- The Australian Dollar remains stronger following the release of Purchasing Managers’ Index data on Thursday.
- The Judo Bank of Australia Services PMI rose to 50.6 in October, marking its ninth consecutive month of expansion.
- The Fed’s Beige Book report indicated that economic activity was “little changed in nearly all Districts.”
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rises against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the domestic Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Thursday. Additionally, the AUD/USD pair gained ground as the USD weakened slightly, driven by a modest decline in US Treasury yields. US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at at 4.07% and 4.23%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The AUD could draw further support from the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), bolstered by positive employment data. Earlier this week, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted that the labor participation rate is remarkably high and emphasized that while the RBA is dependent on data, it is not obsessed with it.
The US dollar faced downward pressure following the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book on Wednesday. The latest report indicated that economic activity was “little changed in almost all Districts,” in contrast to the August report, where three Districts reported growth and nine showed flat activity.
Traders are likely to be watching the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a leading indicator measuring U.S. private business activity in the manufacturing and services sector, due to be released on Thursday.
Daily Market Summary: Australian Dollar Receives Support from Dovish Sentiment Surrounding RBA
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 88.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, with no expectation of a cut larger than 50 basis points.
- The Judo Bank of Australia Composite PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in October, from 49.6 in September, signaling the second consecutive month of contraction in private sector output. The Services PMI rose to 50.6 from 50.5, marking its ninth consecutive month of expansion, while the Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.6 from 46.7, continuing its decline.
- In a post on social media platform more sustainable path.
- On Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari highlighted that the Fed is closely monitoring the US labor market for signs of rapid destabilization. Kashkari warned investors to anticipate a gradual pace of rate cuts in the coming quarters, suggesting that any monetary easing will likely be moderate rather than aggressive.
- The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the 1-year LPR to 3.10% from 3.35% and the 5-year LPR to 3.60% from 3.85%, in line with expectations. Lower borrowing costs are anticipated to stimulate China’s domestic economic activity, which could increase demand for Australian exports.
- The National Australia Bank revised its forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in a note last week. “We have brought forward our expectations for the timing of rate cuts, now anticipating the first cut in February 2025, rather than May,” the bank stated. They continue to forecast gradual cuts, with rates expected to decline to 3.10% by early 2026.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains below 0.6650, near six-week lows
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6640 on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a short-term bearish outlook as the pair remains below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
As for support, the AUD/USD pair could retest its two-month low of 0.6614, last seen on Wednesday. The next key support appears at the psychological level of 0.6600.
To the upside, resistance is expected at the nine-day EMA at 0.6680, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6728. A break above these levels could open the door for a possible move towards the psychological resistance of 0.6800.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against major currencies today. Australian dollar was the strongest currency against the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.30% | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.15% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.03% | -0.20% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.08% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.26% | -0.06% | -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.26% | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.26% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.20% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.14% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.15% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.11% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.26% | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the AUD (base)/USD (quote).
economic indicator
S&P Global Integrated PMI
The monthly integrated PMI reports for manufacturing products and services, published by Markit Economicsare based on surveys conducted with executives from a large number of private companies in the manufacturing sector and the service sector. The information is released on the third business day of each month. Each response is weighted based on the size of the company and its contribution to total production or production of services, valued by the sub-sector of societies to which it belongs. Responses from larger companies have a greater impact on the final indices than those from small companies. The results are presented through a question, which shows the percentage of respondents who reported improvement, deterioration or no change from the previous month. From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change from the previous month, above 50.0 the signal is of increase (or improvement) and below 50.0, a decrease ( or contraction).
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