China is accelerating the expansion of its nuclear arsenal, according to a recent Pentagon report. This report estimates that the Asian country already has more than 500 nuclear warheads and could exceed 1,000 by 2030. The United States’ initial projection was much lower, so this new information has forced Washington to reconsider the magnitude of military capabilities. Chinese.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimated in 2020 that China had approximately 200 nuclear warheads. However, Beijing has surpassed that estimate in short order. Although China’s arsenal remains smaller than that of the United States or Russia, reports indicate rapid modernization of its nuclear forces. This significant change represents a challenge to global stability.
Military expansion and modernization
China’s nuclear buildup is part of an ambitious People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization project. For more than a decade, the country has increased its defense budget and promoted the development of advanced weapons. The Pentagon notes that China’s current nuclear expansion effort is “unprecedented in scale and complexity.”
Despite these advances, it is still unclear what China’s purpose behind this accelerated expansion is. Direct talks between the Pentagon and the PLA only resumed this year, after having been suspended since 2022. US officials have expressed concern about Beijing’s lack of transparency about its goals. According to the Pentagon, China could be evaluating scenarios that include “limited nuclear use” in conflicts involving non-nuclear weapons. This approach would call into question China’s historical stance, which viewed nuclear war as uncontrollable.
Strategic objectives and tensions in Asia-Pacific
This development also aligns with the strategic objectives of the Chinese Communist Party. Beijing aims for the PLA to achieve a “world-class military force” by 2027, the year that marks the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army. Although it does not necessarily imply an invasion of Taiwan, this date represents a key strategic objective. In parallel, the PLA faces internal challenges, such as the recent purge of senior officers in the Rocket Force, the PLA’s nuclear wing, due to corruption issues.
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