If your current fantasy roster still resembles the team you drafted, you’re probably in the minority. For the rest of us, I’m using a formulaic, data-driven approach to uncover next week’s MLB waiver wire headlines… today. Going position by position, I’ll go over my favorite baseball’s most obscure stats in terms of control, ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I’ll combine them all and hopefully identify some cheap gems to grab now before they hit the fields next week. Below, I’ll rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as pitchers with two starts and projected additions.
(Stats courtesy of our friends at Trumedia and action recorded as of 10/7/24)
Went…
The beginning of the jars
As far as presentation goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler: do your best to avoid any bias related to superficial statistics (outcomes) and instead focus on the underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate scents (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While the sight of either of these two lists may be a sound bite, I consider the appearance of both as a signal to pull the trigger immediately.
Tickets available: Multiple offers >30% Whiff (minimum 20 releases, starting June 1)
- Hayden Birdsong, SF – Changeup 39.1%, Curveball 33.3%, Slider 32.3%
- Alec Marsh, KC – Slider 36.2%, Cleanup 33.3%, Curveball 31.9%
- Mitchell Parker, WAS – Dedo partido 34,5%, Slider 32,7%, Curveball 30,9%
- Spencer Schellenbach, ATL – Split Finger 51,9%, cambio 46,2%
- Frankie Montas, CIN – Split finger 51.5%, slider 33.3%
- Spencer Arrigetti, HOU – Curveball 46.9%, Sweeper 39.5%
- Tobias Myers, MIL – Changeup 45.2%, slider 32.5%
- Hayden Wesneski, CHC – sweeper 44.3%, cut 30.8%
- Ryan Feltner, COL – 41.3% change, 30.4% curve ball
- Luis Medina, OAC – Curveball 40.7%, Slider 31.8%
- Dean Kremer, BAL – 4-seam fastball 39.3%, split finger 34.6%
- Brian Bello, BOS – Slider 38.6%, Changeup 36.5%
- Chris Flexen, CHW – Bola curva 37,1%, cambio 34,0%
- Andre Pallante, STL: curveball 35.9%, slider 34.1%
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX – Change 34.7%, Cleaner 30.8%
- Griffin Canning, LAA – Slider 32.4%, Curveball 32.0%
- Hogan Harris, OAC – Cambio 31,4%, Curveball 30,0%
- Patrick Corbin, WAS – 31.3% slider, 30.6% cutter
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR – Curveball 30.8%, Slider 30.4%
Start Available: ≤.350 Projected Weighted Average, Contact Only (xwOBAcon, as of June 1)
Hidden Gems: We have officially entered the “add first, ask questions later” segment if you need a lasting solution. I have been keeping a close eye on the 27-year-old from Toronto. Yariel Rodriguez of earning an opening day spot out of spring training. Uncertainties surrounding overseas adjustments and early labor concerns were enough to keep him at arm’s length and off my rosters when thoracic spine inflammation sent him to the IL. Then last week, the Blue Jays reported a full recovery and immediate re-insertion into the rotation after proper rehab. After a solo comeback, TOR removed the adjuster and the result was two gems in a row: 12.2 IP, 1 W, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 12 K. Rodriguez produces both with his slider and bunts. kure, create an addition to the average ranchers. I’d say his heater is good, but not great, though I like the way he spins the ball – Rodriguez’s 2,416 spins rank first among starters in fastball revolutions. He’s also shown the ability to go the distance, pitching at least six innings in each of his last two starts for a Blue Jays team that’s struggling to at least win overnight. Perhaps the imaginary ceiling is limited as support for SP4… but who among us can honestly say he won’t be a big help now?
