The release clause for Maximilian Beier expired on Monday night. This does not necessarily mean that TSG Hoffenheim will now earn less from the 16-goal man. However, to a certain extent they will become more dependent on the market.
Was substituted against Switzerland: Maximilian Beier IMAGO/Nico Herbertz
Exit clauses are a good thing for everyone involved. Selling clubs know what they will receive, receiving clubs know what they have to pay, and players’ agents can put a price tag on their clients. In short: lengthy negotiations are unnecessary. In Beier’s case, however, such negotiations could arise in the medium term, provided that one of the many clubs that have been brought into contact with the 21-year-old so far makes its interest more concrete and also awakens the desire in the young professional to make a move. On the night of July 1st, the clause that allowed Beier to move for a fixed sum expired. A little more than 30 million euros would have been due if he had gone to the Premier League. A little less for a transfer within the Bundesliga, for example. Now that is obsolete.
TSG wants high revenue – xTV is at 26.3 million
Behind the scenes, Hoffenheim are confident that they can negotiate a similar sum in the worst case scenario, even without the clause. And the parameters certainly speak for it. Beier is young, he can still attract attention at the EURO – in any case, the fact that the DFB has nominated him for the EURO does not reduce his market value in any way – and his contract runs until 2027, so it is a long-term one. The London service provider Transferroom, which has been involved in more than 5,000 transfers since it was founded in 2017, has developed an algorithm that uses statistics and the financial strength of the current and a possible future employer to calculate an xTV, an expected transfer value, i.e. an expected transfer fee, analogous to the xG value (expected goals). For Beier, this is currently 26.3 million euros. Hoffenheim’s confidence in a high return is therefore supported from a purely data-based point of view.
However, what is realistic and what is not on the market depends on other factors of the future that neither club officials nor algorithms can influence. For example, the attractiveness of the interested parties. It is doubtful whether it is really worth it for Beier to move to a mid-range club in England. Time will tell whether he is far enough along for the top clubs. Many a talented player has already regretted such an early step.
Dependent on international market development
In addition, the international market is rather sluggish. Experts attribute this less to the EURO than to the fact that many English clubs have to sell professionals in order to comply with the financial rules. This can take a while, but there may soon be vacancies, as seen in the tug-of-war between VfB Stuttgart and Brighton & Hove Albion over Deniz Undav. Hoffenheim may have to prepare for a long poker game for Beier – but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything bad when it comes to the transfer fee, as people’s wallets are often looser towards the end of the transfer period.
2024-07-02 08:59:25
#Beier #long #poker
