WashingtonThree weeks before the election, black men and Hispanic voters remain the main weaknesses of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. A new survey published by New York Times and Sienna College show how the main gap preventing Harris from reaching the same level of support among black voters that Joe Biden had in 2020 is black men. The poll also shows that Harris is the Democratic candidate with the lowest support numbers among Hispanic voters since Hillary Clinton: In 2016, 68% said they would vote Democratic, down from 56% now.
When Harris took over from Joe Biden in the summer, Democrats were already pointing to the trend of these two groups of voters as one of the main problems to correct. Especially in the case of black voters, who for years the Democratic party has considered them as one of the pillars that make up the bases. The gender gap in this group of voters already existed then. An August 20 Pew Research poll showed 79 percent of black women saying they would vote for Harris, compared to 73 percent of black men. The survey of New York Times from this weekend shows how support among black women has grown to 83%, but that of black men has fallen to 70%.
“There is a lot of misinformation. I hear it every day around me and I understand a little bit about the black men who are supporting Trump. There is a feeling that a lot of the aid is being taken away by Latin American migrants, while there is still a historical debt to the black community. We were brought here by force and many black men feel that the damage has not yet been repaired, and more so when they see the policies of aid to migrants,” explained Rael Jackson during the Democratic Convention in August As a black man and a Democrat voter I believed that the key would be black women.
“If they vote, the Democrats win,” Jackson said at the time. At that time the trend in the polls was one Harris was marking more and more distance with Trump, but now the perpendicular lines are getting closer and closer, drawing a very tight race in the final stretch. Harris currently trails Donald Trump by just two percentage points nationally, 48.5 percent to 46.1 percent, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
The perception that Jackson was discussing, that Democrats have failed to deliver on campaign promises and have not cared enough about African Americans, is also reflected in the poll of New York Times. 24% of black men believe the Republican Party is keeping its promises, and overall, 40% of black voters under 30 also believe the Republican Party is keeping its promises.
The big issue for black voters remains the economy, an area where Harris still has a disadvantage over Trump. More than seven in 10 black voters said they had had to cut their food spending because of inflation. Also, 41% of black voters are in favor of deporting illegal immigrants, one of Trump’s star measures.
Trump, boosted by the Latino vote
In past elections, the Latino vote already gave Democrats warning signs: More Latino voters went for Trump in 2020 than in 2016, according to a CNN poll. Four years later, the trend seems to be consolidating despite Trump’s aggressive rhetoric against immigration, the majority of which is of Latin American origin.
Although among this group Harris still has 56% of support, compared to 37% for Trump, it is well below the support of his Democratic predecessors, which always remained above 60%.
Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric is not affecting the Latino community, according to the survey. 67% of US-born Latinos don’t feel the Republican is talking about them when it comes to immigration. 51% of Latinos born outside the United States also do not feel challenged in Trump’s speech.
Another noteworthy fact is the fact that Trump’s immigration policies have broad support among Hispanics: more than a third of voters in this group are in favor of building a wall on the border with Mexico and deporting immigrants illegals entering the country.
The support of the Latino community is increasingly shaping up to be more key in the November 5 election. Hispanics alone make up nearly a fifth of the nation’s total population, according to the latest census in 2020. Of those, at least 36.2 million may register to vote this year, according to the Pew Research Center.
