Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? America is preparing to welcome the new leadership of the United States.
Nate Silver’s stats
According to the latest election modeling study by statistician Nate Silver, Kamala Harris is slightly ahead. The analyst is known for his accurate forecasts and began his career by developing a model to predict baseball outcomes before becoming known as predicted Obama’s victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primaries. Recently, despite describing a statistical stalemate, he admitted that he felt a “gut feeling” of an advantage for Trump and admitted that he would not bet on either candidate.
Despite it Harris has won 50,015 times in his 80,000 simulationsthe expert emphasizes: “The duel is literally decided by a coin toss.” With extremely competitive key states and a gap between candidates of less than 1,2%, except perhaps in Arizona, where Trump is “showing what looks like a clear advantage,” Silver says, “When I say the odds in this election as close to 50/50 as possible I’m not exaggerating.”
Die Analyse von FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight has also released its final forecast, with Harris with a slim lead of 50% chance of winning versus 49% for Trump.
Allan Lichtman’s forecast
And Allan Lichtman, who has predicted 9 of the last 10 elections, has confirmed his prediction: Harris will win.
The Wall Street Journal Analysis
In addition to Harris and Trump, the economy plays a crucial role in this close competition, as an analysis by the Wall Street Journal shows that an easy victory for Trump with 50.5% vs. 49.5% for Harris suggests. According to the historical model of Ray Faireconomist of Yale Universitythree key economic factors can influence the vote. The first is this GDP per capita growth: A growing economy can have a positive impact on the incumbent government. Although the US under Biden achieved average growth of 2,8 % recorded, voters appear to be looking at the most recent data.
The second factor is that Inflationas significant price increases put the incumbent party at a disadvantage. During Biden’s presidency, the GDP price index showed an annual rate of 4.5%, the fastest since Reagan. The third variable is the Number of quarters with growth of GDP per capita of over 3.2%which Fair defines as “good news quarters.” The Democratic administration under Biden recorded four such quarters, while the Republican administration under Trump had three before 2020.
Based on these parameters, the fair model predicts a very close resultwith a minimal difference between the candidates. However, Fair himself admits that the model is not infallibleas it incorrectly predicted a Trump victory against Clinton in 2016 and against Biden in 2020.
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