Available hitters: >106.5 mph 90th percentile (minimum 50 PA in last 30 days)
- Jesus Sanchez, OF, MIA – 110.3 mph EV
- Jake Burger, 3B, MIA – 109.9 mph electric vehicle
- Michael Conforto, OF, SF – 109,1 mph EV
- Mark Winds, 3B, New York – EV of 108.8 mph
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT – 108,9 mph EV
- Brent Rooker, OF, OAK – 108,5 mph EV
- Lawrence Butler, OF, OAK – 108,3 mph EV
- Colton Cowser, OF, BAL – 108,1 mph EV
- Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT – 107,3 mph EV
- Heliot Ramos, OF, SF – 107,2 mph EV
- Hunter Goodman, C, COL – 107,0 mph EV
Available hitters: .395 xwOBAcon (minimum 50 PA last 30 days)
- Ben Rice, 1B, NYY – 18,1% Chase, 0,497 xwOBAcon
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT – 22.2% Chase, 0.444 xwOBAcon
- Daniel Schneemann, OF, CLE – 20.4% Caza, 0.438 xwOBAcon
- Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT – 19,2% Caza, 0,419 xwOBAcon
- JJ Bleday, OF, OAK – 24,9% Caza, 0,407 xwOBAcon
- Michael Toglia, 1B, COL – 25.0% Caza, .400 xwOBAcon
- Justin-Henry Malloy, OF, DET – 22,8% Chase, 0,399 xwOBAcon
- Chris Taylor, OF, LAD – 17,8% Caza, .396 xwOBAcon
Available hitters: ≥17% high line drive/pull per appearance (at least 50 PA in the last 30 days)
- Ernie Clement, 3B, TOR – 26,6%% FBLD
- Dylan Carlson, OF, STL – 19,4% Empate FBLD%
- Adam Duvall, OF, ATL – 19,0% Empate FBLD%
- Harrison Bader, OF, NYM – Obtuvo 18,2% FBLD%
- Eugenio Suárez, 3B, ARI – 18.1% FBLD %
- Jose Caballero, SS, TB – 17.7% Draw FBLD%
- Jake Fraley, OF, CIN – Obtuvo 17,6% FBLD%
- Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA – 17,8% Empate FBLD%
- Kyle Isbell, OF, KC – 16,9% Empate FBLD%
Hidden Gems: In this week’s edition of strikeouts while the legendary iron is hot, I’m not sure there’s another star shining brighter than Pittsburgh’s 1B since June 1. Rowdy Tellez. The power has always been legit for the big man, who will hit 35 ding-dongs in 2022, but we have to show him as a one-trick pony. Telles is just 29 years old, and honestly, he’s put up an incredibly solid set of key stats over the past five weeks. Over his past 104 PA, it’s not just the 40 strikeouts that GMs are raking in (.351 BA/16 R/22 RBI/7 HR/1 SB, 1.023 OPS, .392 xwOBA) because he’s built on a solid foundation of tightly-done discipline. (12.5% K-BB, 5.9% Swinging Strike, 24.7% Chase) on top of elite contact skills (92.6% Zone-Contact, 40.8% Pull) and over-the-top power, which is always the icing on the cake Rowdy was cooking up (13.2% Barrel, .466 xwOBAcon). Tellez currently sits in the top 15% of the roster across multiple sites, and that needs to change for anyone falling behind in the HR category – he can throw down 20 bombs in the second half of a pure hitting season.
embossed jars
Focusing on roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when selecting closers, but zeroing in on a combination of stats like elite command and swing-and-miss ability can help us identify guys of the future, especially in vulnerable bullpens. If you want to dig deeper into RPs, I also recommend Greg Jewett’s weekly column: Nobody Beats Healing.
Relievers: > 13.5% Swinging and hitting- Dylan Lee, ATL – 18.7% SwStrk%, 29.4% Ball
- Enyel De Los Santos, SDP: 16.0% SwStrk%, 32.1% Ball
- Ryan Stanek, SEA – 14.5% SwStrk%, 33.6% Bola
- Andrew Nardi, MIA – 14.4% SwStrk%, 33.8% Bola
- Joe Jiménez, ATL – 14.0% SwStrk%, 33.5% Bola
- Hunter Stratton, PIT – 14,0% SwStrk%, 31,1% Bola
- Matt Strahm, PHI – 14.0% SwStrk%, 27.6% Ball
- Cam Booster, BOS: 13,9% SwStrk%, 29,2% Bola
- Adrian Morjon, SDP – 13.8% SwStrk%, 31.5% Bola
- Hunter Harvey, WSN – 13,5% SwStrk%, 32,0% Bola
The release cable is added by position.
catch
First base
second base
campocorto
Third base
Outside, +10/12 Team
Outside, +12/15 Team
Gardens, +15 Team/Individual
Heather Stacey
Leaders
Start Launcher Stash
Libertadores
Thanks so much for reading – comments, feedback, and general reaction to the article are much appreciated. Feel free to let my supervisors know what I’m doing next if you have any comments or questions. Be sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to the new Substack page with all the fantasy, betting, and DFS information you can stand.
(Top photo by Yariel Rodríguez: David Richard-HOY)
2024-07-12 22:22:46
#Fantasy #Baseball #Launch #Cable #Add #Yariel #Rodriguez #Rowdy #Telles
