Will Leitch
MLB.com
To no one’s surprise, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge won the National League and American League Most Valuable Player awards, respectively, on Thursday night. The announcements capped two of the most extraordinary seasons in recent baseball memory.
Ohtani had a season of 54 home runs and 59 stolen basesand Judge…well, Judge was probably an even better hitter than that in 2024. There wasn’t much debate about it, as evidenced by the unanimous pick for both players.
It is clear that both Ohtani and Judge have secured their places in the history of the game. After all, they are the two most famous players in the world right now, as was made clear in the World Series.
This is not even the first time they have received the award for JMV; It is the third trophy for Ohtani (second in a row and in different leagues), while for Judge it is the second. And it doesn’t look like they’re going away anytime soon.
Ohtani has a contract with the Dodgers until 2033, while Judge will be in the Bronx at least until 2031. We will continue to see them, in their current uniforms, for quite some time.
However, history has a way of playing with our perceptions. For reasons specific to each player, it seems clear that, when their careers are over, the cumulative totals – those round numbers we usually associate with members of the Hall of Fame – will be smaller than we might have expected.
So when future generations spend hours reviewing their stats on Baseball-Reference or MLB.comyou may not fully understand how great these two men were… because those career numbers won’t necessarily be shocking.
This is no reason to disparage their careers, of course, no matter what happens in the future. It is a reason to value them at this moment, a opportunity to reflect about how good their respective peaks have been and how lucky we are to be able to see them reach those levels.
First, let’s talk about Ohtani. Obviously, it’s a special case. Not only is he a unique player in the Major Leagues, performing as starting pitcher and centerpiece in the lineup, but his achievements are much more appreciated in the moment; He is literally the only player who has done what he is doing, and at this level.
But much of Ohtani’s appeal is wrapped up in that inherent risk, that tension between the miracle of what is achieving and the fear that I won’t be able to do it forever. We have proof of that, of course: He didn’t pitch in 2024. He still won the MVP award.
But is it reasonable to expect Ohtani to continue pitching for the remainder of his contract with the Dodgers, through 2033? Probably not, right? And even if he pitches for the next half-decade, it’s unlikely he’ll rack up enough innings for his numbers on the mound to truly impress everyone.
Despite all its success so far, we must remember that it underwent a second Tommy surgery John, and has only pitched 481.2 episodes in MLB.
To put it in perspective, that’s less than pitchers like Andrew Chafin, Griffin Canning, Dakota Hudson and T.J. McFarland.
Ohtani will throw more, but he’s not even halfway to pitching like José Ureña or Mark Gonzales. This means that it will be his offensive numbers that will truly define his statistical legacy.
But there are limitations there too. Ohtani is 30 years old, turning 31 in July, and has “only” accumulated 225 home runs in his career.
That places him in eighth place among active players at that age, just seven more than Anthony Rizzo and 10 more than Puerto Rican Francisco Lindor. Additionally, most players don’t maintain the same pace once they enter their 30s.
Although Ohtani hasn’t missed much time at the plate due to injuries in recent years – he’s 15th in MLB in games played since 2021 – his exploits as a two-way player likely increase the risk of injuries that could affect his availability as a slugger.
That could make reaching milestones like 500 home runs much more difficult than it seems now.
Judge could face even more challenges. He’s two years older than Ohtani and has a more spotty health history, not to mention the physical challenge of being 6-foot-7 and 282 pounds.
Judge reached the Major Leagues at age 24 and won Rookie of the Year at age 25. (It’s worth remembering that Dominican Juan Soto just turned 26.)
That late start has always made it difficult for Judge to reach the cumulative totals one would expect from someone who has hit at least 58 homers in two seasons. (The shortened 2020 campaign also hurts his totals, as do Ohtani’s and many players from this era.)
This means that Judge has “only” 315 homers and 1,026 hits; Do you remember how surprised everyone was when they came to the 1,000 hits last year? Now, obviously, Judge can add home runs quickly, including 157 over the last three seasons.
But he connected them between the ages of 30 and 32, and there is a lot of historical concern about how players of his size age. Are we sure he will reach 500 home runs?
my colleague Andrew Simon attempted to analyze this in August, and one estimate, using Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” tool, gave Judge an 82% chance of hitting 500 homers and a 37% chance of hitting 600.
Frankly, both figures seem a little high to me. In any case, considering his name and reputation, Judge’s total will probably end up being less than many think.
If I’ve learned anything in my years writing about baseball, it’s that the further you get from a player’s career and what he saw while he played, the more dependent you become on his stat sheet.
This is not a bad thing; It’s the reason people finally started to appreciate Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines long after their careers ended, in a way they didn’t while they were playing.
But it can also lead to forgetting, in the fog of statistics, how overwhelming and dominant a player was in his prime. (It’s why everyone who watched Dale Murphy felt like they were watching a Hall of Famer, even though his final numbers weren’t all that impressive.)
Right now, it seems obvious that the best players of this era are Ohtani and Judge. But I wonder if that will be just as obvious in 20 years, when all is said and done… and his cumulative numbers fall behind those of baseball players like Soto, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or whoever. This is especially true for those who won’t remember seeing Ohtani and Judge in their prime.
This doesn’t mean they aren’t future Hall of Famers: Ohtani and Judge clearly are. But the only way to truly appreciate how transcendent they are right now is to see them now. Because, in the end, the accumulated statistics won’t do as much as they should to remember us.
We are seeing players of another level, at their peak, right now. We are lucky to be able to witness it. Maybe we’re the only ones who, in the end, really understand it.
