02/07/2024 13:07
| door Mark Hanselman
Peter Windsor believes there is a real chance that Max Verstappen will not complete his contract with Red Bull Racing, which runs until 2028. The 72-year-old analyst believes that Verstappen is so strong that he is in a luxury position on the driver market and can choose the teams, although he advises the Dutchman not to make a hasty decision.
Windsor gives up YouTubespeaking to Cameron F1, indicated that it was only a matter of time before Red Bull’s dominance would come to an end. He does not immediately link it to the unrest within the team. ‘No team can continue to dominate forever. Mistakes always creep in. When Red Bull’s closest competitors come closer – whether that’s Ferrari, McLaren, or Mercedes – that creates more pressure. Pressure during pit stops, pressure during set-ups, and pressure during tire management’, Windsor sums up.
Red Bull has been under pressure for weeks, and that has also led to rare mistakes, both from the pit crew and from Verstappen himself. ‘Would Red Bull have had such a bad pit stop if Max had had a 25-second lead and the win was already in the bag? I honestly don’t know, because I don’t know exactly what the problem was at the left rear. They will never tell us,’ laughs Windsor.
Consequences of Newey’s departure
Windsor believes Red Bull can still be in the fight at the front for the next year and a half. “If Adrian (Newey, ed.) were to leave in the middle of next year, or announce his departure then, it would have more impact, because it would have a big impact on the 2026 car. Red Bull now has enough margin to be able to reach the end of 2025 with the momentum they have, with the people that are working there. Not much is happening with this car anymore, because in 2025 they will just have a further development of this car, because of the regulations. So until the end of 2025 they will be OK,” predicts the 72-year-old.
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What will Newey do next year?
There is a lot of whispering in the corridors about which engine supplier has the best cards in hand for 2026. Mercedes is seen as having a good chance, while there are some concerns about Red Bull Powertrains. Windsor does not agree. ‘I am confident that they will have a great power unit. It will be interesting to see how they do with the chassis, compared to the rest. It may be that the requirements, where half the power has to be generated electrically, also have an influence on what kind of car has to be built, and that there will not be too much difference between the teams. Maybe there will be, we will have to wait and see.’
What is Verstappen doing?
Given the uncertain future of Red Bull, there is also a lot of speculation in Formula 1 about the future of Verstappen, who signed a contract with Red Bull until 2028 in 2021. However, that contract contains escape clauses, and Windsor therefore expects the Dutchman to be able to leave before 2028. ‘I think there is a pretty big chance that he will drive for Mercedes in 2026. It all depends on the power units and how they are doing. I think 2027 is even more likely, because then he can first take a good look at how everyone is doing.’
“Let’s be honest, if he wants to keep his options open for 2027, I’m sure he can negotiate that with Red Bull,” Windsor smiles. “The logical thing would be to stay with Red Bull for 2025 and 2026, and give yourself an option to make a choice for 2027 around July 2026, depending on which team performs best then. He’s in that luxury position. He’s earned that luxury position.”
Windsor thinks Verstappen should be patient. ‘Why would he make a choice before the 2026 season? He doesn’t know better than you or I whether the Red Bulls will perform stronger or weaker than the Mercedes. How would he know that in October 2025? Those would be pure rumours about the power units. You can be pretty sure that Red Bull will have a very good car in 2026, so Max can only make a real judgement in the middle of 2026, and then possibly switch places. That’s what I would do if I were him’, Windsor concludes.
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