Real Madrid faces an unprecedented threat in a new Champions League format that challenges traditional schemes: being left out in the group stage, something that has never happened in its European history.
For the first time, the merengue team occupies the last position that allows them to play in the playoffs to access the round of 16, 24th place in a classification of 36 teams. One step lower, 25th, would mean their elimination without the possibility of even falling to the Europa League. This format eliminates the “plan B” that rescued the third in the group, leaving Madrid in an all or nothing situation that is not familiar to them.
The betting houses already reflect this panorama: Real Madrid has gone from being the second favorite to win the tournament to occupying fifth position, with just 12% implicit probabilities. Recent results, including a defeat to Liverpool, increase skepticism. Throughout the modern era of the Champions League, the whites have never fallen so early; Not even Barcelona, which suffered consecutive eliminations in 2021 and 2022, reached this level of historical uncertainty.
The only comparable precedent dates back to 1996, when Madrid finished sixth in LaLiga and outside of European competitions. Since then, changes in the classification criteria kept the club in the elite, always surpassing the group stage. Not even in their darkest years, like between 2003 and 2011, when they chained eliminations in the round of 16, did they come close to a disaster like the one they face today.
In its most distant history, Madrid’s initial setbacks occurred in 1961 and 1963, but in the old European Cup. Today, the most successful club in the Champions League is on the verge of an elimination that would be an unprecedented blow to its legacy.
