NEW YORK (AP) — Juan Soto appears to have a timetable for deciding which team he will sign with, either before or during baseball’s winter meetings in Dallas, which will be held Dec. 8-12.
Soto has met with the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, a person familiar with the negotiations said last week.
That source spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because details were not announced.
On Tuesday through his social networks, Soto shared a post that quickly went viral titled “the announcement they had been waiting for.” The ad turned out to be a publicity stunt.
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The Dominican baseball player announced that he had decided to join the “Celsius” team, a popular energy drink.
“All cool, but it almost gave me an attack,” said a fan among the more than ten thousand comments on the 26-year-old player’s publication.
The publication came at a very critical time while fans of the player and five different Major League Baseball teams anxiously await Soto’s decision.
Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, asked teams to submit initial offers before Thanksgiving, a second person familiar with the talks said, also on condition of anonymity because the negotiations have not been disclosed.
Soto is the most notable player available among this year’s free agents. A four-time All-Star, Soto finished third in American League Most Valuable Player voting after batting .288 with 41 home runs, 109 RBIs and 129 walks.
He has a career .285 average with 201 home runs, 592 RBIs and 769 walks in seven major league seasons.
In 2022, Soto rejected an offer from Washington for $440 million and 15 years. This led the Nationals to trade him to San Diego, which traded him to the Yankees last December. Soto then teamed up with Aaron Judge to lead New York to the World Series, where the Yankees succumbed to the Dodgers.
In his presentation to the teams, Boras noted that Soto joined Mickey Mantle as the only players with seven RBIs in a World Series at the age of 21 or younger when he was with Washington, and at 20 he became the oldest player young man with five home runs in the postseason.
Soto’s OPS in the playoffs through age 25 surpassed Mantle (.900) and Derek Jeter (.852).
How much money will Soto get?
He will likely seek a record contract, surpassing the $700 million, 10-year deal that Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers last December. That doesn’t necessarily mean Soto will get more than $700 million, however.
Because Ohtani’s deal included $680 million in deferred money payable through 2043, it can be valued by different methods.
For example, Ohtani’s contract is valued at $46.1 million per season ($461 million total) under the major leagues’ luxury tax system, which used a 4.43% discount rate. The players’ union uses a 5% rate, which puts Ohtani’s contract at $43.8 million per year.
For regular Major League payroll calculations, a 10% discount rate values Ohtani’s deal at just $28.2 million.
This means that if Soto gets even $462 million with no deferred payments, it can be argued that his deal is the most valuable in major league history.
By average annual value, pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are tied for second in baseball history with $43.33 million as part of the contracts they signed with the New York Mets that expired at the end of the 2024 season.
In terms of total value, Ohtani surpassed outfielder Mike Trout’s $426.5 million, 12-year contract with the Los Angeles Angels, which runs through 2030.
The longest contract in Major League Baseball is outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year deal with the San Diego Padres, which doesn’t expire until 2034.
How could the major leagues’ luxury tax influence teams’ offers for Soto?
The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies likely enter 2025 having paid luxury tax for three consecutive years. This would place them at the highest rate: a 50% surcharge on the payroll of between 241 million and 261 million dollars, 62% between 261 million and 281 million, 95% between 281 million and 301 million, and 110% for every dollar above 301 million.
Toronto may have fallen below the initial tax threshold this year, pending final figures to be released next month. If the Blue Jays fell below, their rates next year would reset to 20%, 32%, 62.5% and 80% for the four thresholds.
The winter meetings would be an appropriate place for Boras to announce a record deal
If Soto reaches or announces a deal at the winter meetings at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas, it would be a known location for a big Boras deal.
Alex Rodriguez’s record $252 million, 10-year contract with the Texas Rangers was announced in December 2000 at what was then called the Wyndham Anatole Hotel. A-Rod’s deal more than doubled the previous major league high, an eight-year, $121 million deal between pitcher Mike Hampton and Colorado that was announced just two days earlier.
“In two days, we have doubled a new higher salary,” said Sandy Alderson, then executive vice president in the commissioner’s office. “I don’t like the exponential nature of that.”
Rodríguez was 25 years old at the time of the deal with Texas. He was a free agent before entering what was seen as his best moment, like Soto.
Besides Soto, what free agent hitters are available?
Third baseman Alex Bregman, first basemen Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, as well as two outfielders, Venezuelan Anthony Santander and Dominican Teoscar Hernández, are among the significant bats available to chase.
They will probably interest some of the teams that fail to sign Soto.
Bregman and Alonso, like Soto, are represented by Boras.
