he could be demoted, and that’s still a possibility), but giving him a chance now has plenty of potential benefits.
If the Nationals currently view themselves as a long-range wild-card contender, Wood is an upgrade over Eddie Rosario. If they work to drum up interest in their club, calling up their prospects now will give them half a season to build excitement and momentum around their young core. Additionally, and more importantly, from a player development perspective, half a season of experience for Wood could be the best way to prepare him for everyday work in 2025, when the Nationals can supplement the current roster with more talent via free agency and be in a better position to make the postseason. Additionally, this decision may help both sides come to terms on a long-term extension.
As we discussed on the show and with Keith Law Baseball athletic performance. In recent years, the gap between Triple-A and the majors is now quite large, and the unique shape of the ABS strike zone at Triple-A (the top of the zone is lower) creates another layer of challenge for players moving up to the big leagues. Wood is 6-foot-7, so we’re likely asking many of the same questions that arose when Aaron Judge debuted in 2016. Getting Wood out now immediately kicks off the next step in his development. A 21-year-old producing numbers 73 percent better than league average has little to learn against a lower level of competition.
Here’s a look at the 240 pitches thrown at the top of the zone (and above) against Wood in Triple-A this season.
The distribution of results on those pitches doesn’t look bad (an 11.7% bad-result rate is pretty low), and I’m sure we’ll learn a lot about Wood on that front relatively quickly, as a very small percentage of pitches miss at high pitch levels and he’s relatively easy as a ball.
The fantasy implications are simple. Wood has enough cap space in several categories to spend aggressively (25-30% of the budget) in the free agent leagues he’s still available for. If he plays well, he plays almost every day. If he struggles to go long (and many rookies do), he’s unlikely to go down, but you can fill the position if needed.
Why I’m more optimistic about Heston Kjerstad than Eno
A 25-year-old with a bright future in the majors should destroy this Triple-A crop. Check him out.
Projections for the rest of the season should point to an above-average hitter without much defensive value to make the top lineup. Check it out
(.252/.312/.417, 25,3% K% de The BAT X.)
Kjerstad was selected second overall in the shortened 2020 draft, meaning his college season was shortened by COVID and the 2021 season was missed due to myocarditis.
While 2024 is his age-25 season, Kjerstad is less experienced than the typical player his age and may not be a fully finished product.
In the smaller MLB sample size spanning two seasons, he’s already hitting .250/.342/.484 with a 14.0% barrel rate (and a peak EV last season of 107.6). Even if Kjerstad has good raw power — not elite raw power — he carries the ball consistently and has shown the ability to draw it to reach 25 home runs and potentially prolong a .230-.240 average over the long term.
From our conversation on Monday, these are basically the nice compacts that Eno Sarris dug up when trying to find the smallest Max EV players that keep coming back to power.
Yes, I’m guilty of underestimating Kerry Carpenter, and no, I don’t think Kjerstad swings and misses as often as Jarred Kelenich. An additional risk to Kjerstad’s profile from a fantasy perspective comes from his lack of contributions in the stolen base category.
The Orioles’ need for pitching could help resolve the logjam on the depth chart over the next four weeks, leaving Kjerstad with a clearer path to playing time in Baltimore or as a successful trade center.
Enjoy the 4th of July weekend in the United States: the show returns on Monday!
(James Wood Top photo: Rafael Suanes-HOY)
2024-07-04 06:58:24
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