What They Say: Scott Harris Edition

Translated by Fernando Battaglini

On Monday, Detroit Tigers general manager Scott Harrisand manager AJ Hinch met with the media to show off what they had achieved. A team that was mired in a season to forget rebounded to win 86 games, advance to the postseason and appear ready to compete in 2025.

But precisely how Harris and the organization view that success will not only influence how they approach the winter season, it will also affect the team’s fantasy values ​​in 2025. And it’s not easy to process a season like that, when the The data through August 10 looks one way (55-63, apathetic offense) and what came next is completely different, a 31-13 finish capped by a playoff series victory over the Orioles.

For his part, Harris didn’t sound like someone who believed the end of Detroit’s season was a fluke.

“I think we’ve both seen some really exciting things with this team. We showed that we can play with anyone. I think our track record suggests we can do that. At the same time, the second thought in my head, and I know AJ thinks the same, is that these guys can get a lot better. A lot of these guys. These players can improve a lot. “They are starting to feel comfortable at this level.”

Harris used Parker Meadows as his initial example, which is surprising. In his first 89 plate appearances, his batting line was .104/.225/.260. He was sent to the minors, and returned on July 4. Starting July 5? .300/.344/.513, but in only 213 plate appearances. This isn’t an unfair bet for the Tigers that one of their top outfield prospects, a second-round pick who is still just 23 years old, adapted to major league pitching. But advanced metrics don’t show a unified theory of progress: your exit velocity in September looks much more like April/May than July/August, and contained an alarming amount of swings and misses.

It’s clear that, for good reasons that aren’t pure fantasy, the Tigers have committed to Meadows playing every day in center field next season, but the sample size worries me.

Notably, Harris boasts a similar jump in a similar period for several of his other young players.

“A lot of these young players that came out in August haven’t even made it to the second half,” Harris said. “Trey Sweeney didn’t make it to the second half. Jace Jung didn’t make it to the second half. Jackson Jobe did not make it to the second half. So we have to stay focused on the things that got us here… but I don’t think there’s anyone in this building who doesn’t think, on an individual level and on a team level, that this team can’t get much better.”

Indeed, Jung had the same sample size as Meadows before being sent to the minors, with barely better results: a .304 slugging percentage fully supported by his underlying metrics. Sweeney hit .218/.269/.373 in 119 plate appearances. Jobe barely had any time in the big leagues, with four scoreless innings during the regular season and a pair of forgettable postseason appearances.

I think it’s reasonable for Detroit to see what they have in Sweeney and Jung, for sure. But naming them so prominently suggests to me that Harris plans to make them his left side of the infield in 2025, a clear opportunity to land regular roles that should elevate their trade value all winter in dynasty leagues.

I’m probably the one who likes Jobe the most, and I can appreciate that it’s not a very controversial opinion. But I love the pitch mix, I love the speed with which he pitched the minor leagues and, best of all, that he did so as a starter throughout Triple-A, bringing his inning count to around 100 and setting him up for a season in which he can play at full capacity, or very close to it.

The part of Detroit’s offseason plan that interests me most is this: The Tigers are clearly in a position to spend money. Where is that happening? Surely, a rotation splurge makes sense, even assuming the health and effectiveness of Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson and Casey Mize. But perhaps the biggest thing that caught my attention about Harris’ plans was his explicit call to have more right-handed hitters on the roster in 2025. Sure, maybe he’s referring to catching. But if we assume the left side of the infield isn’t where the owners’ money will be spent — Colt Keith is the second baseman, Riley Greene is patrolling left — that really only leaves right field, where switch-hitter Wenceel Perez struggled. to hit lefties, and first base, where you may have heard that the Tigers do have a right-handed hitter: Spencer Torkelson.

It’s almost inconceivable how far and how quickly Torkelson has fallen in Detroit’s pecking order. And this is not without reason, not after Torkelson was hitting .219/.295/.374 in 2024, and his minor league restart provided only a marginal improvement, .248/..338/.444 after returning from Triple-A in 151 plate appearances.

Still: He did it in his age-24 season, a year after hitting 31 home runs in 2023. Depending on how you look at it, that’s a scarily quick hook for a once-elite, or even middling, prospect. , more data suggesting he can hit well against major league pitching in the second half of 2024 than the Tigers got from any of the young players Harris couldn’t wait to promote them to.

Understanding that Torkelson was an early pick from a previous regime helps explain some of this gap. Harris said Torkelson needs to have “a great winter season,” something I’m reasonably sure won’t happen. Harris also said he wants more production at first base. All signs point to Torkelson being traded and getting a fresh start elsewhere in 2025.

This is a 1-to-1 pick who just turned 25 years old. You can probably get him for a few cents in your dynasty league, and he’ll be a late pick in next year’s draft leagues. Don’t let it escape.