Image credit: © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Translated by Pepe Latorre
In any offseason, only a limited number of top-level starters are available in free agency. This year is no different. We have to Blake Snell, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Rōki Sasaki. If your team doesn’t land one of the big names, it will have to search through the offers to complete its rotation. Sometimes there are bargains available, but relying too much on the “less good” can lead to spectacular failure.
The question is this: How do you distinguish the pitchers on list A and B from those on list D? All stats below are for starters in this publication’s Top 50 free agents, as judged by Craig Goldstein and Patrick Dubuque. One group of four is at the top of the Top 25 and another at the bottom of the Top 26-50.
I propose a game: you will receive 20 points if you can distinguish the good group from the mediocre one. And another 10 points for each pitcher you can identify based on their stats. Feel free to post your score in the comments. Or don’t do it. It’s up to you and we will rely on your honor and integrity for the scores.
Group 1:
| Pitcher | K% | BB% | Z-Con% | Hard-Hit% | FA mph |
| 1A | 27.7% | 7.8% | 81.9% | 37.1% | 92.1 |
| 1B | 22.9% | 5.9% | 85.2% | 39.7% | 91.8 |
| 1C | 22.6% | 10.1% | 85.4% | 42.3% | 95.8 |
| 1D | 22.6% | 5.6% | 82.3% | 34.9% | 92.6 |
Group 2:
| Pitcher | K% | BB% | Z-Con% | Hard-Hit% | FA mph |
| 2A | 23.1% | 6.1% | 87.0% | 31.6% | 95.3 |
| 2B | 29.9% | 5.9% | 83.5% | 34.9% | 93.0 |
| 2C | 23.2% | 8.0% | 87.4% | 34.5% | 93.6 |
| 2D | 24.9% | 8.5% | 83.2% | 37.6% | 92.2 |
I’ll leave you a hint, and it’s not too useful: the pitchers are arranged alphabetically within their groups. Admittedly, the statistics provided are carefully selected and lack important context such as age, workload and durability, which have huge effects on the length of the contract and the average annual value they will have. No general manager is going to determine player ratings based solely on these criteria, and yet that is the task I have assigned to you. Good luck!
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… Do you need more time?
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…Just filling in space so you don’t see the names offered below
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… It was a good day, right?
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Okay. That’s it. Let’s get to it.
Group 1:
Group 2:
| Pitcher | Pitcher | Ranking FA | K% | BB% | Z-Con% | Hard-Hit% | FA mph |
| 2A | Corbin Burnes | 2 | 23.1% | 6.1% | 87.0% | 31.6% | 95.3 |
| 2B | Jack Flaherty | 10 | 29.9% | 5.9% | 83.5% | 34.9% | 93.0 |
| 2C | Max Fried | 4 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 87.4% | 34.5% | 93.6 |
| 2D | Sean Manaea | 16 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 83.2% | 37.6% | 92.2 |
There were some clues as to which group each was, but also red herrings. The three lowest strikeout rates (K%) were among Group 1 starters, but Boyd’s 27.7% may have raised some questions. The three best hard contact rates (Hard-Hit%) belong to the three highest-ranked pitchers, but the least-rated group allowed the least contact in the zone (Z-Con%). These are the averages of the two groups:
| Group | K% | BB% | Z-Con% | Hard-Hit% | FA mph |
| 1 | 24.0% | 7.4% | 83.7% | 38.5% | 93.1 |
| 2 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 85.3% | 34.7% | 93.5 |
The overall performances of the two groups were very similar, but again these specific statistics were chosen for a reason. Here are the key differences between them: Group 1 pitchers in 2025 range in age from 32 to 40 and averaged 98 innings last season. Group 2 is between 29 and 33 years old and averaged 178 innings. From everything we know about pitching evaluation, two of the most predictive “statistics” of future performance and contract value are age and innings pitched.
Below the MLB Trade Rumors contract predictions for each of the listed launchers:
| Pitcher | Years | Total Value (Millions) | AAV (Millions) |
| Matthew Boyd | 2 | 25 | 12.5 |
| Andrew Heaney | 2 | 24 | 12.0 |
| Frankie Montas | 2 | 22 | 11.0 |
| Max Scherzer | 1 | 16 | 16.0 |
| Corbin Burnes | 7 | 200 | 28.6 |
| Jack Flaherty | 5 | 115 | 23.0 |
| Max Fried | 6 | 156 | 26.0 |
| Sean Manaea | 3 | 60 | 20.0 |
Looking at the metrics given, how sure are you that Flaherty will outpitch Boyd? Are you sure for 90 million dollars? Would you bet $36 million from your boss (and possibly your job) that Manaea will be more valuable than Heaney? Fortunately, you don’t have to make those decisions. All you had to do was play a very low-stakes guessing game.
Thank you for reading
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